Extreme heat, drought have ‘virtually no explanation other than climate change’
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U.S. drought may increase Canadian food prices by 4 per cent
Food prices may grow by as much as four per cent next year, economists predict, as drought conditions in the U.S. are expected to inflate the cost of everything from pork to cereal.
RBC economist Paul Ferley says the increases will be similar to those seen in 2011, when demand from emerging economies like China and India pushed food prices higher.
“Growth there is slowing, so we would have expected a bit of moderation in commodity and food prices, but because of the drought it looks like we’ll be getting another wave,” said Mr. Ferley.
He predicts that food costs will go up by 2.5 to 3.5 per cent in 2012 and three to four per cent in 2013.
Extreme drought conditions in several U.S. Midwest states are causing corn and soybean crops to wither, and analysts say the effects will ripple through the food chain.
Because corn is used to feed livestock in the U.S., the rising cost of beef and pork will be most noticeable on grocery store shelves, said Patricia Mohr, a commodity markets specialist at Scotiabank. Poultry may also be affected.
“This will trickle through the cost of production for food, and eventually will have an impact at the grocery store,” said Ms. Mohr.
“It’s hard to say exactly when this will show up.”
Some types of grain have been affected by the drought, which may inflate the price of baked goods and pasta, said Ms. Mohr.
Fructose and corn syrup, which are used in many kinds of processed food, may become more pricey, as well as items made from canola-like margarine and salad dressing.
Many Canadian food producers are either already feeling the pinch or planning for the future.
Tim Hortons raised the price of certain baked goods and lunch items last week, citing higher operating costs and pricier ingredients. The coffee and doughnut chain said the price of a muffin is five cents higher, while sandwiches have gone up by about 10 cents. The price of coffee has not changed.
And Maple Leaf Foods president and CEO Michael McCain warned last week that the food processor will have to jack up its prices.
Because Maple Leaf buys ingredients in advance, consumers likely won’t see higher prices for its products until the end of this year, Mr. McCain said.
“We don’t know exactly what the extent or the timing is of any price increases attached to this because the story of this year’s crop conditions is still not fully told,” said Mr. McCain.
“As this unfolds into the fall we’ll have a much better picture.”
Analysts also noted last week that food producers from bakery giant George Weston to pop and juice maker Cott Corp. could face higher costs on their key ingredients like flour and sugar.
But they also said that grocery stores, facing an increasingly competitive market, may be hesitant to pass the costs on to consumers.
“Competitive pressures could temper the ability of retailers to pass through these cost increases,” said Mr. Ferley.
National grocery chains Loblaw, Metro, and Sobeys parent Empire Co. Ltd. have faced fierce competition, particularly in Ontario, from each other and retailers like Shoppers Drug Mart and Walmart who are increasing their food offerings.
Food producers squeezed as U.S. drought is expected to inflate costs - The Globe and Mail
Food prices may grow by as much as four per cent next year, economists predict, as drought conditions in the U.S. are expected to inflate the cost of everything from pork to cereal.
RBC economist Paul Ferley says the increases will be similar to those seen in 2011, when demand from emerging economies like China and India pushed food prices higher.
“Growth there is slowing, so we would have expected a bit of moderation in commodity and food prices, but because of the drought it looks like we’ll be getting another wave,” said Mr. Ferley.
He predicts that food costs will go up by 2.5 to 3.5 per cent in 2012 and three to four per cent in 2013.
Extreme drought conditions in several U.S. Midwest states are causing corn and soybean crops to wither, and analysts say the effects will ripple through the food chain.
Because corn is used to feed livestock in the U.S., the rising cost of beef and pork will be most noticeable on grocery store shelves, said Patricia Mohr, a commodity markets specialist at Scotiabank. Poultry may also be affected.
“This will trickle through the cost of production for food, and eventually will have an impact at the grocery store,” said Ms. Mohr.
“It’s hard to say exactly when this will show up.”
Some types of grain have been affected by the drought, which may inflate the price of baked goods and pasta, said Ms. Mohr.
