Yep, it's the old Monty Hall problem from Let's Make a Deal. Did you miss that thread? Haven't seen you around much lately and it's dropped off the front page. Guess it depends what people read, what they believe, and what they can convince themselves of what they want to believe. That last one is particularly seductive to a certain kind of mind (which seems to be most minds, frankly), and in my not very humble opinion accounts for the continuing existence of exactly 100% of all the New Age Wankologies, and the Ancient Wankologies like astrology, that infest this society. Reiki, iridology, graphology, astrology, dowsing, telepathy, chiropractic, homeopathy, talking to the dead, Mayan prophecies for 2012, UFOs, the Real! Meaning! Of! The! Book! Of! Revelation!!!, 9/11 conspiracies, chemtrails, H1N1, ... Ach, the list is endless and covered with BS too thin to shovel.