This thread was prompted by a discussion I had with a poster (probably a Republican, but I am not sure). It is well known by now that many Republicans want Obama to fail. There is the famous yell by the de facto Republican leader, Rush Limbaugh, ‘I hope he fails’.
I think Republicans have a simplistic idea what is meant by of Obama failing. It goes something like this. As a result of Obama’s policies, we slide into a depression, unemployment 25%, inflation 20%.
As a result of that, Republicans win control of Senate and House in 2010, win the Presidency in 2012. Then unemployment falls to 4%, inflation falls to 2% and every body lives happily ever after.
But let us really look at what happens if Obama fails. Here I am assuming the rosiest scenario for Republicans. So let us say that Obama’s policies are a total failure and by October 2012 unemployment has shot up to 15%, inflation 10%. Of course Republicans win control of Senate and House.
What will be the first action of Republicans? What did they do the last time they controlled the Congress and there was a Democratic President, Clinton? They started impeachment proceedings, of course. And that is what they will do this time as well.
So in 2011 nothing will be done about economy, USA will remain glued to TV sets and internet to follow the impeachment proceedings. There are really no grounds for impeachment, but there are plenty that can be trumped up by Republicans. Some of them are:
Obama is not a US born American citizen and hence, not eligible to be the President.
Treason. He purposely violated the constitution by running for President.
Economic mismanagement. These are not grounds for impeachment, but that won’t stop the Republicans.
Anyway, so most of 2011 will be spent in impeachment. Obama will be impeached in the House on a partisan vote, but Republicans will fail to convict him in the senate (no way they are going to end up with 67 Senators after 2010 elections, no matter how bad the economy).
So the start of 2012 will see Obama and Republican Congress both standing, both bloodied. There will be plenty of bad blood between them and of course, nothing will get done in 2012.
Now let us say the Republican dream comes true, by October 2012, inflation is 20%, unemployment 25%. There is plenty of misery in the nation, people are literally begging for food in the streets. Of course Obama loses the election, Republicans win the Presidency.
Now we are into 2013 and economy is an absolute mess. Then let us say that by end of 2013, Republicans implement their agenda (more tax cuts mostly benefiting the rich, deregulation on a massive scale, more budget deficits, scrapping of all the environmental laws to encourage businesses etc.). Even if they control Presidency and Congress, it takes time to pass a bunch of legislation.
By now the economy has been going down hill for 5 years (it started in 2008 . Even if Republican cure works like a miracle, we are looking at at least three years before we see a significant improvement. That takes us to end of 2016, or beginning of 2017.
So if Obama fails, the earliest economy will recover is 2017, or eight years from now. This assuming everything goes smoothly for Republicans, if it isn't smooth going, it may take ten or more years.
If Obama succeeds, economy will start recovering next year. Democrats will lose a few seats in 2010, but not enough to change the balance of power. Then Obama can get on to the next phase, reducing the deficits.
So one year as opposed to eight or more years. It is only the most partisan of Republicans, somebody who doesn’t care how much misery, how much poverty Americans suffer, how much misery is caused, it is only someone like that who would wish Obama to fail.
Any reasonable person (of whatever persuasion) would hope that Obama would succeed and we will have a recovery next years, and not Obama fails and the economic meltdown continues for eight or more years.
