Getting back to JLM's point about the seat count, there is a real possibility of a 100 seats.
I have been working on this very hard, as I will be part of a radio panel on election night.
If you look at popular vote vs translation to seats, you begin to see the pattern of where
those seats will come from. Quebec will deliver I think anywhere from 25 to 30 seats.
Ontario, will see the NDP pick up some of those Liberal seats as they fight the Tories and
New Democrats come up the middle. The Green vote is spread very thin across the
country for their 7% but NDP strength is developing in all five regions. Look for considerable
gains in suburban Ontario and in the core of cities. The Conservatives have their base true
but like BC they will be under pressure from the NDP this time and that leaves some of those
seats vulnerable to Liberals coming up the middle as the two front runners split and this is
where the Tories are having trouble. Watch where they plug the leadership into those riding's
on the weekend.
On the Prairie, Manitoba will give the NDP some help, I predict Saskatchewan will be good for
two or three, and Alberta may deliver one more. BC is a battlefield for sure, as the NDP and the
Conservatives fight it out not for first and second place but for actual seats. A surge like this
is a signal that some of the vote split will favor the NDP this time, instead of the Conservatives.
One other thing should be pointed out here, the Liberals as of Sunday are showing signs of
imploding. A fall from 25 or 26% in about three or four days shows the soft vote is leaving the
Liberals. They are at 22%. If that happens the Liberal left is going NDP. What will the soft
right do? I predict it will go to the New Democrats, the Greens or just stay home. This is too
bitter a campaign for the Liberals to actually translate votes into Conservative support.
On the Eastern Seaboard, the NDP will make gains, but it depends on what the Liberal vote
does, whether the Liberals hang onto what they have. here Conservatives could actually pick
up a few in the vote split.
The real questions are for after the election. If the Liberals implode, where do the Paul Martin's
and the right wing of the party go? My view, to the Conservatives. If the Liberals collapse
and have fewer than 70 seats their come back will be difficult. Many of their leading figures will
be gone, their leadership broken and their money supply will dwindle. This is a serious crossroad
for the party. Here is what happens when you install a leader that does not have the grassroots
of the party fully engaged. I will say that Mr Harper and Jack Layton both enjoy the support of their
party members and to one extent or another, the general public. Ignatieff, on the other hand has
no allegiance from the public or his own party. The only thing Iggy had was the arrogance to
believe the masses didn't matter they would just follow because he was leading them with
intellect. Politics is about opinion, intellect and passion which of course brings in blind ignorance.
So that is where we are. Yes I still think Harper will have more seats, the NDP will be second,
and the Liberals third, but there won't be a coalition of any kind until Iggy is gone at least.
Now we all have something to argue about on this thread.