John Ivison: Harper has his mojo back — PM gaining support thanks to foreign policy triumphs and tax cuts | National Post
One year ago, Stephen Harper rose in the House of Commons for the 12th time that day to answer a question from NDP leader, Tom Mulcair, on the Mike Duffy affair.
He had the look of a whipped dog.
That evening at a Christmas party, Conservatives mused openly about whether the Prime Minister would step down early in the New Year.
The Senate scandal was taking its toll – polling averages suggested the Conservatives were trailing the Liberals by 10 percentage points – and, crucially, their leader carried the bearing of a jaded, beaten man.
Harper has had a good autumn as all the issues are his issues and he is on the right side of them
Yet a year later, Mr. Harper has his mojo back. When Mr. Mulcair tried to take him to task for the government’s record on veterans during Question Period, the Prime Minister responded like a hungry Rottweiler. Listing the government’s funding increases, he pointed out the NDP had voted against many of the measures. “That’s the difference between the rhetoric over there and the action over here,” he roared, against the backdrop of a standing ovation from his caucus.
Changed days, indeed. The Senate scandal is yesterday’s news (for now) and events have started breaking the Prime Minister’s way.
Nanos Research said Wednesday that Mr. Harper hit a 12 month high, when respondents were asked to name their preferred prime minister. Three months ago, Justin Trudeau held a six point lead but now it’s Mr. Harper who is ahead by four points.
Mr. Harper’s personal brand is critical to Conservative fortunes because the party’s success is built around its leader.
The Conservatives still trail the Liberals by around four points, when all public opinion polls are averaged out, but the shift in momentum has been dramatic.
The catalyst to the prime minister’s improving fortunes was the decision to send military support to Iraq. Mr. Harper’s decisiveness stood in stark contrast to Mr. Trudeau’s muddled opposition – “we support the troops but not the combat mission.”
Ever since, Mr. Trudeau has been losing support and Mr. Harper gaining, as the security issue has risen on the list of voters’ concerns.
At the same time, there have been signs of economic recovery, such as the prospect of balanced budgets and an unemployment rate that is at its lowest level in six years.
The impending surplus has allowed the Prime Minister to drive a wedge between the Conservatives and the opposition, in the form of the family tax relief package, that will spend the surplus cash before the Liberals or NDP can get their hands on it.
“It will be like Christmas in July when those cheques start landing on doorsteps,” said one MP. “It will give the Prime Minister the right to tell Canadians that Trudeau and Mulcair will take the money out of their hands.”
Toss in foreign policy triumphs such as the Francophonie, a trip to China and a blunt slapdown of Vladimir Putin at the G20 in Australia, and it has been a solid three months for the Prime Minister.
The opposition parties, by contrast, have not helped themselves by their failure to deal with the harassment issue on Parliament Hill.
“It makes Stephen Harper look like the only person who should be in charge,” said Bruce Carson, a former senior adviser in the Prime Minister’s Office. “He has had a good autumn as all the issues are his issues and he is on the right side of them.”
There may still be trouble ahead. The falling oil price could yet frustrate Mr. Harper’s best laid fiscal schemes.
The furor over Veterans Affairs minister, Julian Fantino, continues to cause headaches in the PMO.
And then there is the trial of Mr. Duffy in the spring. There have been suggestions that the Prime Minister might call an early election to avoid revisiting his Senate scandal nightmare of last year.
One year ago, Stephen Harper rose in the House of Commons for the 12th time that day to answer a question from NDP leader, Tom Mulcair, on the Mike Duffy affair.
He had the look of a whipped dog.
That evening at a Christmas party, Conservatives mused openly about whether the Prime Minister would step down early in the New Year.
The Senate scandal was taking its toll – polling averages suggested the Conservatives were trailing the Liberals by 10 percentage points – and, crucially, their leader carried the bearing of a jaded, beaten man.
Harper has had a good autumn as all the issues are his issues and he is on the right side of them
Yet a year later, Mr. Harper has his mojo back. When Mr. Mulcair tried to take him to task for the government’s record on veterans during Question Period, the Prime Minister responded like a hungry Rottweiler. Listing the government’s funding increases, he pointed out the NDP had voted against many of the measures. “That’s the difference between the rhetoric over there and the action over here,” he roared, against the backdrop of a standing ovation from his caucus.
Changed days, indeed. The Senate scandal is yesterday’s news (for now) and events have started breaking the Prime Minister’s way.
Nanos Research said Wednesday that Mr. Harper hit a 12 month high, when respondents were asked to name their preferred prime minister. Three months ago, Justin Trudeau held a six point lead but now it’s Mr. Harper who is ahead by four points.
Mr. Harper’s personal brand is critical to Conservative fortunes because the party’s success is built around its leader.
The Conservatives still trail the Liberals by around four points, when all public opinion polls are averaged out, but the shift in momentum has been dramatic.
The catalyst to the prime minister’s improving fortunes was the decision to send military support to Iraq. Mr. Harper’s decisiveness stood in stark contrast to Mr. Trudeau’s muddled opposition – “we support the troops but not the combat mission.”
Ever since, Mr. Trudeau has been losing support and Mr. Harper gaining, as the security issue has risen on the list of voters’ concerns.
At the same time, there have been signs of economic recovery, such as the prospect of balanced budgets and an unemployment rate that is at its lowest level in six years.
The impending surplus has allowed the Prime Minister to drive a wedge between the Conservatives and the opposition, in the form of the family tax relief package, that will spend the surplus cash before the Liberals or NDP can get their hands on it.
“It will be like Christmas in July when those cheques start landing on doorsteps,” said one MP. “It will give the Prime Minister the right to tell Canadians that Trudeau and Mulcair will take the money out of their hands.”
Toss in foreign policy triumphs such as the Francophonie, a trip to China and a blunt slapdown of Vladimir Putin at the G20 in Australia, and it has been a solid three months for the Prime Minister.
The opposition parties, by contrast, have not helped themselves by their failure to deal with the harassment issue on Parliament Hill.
“It makes Stephen Harper look like the only person who should be in charge,” said Bruce Carson, a former senior adviser in the Prime Minister’s Office. “He has had a good autumn as all the issues are his issues and he is on the right side of them.”
There may still be trouble ahead. The falling oil price could yet frustrate Mr. Harper’s best laid fiscal schemes.
The furor over Veterans Affairs minister, Julian Fantino, continues to cause headaches in the PMO.
And then there is the trial of Mr. Duffy in the spring. There have been suggestions that the Prime Minister might call an early election to avoid revisiting his Senate scandal nightmare of last year.
