Canadian Federal Election Outcome October 20th (or 27th?), 2025.

pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
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68 seats now. How low does that need to go to spell minority? Actually, assuming all other counts hold (they aren't -- they have fallen in the maritimes too) that number is 49. I don't think a Conservative Majority is as clear cut as it was.
The amount of Liberals still jumping ship has me thinking otherwise .
 

pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
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Someone (a Liberal MP in the Ottawa or Ottawa adjacent MP arena) is going to surrender their seat to Carney, without an election it bye-bye-election…otherwise you’d be correct.

Yep, take nothing for granted, & all of that so far without Carney having to answer a single unscripted question to date. What happens when he actually has to interact with Canadians, unscripted, both inside and outside of parliament?

Most media will toss him softball scripted questions…but not all…& even at his announcement that he was running he was already censoring certain media from participating for that exact reason.
How can an MP surrender their seat ? If that is allowed why do we bother with by elections ?
 

IdRatherBeSkiing

Satelitte Radio Addict
May 28, 2007
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Yep, take nothing for granted, & all of that so far without Carney having to answer a single unscripted question to date. What happens when he actually has to interact with Canadians, unscripted, both inside and outside of parliament?

Most media will toss him softball scripted questions…but not all…& even at his announcement that he was running he was already censoring certain media from participating for that exact reason.
I see this happening. Carney is made leader. Let's say he does not unperogue parliament and just goes straight into federal election. And maybe a series of interviews with CBC reporters only and he won't get any tough questions. Add a smear campaign and a bit of luck ..... maybe a Trump thrown in on the side ... and who knows.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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How can an MP surrender their seat ? If that is allowed why do we bother with by elections ?
I believe the Libs have done this before in 1984 with John Turner, to replace Pierre Trudeau, & Turner wasn’t an MP at the time.

Trudeau (Sr) had just stacked the Senate much like Trudeau (the lessor) is currently doing, & Turner (the Carney of 1984) claimed he had no choice but to honour Trudeau (Papa Trudeau)’s wishes, etc…sound vaguely familiar? Within nine weeks Turner lost to Brian Mulroney who ended up with the largest majority in Canadian history with 211 seats.
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(I’m expecting Poilievre’s win to be bigger)

Can’t remember if somebody surrendered their seat to Turner, or if he went straight to an election within a couple of weeks, but don’t put anything past the liberals. Trudeau's resignation in 1984 triggered a leadership election, which Turner successfully contested. Turner held the office of prime minister for just 79 days, as he advised the governor general to dissolve Parliament soon after being sworn in. He went on to lose the 1984 election in a landslide. I’m hoping history repeats itself on someone parachuting in on the tail of Trudeau stank.

The defining scandal of the 1984 general election was that in Pierre Trudeau’s final days, he had approved roughly 200 patronage appointments to Liberal Party stalwarts — including making cabinet minister Bryce Mackasey the ambassador to Portugal. None of the appointments were illegal; they just seemed skeezy, particularly when Trudeau’s successor John Turner refused to reverse them.

Trudeau (the recent) stacked up scandals & ethics violations like his old man couldn’t even fathom, & I expected a trouncing proportional to this to take place.

Nowadays, the ArriveCan scandal alone threatens to dwarf the relative political malfeasance of making 200 patronage appointments. While the details are still coming out, it could well involve tens of millions in misallocated federal monies.

Add to that a series of scandals involving alleged political interference in the justice system (the SNC Lavalin scandal, the Brenda Lucki affair) as well as no shortage of patronage appointments.

Just last year, Ottawa spent weeks being wracked by controversy that the Liberals’ special rapporteur for foreign interference was David Johnston, a former governor general who literally used to ski with the Trudeau family.🤫

Both Trudeaus stand out for their reckless disregard for fiscal responsibility. In just nine years, Justin Trudeau has effectively doubled the federal debt, with COVID spending representing a significant chunk of that.

But the elder Trudeau still managed to run up the national credit card at levels that remain jaw-dropping.
 

Retired_Can_Soldier

The End of the Dog is Coming!
Mar 19, 2006
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It's not about who is there 99-88-77-68 over the last 4 weeks. It is.a trend.

Please note, I am not happy about it but it would be foolish not to notice it.
I think PP needs to get off the slogans and tell Canada what they are in for if they re-elect this obtuse Utopian Cult.
It could be the bump in Quebec, but Kamalla got a bump. Right now, all the Liberals are doing is America is evil, and Trump and...
But if we go to an election, Carney will have to face Poilievre, and he will be eviscerated on issues like people are still in tents, people still can't find housing, and drugs and crime are rampant. I was robbed three times last year. I think were going to have to rethink everything, and the Liberals can't think past their own political skin.
 
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pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
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If Carney is elected, we will be ripe pickings for Trump.
Regardless who is elected we are ripe for the picking . Our dollar has sunk to the 70 cent level thanks to our current governments policies . Our devalued dollar only helps exporters . Canada’s strategy of adding tariffs to goods bought in American dollars is a killer to both consumers and importers . We have no or little leverage at this time .
 

pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
28,301
7,927
113
B.C.
I think PP needs to get off the slogans and tell Canada what they are in for if they re-elect this obtuse Utopian Cult.
It could be the bump in Quebec, but Kamalla got a bump. Right now, all the Liberals are doing is America is evil, and Trump and...
But if we go to an election, Carney will have to face Poilievre, and he will be eviscerated on issues like people are still in tents, people still can't find housing, and drugs and crime are rampant. I was robbed three times last year. I think were going to have to rethink everything, and the Liberals can't think past their own political skin.
All true .
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
27,817
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Regina, Saskatchewan
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The longer Still PM Trudeau can keep parliament prorogued while still throwing around taxpayer dollars like Liberal campaign funds…while Carney is able to avoid any tough questions whatsoever while also benefiting from parliament being prorogued by the Liberals…the better it is for them.
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Question is, how long can the Liberals drag this out past March 10th 2025 without Carney having to actually answer any questions?
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IdRatherBeSkiing

Satelitte Radio Addict
May 28, 2007
15,145
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Toronto, ON
68 seats now. How low does that need to go to spell minority? Actually, assuming all other counts hold (they aren't -- they have fallen in the maritimes too) that number is 49. I don't think a Conservative Majority is as clear cut as it was.

Down to 61.

Updated: 99-88-77-68-61 over the last 5 weeks.
 

Taxslave2

House Member
Aug 13, 2022
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How can an MP surrender their seat ? If that is allowed why do we bother with by elections ?
They don't exactly surrender their seat. The MP in a safe riding retires, forcing a byelection, which can be 6 months down the road. The way things are, there are not many safe liberal seats, and those that are may not want to take one for team Carnaval.