Fructose and corn syrup, which are used in many kinds of processed food, may become more pricey, as well as items made from canola-like margarine and salad dressing.
Many Canadian food producers are either already feeling the pinch or planning for the future.
Tim Hortons raised the price of certain baked goods and lunch items last week, citing higher operating costs and pricier ingredients. The coffee and doughnut chain said the price of a muffin is five cents higher, while sandwiches have gone up by about 10 cents. The price of coffee has not changed.
And Maple Leaf Foods president and CEO Michael McCain warned last week that the food processor will have to jack up its prices.
Because Maple Leaf buys ingredients in advance, consumers likely won’t see higher prices for its products until the end of this year, Mr. McCain said.
“We don’t know exactly what the extent or the timing is of any price increases attached to this because the story of this year’s crop conditions is still not fully told,” said Mr. McCain.
“As this unfolds into the fall we’ll have a much better picture.”
Analysts also noted last week that food producers from bakery giant George Weston to pop and juice maker Cott Corp. could face higher costs on their key ingredients like flour and sugar.
But they also said that grocery stores, facing an increasingly competitive market, may be hesitant to pass the costs on to consumers.
“Competitive pressures could temper the ability of retailers to pass through these cost increases,” said Mr. Ferley.
National grocery chains Loblaw, Metro, and Sobeys parent Empire Co. Ltd. have faced fierce competition, particularly in Ontario, from each other and retailers like Shoppers Drug Mart and Walmart who are increasing their food offerings.
Food producers squeezed as U.S. drought is expected to inflate costs - The Globe and Mail
Re: Extreme heat, drought have ‘virtually no explanation other than climate change’
It would be better if food prices went up because we recognize the importance of food and the costs of production rather than being forced into it by global warming. I think the important thing here is that global warming is the new main factor in food production costs. Up until now we have had the usual suspects, fuel, water, fertilizers and pesticides, machinery, and processors and retailers. but from what I see there is now going to be shortages.
It would be better if food prices went up because we recognize the importance of food and the costs of production rather than being forced into it by global warming. I think the important thing here is that global warming is the new main factor in food production costs. Up until now we have had the usual suspects, fuel, water, fertilizers and pesticides, machinery, and processors and retailers. but from what I see there is now going to be shortages.
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Shortages? No. Global warming a problem? No.
Africa, all by it's lonesome, could feed the planet if ag in Africa were modernized.
Africa, all by it's lonesome, could feed the planet if ag in Africa were modernized.
Re: Extreme heat, drought have ‘virtually no explanation other than climate change’
Except of course that Africa stands to suffer disproportionally from global warming, and except for our having crossed over peak oil from which modernized agriculture has gotten its great gains everywhere else.
Except of course that Africa stands to suffer disproportionally from global warming, and except for our having crossed over peak oil from which modernized agriculture has gotten its great gains everywhere else.
Where did you get that idea? What was Africa like last time the temps were even higher during the Bronze Age?
Re: Extreme heat, drought have ‘virtually no explanation other than climate change’
What Africa was like last time is irrelevant because this time isn't like anytime in history. There are a few more people now than there has been in the past, the planets reources, including Africas oil, are being used up at a rate somewhat higher than they have been in the past, the worlds economy is considerably less stable than it was, for example during the bronze age, global warming is happening faster with less adaptive time than at any time in history, and as to where I got the idea, try this from the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture - Factsheet on Sub-Saharan Africa | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
"
The crop model indicates that in 2050 in Sub-Saharan Africa, average rice, wheat, and maize yields will decline by up to 14 percent, 22 percent, and 5 percent, respectively, as a result of climate change.
Irrigation water supply reliability, the ratio of water consumption to requirements, is expected to worsen in Sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change.
Without climate change, calorie availability is expected to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2050. With climate change, however, food availability in the region will average 500 calories less per person in 2050, a 21 percent decline."
