A blue flood!!!
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“A blue flood, more than just a wave”: 8 experts on midterm elections after the Ohio special election
By Li Zhou
https://www.vox.com/2018/8/10/17670562/ohio-special-election-blue-wave
Travis Ridout, public policy professor, Washington State University
The closeness of the special election in Ohio — in a historically Republican district — suggests that Democratic voters are motivated to a much greater extent than Republican voters this year. Even millions in spending on political ads may not be enough to enthuse GOP voters this fall.
If a “blue wave” means greater-than-average Democratic participation in the midterm elections, then the chances of that happening are very high. But how many more congressional seats that nets for Democrats is still a big question. On the low end, it could be as few as a dozen. On the high end, it could be 40 seats.
Margie Omero, Democratic pollster, GBA Strategies
The results so far in OH-12 — remember thousands of ballots are still being counted — should give Republicans everywhere yet another sign of the momentum on the left. There was higher turnout than usual in suburban Franklin County. Republican groups spent millions more than did Democrats. Republicans couldn’t find something that really stuck, and so they used scattered messaging and frequent traffic changes. And, perhaps most importantly, there are 79 districts where Trump performed worse.
Democrats have had the advantage in the generic all cycle. Republicans are showing no signs of changing their fortunes. The question isn’t whether there is a wave but just how high. Will it be high enough to take back the House? The Senate? State legislative chambers around the country? In past waves, things started to break late. We’ll probably see that this year, too.
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