Carney avoids election in budget vote — watch for one this spring
Plenty of Liberals are chomping at the bit to rush to an early election and secure a majority.
Author of the article:Brian Lilley
Published Nov 19, 2025 • Last updated 12 hours ago • 3 minute read
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks off after a press conference in Ottawa on May 2, 2025.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks off after a press conference in Ottawa on May 2, 2025.
Mark Carney’s Liberals survived the budget vote this week and avoided an election, but don’t be surprised if we see an election as early as this spring. If it happens, it won’t be because the opposition parties voted the Liberals down, it will be because they think they can win a majority.
On Monday, the budget passed by a margin of 170 MPs in favour and 168 against. That only happened because four MPs – two Conservative and two NDP – abstained.
What happened during Monday’s budget vote
For the NDP, it was Gord Johns and Lori Idlout. Johns was in the House and sat in his seat, refusing to stand and vote yea or nay for the budget, while Idlout was in Ottawa but voted remotely to abstain –meaning she was recorded as being present but not voting.
On the Conservative side, Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux — the man who was subject to floor crossing rumours and who announced he would resign from politics at a future date — simply didn’t vote in person or online. According to Conservative Party official, Jeneroux was in British Columbia with his family where his wife, a surgeon, has recently taken up a new role.
Shannon Stubbs, on the other hand, was off on pre-approved medical leave recovering from major surgery on her jaw and chin. She couldn’t be in person for the vote and, according to party sources, couldn’t use the online voting app because it wouldn’t recognize her bandaged face in a post-surgery apparatus.
Regardless, the budget passed, even after two MPs hiding in the wings, Andrew Sheer and Scott Reid, showed up to vote no, claiming technical difficulties on the app. They only appeared in the House to do so after it was clear the budget would pass.
That none of the opposition parties wanted an election right now isn’t shocking: The Conservatives have been telling everyone that now is not the time. They aren’t foolish and can read the public mood which was dead set against a Christmas election campaign.
Fun fact: Had the government lost the vote and an election was called on Tuesday, the earliest voting day would have been December 25th, meaning very much a Christmas election – not that the vote would ever have happened on that date.
A spring election is in the air
A spring election is very much in the air at this point, whether it remains in the air when the snow melts and the grass turns green once again remains to be seen.
“It depends,” said one Liberal discussing the idea of the spring election.
If the Liberals are polling well, if Carney can get a deal with Trump or campaign against him and the economy hasn’t soured too much, then Carney and his team could go early. If the polls remain tight, as they are now in party support, and if Carney doesn’t have a clear narrative of him being the economic saviour the country needs, then he and his team will likely take a pass.
Carney’s plan to shed Trudeau-era ministers
“(The) PM wants to renew his cabinet and shed as many Trudeau-era ministers as he can,” another Liberal said, speaking on background.
We’ve already seen Carney try to send off Trudeau leftovers like Bill Blair to be High Commissioner in London and Jonathan Wilkinson as ambassador in Brussels. That’s just the start, and Carney would like to shed more Trudeau people like Steven Guilbeault if he can before the next election.
“You think they are more organized than they are,” said another Liberal, adding it takes time to replace Trudeau’s dinosaurs.
Be it the spring or the fall, an election in 2026 is highly likely. Mark Carney wants his majority and if he can’t get it from enticing MPs from other parties to cross the floor, he’ll do it by calling an early election.
Watch for him or his team to start saying that Parliament is dysfunctional or claiming they need a new mandate to deal with Donald Trump. Whatever the excuse, it’s just a fig leaf for arriving at the ultimate goal, a majority government.
Carney sidesteps an election in the federal budget vote, but signs point to a possible spring campaign. Here’s what to watch for next.
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