Wow, just wow. What a mess. Pollsters all wrong again. UK swirling around the bowl. Pound dumped 2%.
The Brussels gang must be rubbing their hands will glee.
Not sure if May will survive the day.
In 2015 we were predicting a Hung Parliament (which we got in 2010 for the first time since 1974) and talking about what sort of Coalition Government we were going to set up and instead got a Tory victory.
In 2017 we were predicting a Tory victory and instead got a Hung Parliament and are talking about what sort of Coalition Government we are going to set up.
As the leader of the party which got most votes and most seats, the now lame-duck Theresa May is first to be given the opportunity to try and form a government. Her party won 318 seats, which is eight short of the 326 needed for victory, so May is now in talks with Northern Ireland's right-wing (anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, anti-EU) Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), led by former Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster, to try and form a Coalition Government with them or, if not a formal Coalition, what is known as a "confidence and supply" arrangement with them. The DUP won 10 seats in this election, so that means a Tory deal with them would set up a government with 328 seats, just giving May a majority.
DUP Leader Arlene Foster Giving A Statement On Forming Government With Tories
What I like about UK elections is just how many parties there are. It may seem like the country is more divided, and I guess it is, but it also demonstrates more democratic participation.
Here are the final results
Conservatives - 318
Labour - 261
Scottish National - 35
Liberal Democrat -12
Democratic Unionist - 10
Sinn Fein - 7
Plaid Cymru - 4
Green - 1
The previous parliament had 3 more parties. The Conservatives lost 12 seats, Labour gained 29 and SNP lost 21.
What does it all mean? It's obvious that despite still being the biggest party the Conservatives gambled and lost. Jeremy Corbyn was laughed at for having 30 year old social policies. Before the election his poll numbers were historically low for a Labour leader, which is part of the reason why Theresa May called an election. How did they turn it around? Can we chalk it up to Labour policies actually resonating with voters? Maybe voters were annoyed with an obviously cynical and politically motivated snap election? I've heard it suggested that the Conservative campaign just wasn't organized or maybe complacency and polling kept Conservative voters at home and brought out younger voters.
Labour finished on 262 seats. There was one last seat which took a while to declare because it was very tight between the Tories and Labour, so it was recounted once or twice to make sure. It went to Labour.
Jeremy Corbyn was unpopular amongst much of the Labour Party, thinking that his relationship with the IRA and 1970s-style socialist, Marxist, Far-Left beliefs would lead his party to electoral oblivion. Instead he performed much better during the election campaign than many people thought he would. He went out and met the voters, always has a smile on his face and seemed positive. He also engaged with younger people, amongst whom he's popular with, and he got them to come out and vote, which led to a far higher turnout this time around. He took part in the TV leaders' debates. By contrast, May seemed to be always dour, emotionless and wooden. She even refused to take part in some TV debates. Another mistake of hers was introducing a deeply unpopular policy on social care in the Conservative manifesto which, which she launched in Halifax. That policy proved unpopular amongst voters. That's why we now have the strange situation where May won the election (albeit with no majority) but feels as though she lost it, and Corbyn lost the election but now feels as though he won it.
As for May, I think she now has just months left in her job. She'll stay as PM for now and when the Brexit negotiations get underway on 19th June, but it'll not be long until she's replaced as Tory leader and PM. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, the leader of the victorious Leave campaign, is the bookies' favourite. The Home Secretary Amber Rudd is another one tipped to be the new PM, as is Anna Soubry. Another one who might run to be the new PM is Adam Afriyie, the MP for Windsor, who has been tipped to be "Britain's Obama." The Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond and the Brexit Secretary David Davis are also hotly tipped.
There is even a chance that we might have yet another General Election, this time in the autumn, to try and get rid of the Hung Parliament. That could very well sweep Corbyn into No10 or, if they have a new leader by then, see the Tories re-establish a majority.
Next PM?
Boris Johnson, the bookies' favourite
Anna Soubry
Amber Rudd
Philip Hammond
David Davis
Adam Afriyie
That is a minority position. I hope you are a minority.
The pundits will have a field day with her. And deservedly so.
Gerry Adams
"I don't know how Theresa May can survive this. It is putting a big focus on Brexit because she went out to get a vote for a hard Brexit.
"The people here in this state voted to remain. It's been ignored by the DUP, the UUP and Theresa May."
[youtube]Zdjl521oUdY[/youtube]
People should explains to that terrorist that the people of the United Kingdom voted Leave.
Therefore the whole of the United Kingdom - Northern Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales - is leaving the European Union. That's democracy.
The only good thing about this is the minority partner is going to be the Democratic Unionists who are true social conservatives, anti EU, and nationalists. Hopefully they'll keep May honest. But i suspect a Brexit 'Light' will start to dominate the agenda with some lip service to sovereignty and capitulation to Brussels on trade and immigration.
Labour's Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer said that he wants to end free movement of people. So even if there's another election soon and Labour wins it - and now there's a good chance they might - it seems we shouldn't have to worry about the UK still having to accept free movement of people.
Also, Corbyn is a Eurosceptic and there are rumours he voted Leave in the referendum, unlike May who was a member of the Remain camp. Corbyn has been a fierce critic of the EU for decades.
Another thing about this election result is the collapse of the Scottish nationalists - the people who held a Scottish independence referendum in 2015 and lost. In the 2015 election they won a whopping 56 seats - out of the 59 Scottish seats in the Commons - and vowed to hold another independence referendum soon. But in this election they have ended up with just 35 seats, a loss of 21, with a lot of those seats going to the Tories in a land which, for the last 60 years, has been relatively Tory-free (that was the only good thing for the Tories in this election). In fact, the traditionally anti-Tory Scotland now has more Tories than it has had since the 1955 election. So that huge collapse for the nationalists in Scotland now must mean that Scottish independence is off the cards. The Scots have shown that they don't want it.
The final results in detail
Results of the 2017 General Election - BBC News
The new make-up of the Commons:
Conservatives: 318 seats (-13 seats) (13,667,213 votes)
Labour: 262 (+30) (12,874,985)
Scottish National Party (SNP): 35 (-21) (977,569)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (+4) (2,371,772)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): 10 (+2) (292,316)
Sinn Fein: 7 (+3) (238,915)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1) (164,466)
Green Party: 1 (0) (525,371)
Turnout: 68.7%
Electorate: 46,843,896