What Africa was like last time is irrelevant because this time isn't like anytime in history. There are a few more people now than there has been in the past, the planets reources, including Africas oil, are being used up at a rate somewhat higher than they have been in the past, the worlds economy is considerably less stable than it was, for example during the bronze age, global warming is happening faster with less adaptive time than at any time in history, and as to where I got the idea, try this from the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture - Factsheet on Sub-Saharan Africa | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
"
The crop model indicates that in 2050 in Sub-Saharan Africa, average rice, wheat, and maize yields will decline by up to 14 percent, 22 percent, and 5 percent, respectively, as a result of climate change.
Irrigation water supply reliability, the ratio of water consumption to requirements, is expected to worsen in Sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change.
Without climate change, calorie availability is expected to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2050. With climate change, however, food availability in the region will average 500 calories less per person in 2050, a 21 percent decline."
Not at all. Warmer temps in the past brought the monsoons northward, it wasn't until the earth cooled more that the Sahara formed. IF it warms up enough, Africa will see far more rain and will be very lush.
Isn't that great?
Re: Extreme heat, drought have ‘virtually no explanation other than climate change’
Not at all eh? once again I will ask you to produce a reference for your comments. One fact that backs up your different views.
Not at all eh? once again I will ask you to produce a reference for your comments. One fact that backs up your different views.
If you want to learn something new. Look into modern ag and the ag in Africa that this "prediction' was based.
If a yak could seed and harvest 2 acres a minute without tilling the land, they'd be in incredible shape for food in Africa..
Tanzanian President: Africa Can Feed the World - YouTube
Kofi Annan: Africa can feed the world
Wednesday, 23 February 2011
Africa has the land and the people to develop an agricultural system that can provide enough surplus to ensure global food security in decades to come, Kofi Annan, Chairman of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), said this week at the annual meeting of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
Annan, a former United Nations Secretary-General, said that good progress towards this goal is already being made, thanks to "creative thinking, effective partnerships, leadership from governments and the efforts of smallholder farmers" and that continued efforts to target resources will "enable Africa to create a surplus for global export". He addressed governors from IFAD's 167 Member States gathered at the Fund's Rome headquarters for its 34th Governing Council.
In his remarks, Annan recalled a number of factors that have led to a decline in the agricultural sector in Africa and an increase in the number of poor rural people. These include the continent's exclusion from advances in farming technologies, poor management of resources, weak economic and infrastructure links, an unbalanced global trade regime and a dramatic decline in aid from overseas in the past three decades.
"Lack of accessible credit and other financial services have also been a huge brake on agricultural development. But all that is beginning to change thanks to innovative efforts to work with banks to share risk and boost lending for agriculture," he said.
Annan noted that partnerships involving IFAD and AGRA have leveraged US$160 million in affordable loans to agriculture from commercial banks in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania.
Annan urged IFAD Governing Council delegates to support policies and investments for Africa that support the expansion of staple food crops, a coherent approach to investment across the agricultural value chain and, importantly, a focus on smallholder farmers, whom he called "the mainstay of African agriculture".
In his address to the Governing Council, IFAD President Kanayo F. Nwanze sounded a note of optimism on the potential of emerging agricultural markets and value chains, which he said "offer opportunities for poor rural people to generate more income than ever before, but only if they are able to offset the high entry costs." He also said, "The first step is recognizing that farming of any scale is an economic activity, a business. And businesses need clear links along the value chain - from production to processing, marketing and consumption."
Nwanze also noted that supporting young women and men is critical to building vibrant rural economies, which in turn is key to overcoming larger challenges such as reducing hunger and poverty, mitigating climate change, achieving energy security and protecting the environment.
"Current events show the energy, creativity and power of young people, and also the importance of ensuring that they can see a future for themselves in the societies in which they live," he said.
Source: APO
If a yak could seed and harvest 2 acres a minute without tilling the land, they'd be in incredible shape for food in Africa..
Tanzanian President: Africa Can Feed the World - YouTube
Kofi Annan: Africa can feed the world
Wednesday, 23 February 2011
Africa has the land and the people to develop an agricultural system that can provide enough surplus to ensure global food security in decades to come, Kofi Annan, Chairman of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), said this week at the annual meeting of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
Annan, a former United Nations Secretary-General, said that good progress towards this goal is already being made, thanks to "creative thinking, effective partnerships, leadership from governments and the efforts of smallholder farmers" and that continued efforts to target resources will "enable Africa to create a surplus for global export". He addressed governors from IFAD's 167 Member States gathered at the Fund's Rome headquarters for its 34th Governing Council.
