2016 Presidential Campaign
- Thread starter Kreskin
- Start date
Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly
Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984.
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.
And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.
The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/
/election
Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984.
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.
And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.
The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/
/election
Oh, I like this line!
"If you would make us the laughingstock of the world just to irk your liberal sister-in-law, you are someone who should not be allowed to come within 500 yards of an elementary school."
-- Garrison Keillor
"If you would make us the laughingstock of the world just to irk your liberal sister-in-law, you are someone who should not be allowed to come within 500 yards of an elementary school."
-- Garrison Keillor
. . of another person would be better as most adults in the US are child-like at the best of times.
lol, the 2nd vid is a classic.
HILLARY TURNS MANIC IN NEW VIDEO… Proposes 65% Top Rate for Estate Tax… Eyes — a window into her health issues « InvestmentWatch
lol, the 2nd vid is a classic.
HILLARY TURNS MANIC IN NEW VIDEO… Proposes 65% Top Rate for Estate Tax… Eyes — a window into her health issues « InvestmentWatch
You made that unsubstantiated, spurious claim before. That is sufficient to eradicate any credibility you have or ever hope to have.
Of course he isn't running for president.
Also, I think the proper possessive of Brooks is Brooks' not Brooks's.
To the best of my knowledge, he's running FROM president.
John Brooks says it's Brooks's. You wanna argue with John Brooks? Go right ahead. I hear y'all got free health care.
To the best of my knowledge, he's running FROM president.
John Brooks says it's Brooks's. You wanna argue with John Brooks? Go right ahead. I hear y'all got free health care.
Well, Bill Gates underlines Brooks's in IE11.
I think so too.. without doing any of the polling and Electoral College analytics.. i just look at the broad themes of the election.. and the capacity to elicit change in the two major candidates.
I view Trump as the only candidate who can change directions from the disastrous economic, social and foreign policies of the last 45 years. A vote for Hillary is a vote for doubling down on the failed policies that have brought America and West to the brink of collapse.
There is an overarching social dimension to electoral processes, something like Jung's Collective Unconcious.. some sense of destiny.. that directs political and cultural movements. The West is on the verge of revolutionary change (or self destruction). More accurately it is due for a course correction back to its originating civilizational impulse. That shows in Brexit, in the rise of Sanders and Trump.. and many other indications.
All of the trivial dissecting of race, gender, state, issues and priorities will be subordinate to that.
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Five paths to victory for Trump
Electoral Mapmaking
One of the most pervasive myths in American politics is that a “Big Blue Wall" will protect Democratic presidential nominees, perhaps even those who lose the popular vote. In truth, this electoral Blue Wall is more like a collection of disconnected forts—some imposing, some not—and the loss of any one of them would likely doom the Democratic nominee.
The Blue Wall—states where the Democrats have won every presidential race since 1992—includes the entire Northeast except for New Hampshire, the Midwestern Great Lakes states aside from Ohio and Indiana, the three Pacific Coast states, and Hawaii. Even holding the wall is no guarantee of victory.
John Kerry won the entire Blue Wall in 2004, plus New Hampshire, yet still lost to George W. Bush by 35 electoral votes. Al Gore won the entire Blue Wall in 2000—back when it was worth 13 more electoral votes—plus Iowa and New Mexico, yet still lost to Bush by 5 electoral votes. For the Democrats, holding the Blue Wall is necessary but not sufficient.
mo
Electoral Mapmaking | The Weekly Standard
Electoral Mapmaking
One of the most pervasive myths in American politics is that a “Big Blue Wall" will protect Democratic presidential nominees, perhaps even those who lose the popular vote. In truth, this electoral Blue Wall is more like a collection of disconnected forts—some imposing, some not—and the loss of any one of them would likely doom the Democratic nominee.
The Blue Wall—states where the Democrats have won every presidential race since 1992—includes the entire Northeast except for New Hampshire, the Midwestern Great Lakes states aside from Ohio and Indiana, the three Pacific Coast states, and Hawaii. Even holding the wall is no guarantee of victory.
John Kerry won the entire Blue Wall in 2004, plus New Hampshire, yet still lost to George W. Bush by 35 electoral votes. Al Gore won the entire Blue Wall in 2000—back when it was worth 13 more electoral votes—plus Iowa and New Mexico, yet still lost to Bush by 5 electoral votes. For the Democrats, holding the Blue Wall is necessary but not sufficient.
mo
Electoral Mapmaking | The Weekly Standard
