This summer may see first ice-free North Pole

Tonington

Tonington

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captain morgan said:
The odds were 50/50 according to the coin-toss science which you are foolishly defending.
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Keep telling yourself that. The odds were 50/50 according to Mark Serreze, a polar researcher. A NASA ice rsarcher put it just under 50/50. Another researcher put it at about 1/4.

50/50 odds could have been wrong, but the fact that it didn't happen doesn't mean the odds were wrong.

I'm not actually defending the odds. If you understood some basics about probability besides a coin flip you might have grasped that.
 
Tonington

Tonington

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Hmm, funny how much has changed since April. The graph you posted updates Walt. Now well below 2007. Well below 2 standard deviations of the long-term average as well:


Ice area dipping as well:
 
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Redmonton_Rebel

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Stretch said:
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes...
Posted Jun 27, 2008 02:28 PM PST
Category: SCIENCE/HEALTH


So, it isn't your SUV that melted the polar ice cap. And by the way, even though the ice cap is supposed to be all but gone, New York City hasn't been flooded.

Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
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Your own article contradicts what you're saying.

The scientists say the heat released by the explosions is not contributing to the melting of the Arctic ice, but Sohn says the huge volumes of CO2 gas that belched out of the undersea volcanoes likely contributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. How much, he couldn’t say.
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And somehow I doubt that volcanic activity in the Arctic is melting ice cover worldwide, it's global warming doing the job, not volcanos almost 15,000 feet below the ocean surface.

And New York isn't going to be flooded when the Arctic ice cap melts, ice displaces the same amount of water that replaces it when it melts, it takes ice melting on land running into the sea to raise sea levels.
 
Praxius

Praxius

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A 4 year prediction that has yet to occur and has already past its prediction date.

Let me know when it actually all melts..... I've got better things to do than to worry about our so-called pending doom that never was.
 
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Redmonton_Rebel

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petros said:
No but our diminishing, moving magnetosphere with giant hole in it is.
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back under your bridge troll

Praxius said:
A 4 year prediction that has yet to occur and has already past its prediction date.

Let me know when it actually all melts..... I've got better things to do than to worry about our so-called pending doom that never was.
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It's a prediction of events that are influenced by highly complex systems, not a train schedule.

We're just coming out of period that has seen the temporary conjunction of the deepest and longest solar sunspot minimum(which means less solar radiance) and one of the strongest La Ninas which tends to cool the planet as a large mass of cooler deep water is exposed at the surface in the Eastern Pacific. The next few years are probably going to the hottest in recorded history, I won't be surprised at all to see summer time ice cover in the Arctic gone by 2015.

I also predict that when the Arctic ice pack does melt the contrarians will be stating it's just local warming or volcanos.
 
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Redmonton_Rebel

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L Gilbert said:
Well, I wouldn't predict a complete loss of ice but there's certainly a huge amount disappearing from places like this;

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/greenland-ice-sheet-reflectivity-near-record-low-research-shows/

<a href="http://news.discovery.com/earth/greenland-ice-map-120710.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://news.discovery.com/earth/greenland-ice-map-120710.html
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The Arctic ice pack and the Greenland Ice Sheet are two different issues, the one is land based and thousands of feet thick in places and will withstand warming much longer. The Arctic sea ice pack is metres thick and has thinned by about half in recent decades and is vulnerable to rapid melting if the right conditions occure. Snow covered ice reflects about 90% of incoming solar radiation(electromagnetic not ionized radiation for trolls like petros) but ocean water absorbs about 90% of sunlight. As new areas of sea open up due to melting ice the process accelerates until there is no ice left at the peak of summer warming ON THE ARCTIC OCEAN.

It's going to probably happen sooner rather than later and will significantly alter the climate of the Arctic and most likely accelerate melting of the Greenland ice sheet which will receive even more of its percipitation as rain instead of snow.
 
L Gilbert

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Redmonton_Rebel said:
The Arctic ice pack and the Greenland Ice Sheet are two different issues,
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Ya think?
the one is land based and thousands of feet thick in places and will withstand warming much longer. The Arctic sea ice pack is metres thick and has thinned by about half in recent decades and is vulnerable to rapid melting if the right conditions occure. Snow covered ice reflects about 90% of incoming solar radiation(electromagnetic not ionized radiation for trolls like petros) but ocean water absorbs about 90% of sunlight.
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Ya think I'm not aware of that? Get a grip.
As new areas of sea open up due to melting ice the process accelerates until there is no ice left at the peak of summer warming ON THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
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It's a possibility, but I still won't predict it as a certainty. You have some crystal ball or something?

It's going to probably happen sooner rather than later and will significantly alter the climate of the Arctic and most likely accelerate melting of the Greenland ice sheet which will receive even more of its percipitation as rain instead of snow.
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Oh, I expect the entire arctic circle to the north pole to be green some day in the future. So?

Tonington said:
The sea ice doesn't have to entirely melt for the North Pole to be ice free...
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Quite true. The north pole is in the middle of the ocean. There could still be ice in surrounding areas.
 
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Redmonton_Rebel

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L Gilbert said:
Ya think? Ya think I'm not aware of that? Get a grip. It's a possibility, but I still won't predict it as a certainty. You have some crystal ball or something?

Oh, I expect the entire arctic circle to the north pole to be green some day in the future. So?

Quite true. The north pole is in the middle of the ocean. There could still be ice in surrounding areas.
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The topic is Arctic sea ice not the Greenland Ice Sheet.

If you`re aware of the difference then why are you posting articles about the Greenland Ice Sheet on this thread.
 
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Redmonton_Rebel

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L Gilbert said:
It was an example of diminishing ice. You really had a problem understanding my post? wow
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And it has little or nothing to do with the topic, there`s more than enough confusion around climate change without adding to it.

Bringing the Greenland Ice Sheet into a discussion about the disappearance of Arctic sea ice cover in the summer could easily bring some people to conclude there`s no real issue when once again it doesn`t melt if they`re confusing it with Greenland ice. It`s how climate change denial operates, bait and switch, bait and switch.
 
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