On the eve of the official kick-off of the Ontario provincial election, Kathleen Wynne’s governing Liberals have fallen to third place and the second-place NDP has considerable room to grow, according to a shocking new poll.
The online poll of 1,010 eligible voters, conducted on May 3 and 4 for Maclean’s by Pollara Strategic Insights, shows that support for the Liberals has declined since other recent public polls. Among decided voters, the Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford enjoy a strong lead with 40 per cent support. The NDP led by Andrea Horwath is in second place with 30 per cent. That leaves Wynne’s Liberals way back with 23 per cent.
The campaign is moving into a more intense and unpredictable phase. The first televised leaders’ debate is Monday night on CITY, followed by the dissolution of the legislature and the formal campaign launch on Wednesday. “This campaign’s going to matter,” Don Guy, the owner and chief strategy officer of Pollara, told Maclean’s. But his results show further room for the Liberals to fall and for the NDP to climb. Strong support as respondents’ second choice suggests Horwath’s NDP “has a lot of room to grow,” Guy said, whereas Wynne and the Liberals “aren’t even close to bottom yet.”
Asked their second choice for party preference, 33 per cent named the NDP. The provincial Green party, led by Mike Schreiner, was second with 16 per cent naming it as their second choice. The Liberals and Progressive Conservatives were each mentioned by only 11 per cent. Second-choice support often doesn’t translate into votes, but it’s considered a good way to see which parties might gain support if at some point voters become disillusioned by the party they originally supported.
The Maclean's-Pollara Ontario Election Poll: Welcome to third place, Liberals - Macleans.ca