In his remarks, Annan recalled a number of factors that have led to a decline in the agricultural sector in Africa and an increase in the number of poor rural people. These include the continent's exclusion from advances in farming technologies, poor management of resources, weak economic and infrastructure links, an unbalanced global trade regime and a dramatic decline in aid from overseas in the past three decades.
"Lack of accessible credit and other financial services have also been a huge brake on agricultural development. But all that is beginning to change thanks to innovative efforts to work with banks to share risk and boost lending for agriculture," he said.
Annan noted that partnerships involving IFAD and AGRA have leveraged US$160 million in affordable loans to agriculture from commercial banks in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania.
Annan urged IFAD Governing Council delegates to support policies and investments for Africa that support the expansion of staple food crops, a coherent approach to investment across the agricultural value chain and, importantly, a focus on smallholder farmers, whom he called "the mainstay of African agriculture".
In his address to the Governing Council, IFAD President Kanayo F. Nwanze sounded a note of optimism on the potential of emerging agricultural markets and value chains, which he said "offer opportunities for poor rural people to generate more income than ever before, but only if they are able to offset the high entry costs." He also said, "The first step is recognizing that farming of any scale is an economic activity, a business. And businesses need clear links along the value chain - from production to processing, marketing and consumption."
Nwanze also noted that supporting young women and men is critical to building vibrant rural economies, which in turn is key to overcoming larger challenges such as reducing hunger and poverty, mitigating climate change, achieving energy security and protecting the environment.
"Current events show the energy, creativity and power of young people, and also the importance of ensuring that they can see a future for themselves in the societies in which they live," he said.
Source: APO
Yes, and you have just laid your confusion bare: the climate and the weather are two different things. As I point out, three body dynamics are also subject to unpredictability. So if it were such an all or nothing thing, we would never be able to lift the rover (body 1) out of Earth's gravitational field (body 2) and safely land it on Mars (body 3).
The weather is not climate. It is a simple enough concept.
I've been watching these Olympics.. soggy with below average temperatures.. representative of Europe and Northern Asia as a whole. Do they have an explanation for that... NO.. they just ignore it. It's one of the those events.. that has nothing to do with AGW. :roll:.
Frankly the louder, more hysterical, and absurd they become.. the more they show their true colours and intent.. and reveal AGW as a purely political agenda.. that has nothing to do with science.. but everything to do with removing humans from the pristine idol of the biosphere. It's a philosophy.. more so.. it's a pagan spiritual system.
Frankly the louder, more hysterical, and absurd they become.. the more they show their true colours and intent.. and reveal AGW as a purely political agenda.. that has nothing to do with science.. but everything to do with removing humans from the pristine idol of the biosphere. It's a philosophy.. more so.. it's a pagan spiritual system.
No such thing as peak oil, every time they say we've hit the wall we find more oil.
It is funny that you quote Annan talking about getting help for the continents small holder/subsistence farmers under a picture of a large tractor pulling huge implements over a horizonless field. I expect you don't even see the ludicrous contradiction involved. If it was possible for the two and three acre farms that are the backbone of African society and food production to get such technology where are they, or we for that matter, going to get the fuel for that kind of farming as we run out of oil. In the face of global warming caused by our squandering of that valuable resource Africa will suffer with the rest of us from shortages and expensive food. But perhaps you have one fact that would show such pessimism to be unfounded. Still looking forward to that.
All the little farmers can get together to create a big farm. One can drive the modern electric tractor and the others can drag the extesion cord around while others blow on the windmill.
We aren't running out of oil. Hell no.
My background is biology. We are engineering nature, you don't seem to understand that.
That's what Peak Oil means.
It's funny to watch you displaying your lack of comprehension. I've got the popcorn.