Kevin Libin: It doesn’t count as a pipeline approval unless Trudeau’s prepared to arrest Liz May
In the hours before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was about to make his big pipeline announcement, the news was already looking good. Green Party leader Elizabeth May had said she was ready to face prison in protest if Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion was approved.
“I’m more than prepared to be there to block construction and be arrested and go to jail,” May said, giving some Canadians yet one more reason to look forward to a go-ahead.
Perhaps she’ll get her wish, after Trudeau said late Tuesday he would approve the Trans Mountain expansion, as well as the replacement of Enbridge’s Line 3. Actually, both had already been recommended for approval by the National Energy Board, so it would be more descriptive to call the Liberals’ announcement a decision not to refuse Trans Mountain or Line 3. They did, however, refuse Northern Gateway, adding a north-coast oil tanker ban, too.
Gateway had also been approved by the NEB, but needed a second federal approval after a court ruled the first improperly done. It’s a safe bet no one will stage illegal actions protesting the jobs and economic benefits lost to that decision, including to the 31 aboriginal communities that supported the proposal. It’s probably a safe bet that May won’t go to jail protesting Kinder Morgan, either.
At least when Solomon suggesting splitting a baby, it was to uncover the truth. Trudeau’s great compromise will earn him credit from political pragmatists but it gets us no closer to a clearer justification for new pipelines. Trudeau might have thought he was giving a little to each camp on Tuesday, by approving two project upgrades but refusing a whole new project proposal.
But by tossing aside Northern Gateway based not on the NEB’s recommendation but rather warm-and-fuzzy feelings about how the Great Bear Rainforest is “no place for a pipeline” (because: spirit bears) and its coastline “no place for oil tanker traffic” and it would be wrong to mar such a “unique and beautiful ecosystem” (a “jewel”!) Trudeau revealed that some causes still count for more than others.
The activist lawyers and campaign directors who are always steps ahead in strategizing ways to effectively snarl Canada’s fossil fuel development will quickly recognize the challenge to create new anti-development excuses that a yoga-doing, Haida-tattooed, new-age-spiritual prime minister can’t say no to.
Still, it counts for something that Tuesday showed we have yet to see the total denormalization of pipeline projects. Trudeau’s political capital isn’t quite at the level it was before he was found greasing dodgy gifts from Chinese communists and praising Cuban ones. But he arguably has more than most politicians these days, so his willingness to accept even a little more pipeline will surely remind many Canadians that it’s still perfectly reasonable to not jump off the zero-carbon, zero-prosperity deep end with Elizabeth May and her ilk.
But then, Elizabeth May isn’t quite as cute as a spirit bear. And the climate isn’t as pretty as a rainforest. Gregor Robertson is easy on the eyes, but no one’s heart will break because the mayor hates seeing more tankers in his already busy Vancouver Harbour.
Trudeau spent much of his remaining political capital Tuesday helping the floundering Rachel Notley government, insisting these pipeline decisions hinged on the social licence derived from her carbon plan, and his.
But already it looks like a heavily restricted licence, not valid for disturbing any animals, territory or scenery that, when photographed for a protest placard, look too pretty or pristine to mess with. It might for now be good for winning federal support for pipeline routes that are already dug — until the protests call for water cannons and handcuffing Liz May and maybe some First Nations people. How hard will the Trudeau government defend its social licence then?
Kevin Libin: It doesn’t count as a pipeline approval unless Trudeau’s prepared to arrest Liz May | Financial Post