Toronto Star: Canada’s economy is already starting to shrink — and that could mean a recession is looming, economists say

The_Foxer

Council Member
Aug 9, 2022
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Link: https://archive.ph/6Tuku

The problem we're going to run into is that interest rates are the only real tool the bank has to control inflation. And the idea there is to force people to spend less and for businesses to spend less. That increases supply and reduces prices in theory. Basically you're taking money out of the economy to slow it down.

BUT - the trudeau gov't is still spending excessively. Which means more money gets dumped into the economy. That's in direct opposition to the BOC's actions. And that reduces their effect on inflation reduction.

So the bank is going to have to keep up with significant rate increases just to tip the scales back. And that guaranteed is going to move us into a recession. I would tend to agree we won't see it till second quarter next year but i think it's going to be deeper and longer than people think.
 
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petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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Its going to take 800,000 immigrants a year now. 2 Halifax sized cities that arent being built. We arent building 1 Halifax a year to house the 400,000 already coming every year. This too is a massive inflation driver.

Trudeau is using human capital as means to borrow.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
18,538
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Regina, Saskatchewan
Link: https://archive.ph/6Tuku

The problem we're going to run into is that interest rates are the only real tool the bank has to control inflation. And the idea there is to force people to spend less and for businesses to spend less. That increases supply and reduces prices in theory. Basically you're taking money out of the economy to slow it down.

BUT - the trudeau gov't is still spending excessively. Which means more money gets dumped into the economy. That's in direct opposition to the BOC's actions. And that reduces their effect on inflation reduction.

So the bank is going to have to keep up with significant rate increases just to tip the scales back. And that guaranteed is going to move us into a recession. I would tend to agree we won't see it till second quarter next year but i think it's going to be deeper and longer than people think.
Good times.
 

Dixie Cup

House Member
Sep 16, 2006
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Edmonton
Link: https://archive.ph/6Tuku

The problem we're going to run into is that interest rates are the only real tool the bank has to control inflation. And the idea there is to force people to spend less and for businesses to spend less. That increases supply and reduces prices in theory. Basically you're taking money out of the economy to slow it down.

BUT - the trudeau gov't is still spending excessively. Which means more money gets dumped into the economy. That's in direct opposition to the BOC's actions. And that reduces their effect on inflation reduction.

So the bank is going to have to keep up with significant rate increases just to tip the scales back. And that guaranteed is going to move us into a recession. I would tend to agree we won't see it till second quarter next year but i think it's going to be deeper and longer than people think.
Not only that, Trudeau said that he's not concerned about monetary issues so he'll keep on keeping on. No skin off his back as everything (currently) is paid for him via taxpayers. So he's ok with what is taking place.
 

The_Foxer

Council Member
Aug 9, 2022
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Not only that, Trudeau said that he's not concerned about monetary issues so he'll keep on keeping on. No skin off his back as everything (currently) is paid for him via taxpayers. So he's ok with what is taking place.
Quite correct. Historically, addressing these issues was never supposed to be ONLY a BOC problem, even tho they're tasked with managing inflation. The idea only works if you have cooperation and the bank handles monetary policy and the feds handle fiscal policy and the two are in synch and harmonized.

That's what we saw under harper - he worked with Carney closely and flahtery did as well and the fiscal and money policies combined to be VERY effective, resulting in a much shorter, shallower recession and faster recovery.

Trudeau don't give a crap. And his policies are working at odds with the bank. And sadly for the kids today the results will show
 

petros

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Trudeau doesnt want you put two and two together to realize oil and gas production and exports are at record levels making record money. If the green bean Lib voters knew this theyd be blowing gaskets instead if each other.

If SK is coughing up $500 per resident ($0.65B) as a windfall bonus on O&G, uranium and potash what are the Feds doing with their windfall money from O&G, uranium and potash?

Trudeau's spending is keeping oil from impacting the exchange rate in a positive way. It's a bizarre way of depreciating the dollar.

Inflation shouldn't be an issue at all, we should be worrying about exports dropping because of a high dollar.
 
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spaminator

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Oct 26, 2009
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Equifax says total consumer debt rises to $2.32 trillion in second quarter
Author of the article:Canadian Press
Canadian Press
Publishing date:Sep 06, 2022 • 1 day ago • 1 minute read • 5 Comments

Equifax Canada says total consumer debt rose to $2.32 trillion in the second quarter, up 8.2 per cent compared with the same quarter last year.


The report by the credit rating agency says increases in new lending and higher spending linked to inflation helped boost non-mortgage debt to $591.4 billion, up 5.2 per cent from a year ago.


It says average non-mortgage debt per consumer was $21,128, up 2.4 per cent compared with a year earlier.

Rebecca Oakes, vice-president of advanced analytics at Equifax Canada, says financial stress is becoming a very real thing for many more Canadians.


Oakes says the impact on consumer credit is not just visible in day-to-day credit card spending, but also in other non-mortgage debt like auto loans and lines of credit, where balances are on the rise.

Equifax says credit card balances rose to the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2019.
 

The_Foxer

Council Member
Aug 9, 2022
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It was bound to happen i think - people coming out of Covid they want to spend money and do things that they couldn't do for the last 2 years, they have to buy new clothes because they are going back to the office and they are going out in public again, excetera excetera. At the same time inflation is going up and available cash is going down.

People are probably coming pretty close to the end of their credit limits and the monthly payments will very quickly cause them to rein in their spending. Then we are going to face recessionary pressure and the economy will slow down.

This is why I trying to rely on the banks adjusting interest rates is a really bad way to deal with inflation. It almost always leads to recession unless the government is also taking measures so that the interest rates don't need to be raised as much.
 

Taxslave2

Electoral Member
Aug 13, 2022
644
315
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Trudeau doesnt want you put two and two together to realize oil and gas production and exports are at record levels making record money. If the green bean Lib voters knew this theyd be blowing gaskets instead if each other.

If SK is coughing up $500 per resident ($0.65B) as a windfall bonus on O&G, uranium and potash what are the Feds doing with their windfall money from O&G, uranium and potash?

Trudeau's spending is keeping oil from impacting the exchange rate in a positive way. It's a bizarre way of depreciating the dollar.

Inflation shouldn't be an issue at all, we should be worrying about exports dropping because of a high dollar.
I’m not sure if I am angry or mad, or both since BC COULD be in this position. If we didn’t have a socialist go that borrows money to subsidize electric cars.
 
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pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
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B.C.
I’m not sure if I am angry or mad, or both since BC COULD be in this position. If we didn’t have a socialist go that borrows money to subsidize electric cars.
We could be in much worse shape . All the public sector are in negotiations when they are all settled the next government must figure out how to pay .
 

The_Foxer

Council Member
Aug 9, 2022
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We could be in much worse shape . All the public sector are in negotiations when they are all settled the next government must figure out how to pay .
Well it doesn't look like the BCGEU did as well as they'd like, so that will probably set the tone for the rest of them.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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You’re lucky to have such a wonderful and farsighted federal government that has spent years “reinforcing Canada’s social safety net,” according to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who delivered the fall economic statement on Thursday. And if you like the idea of throwing large gobs of money at every problem this country faces, you’re in luck: the Liberals are here to guide us through the economic turmoil that lies ahead.
Freeland said the government would not make the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation harder by boosting spending. Yet the update reveals the government will spend nearly half of its net $30-billion windfall, showing all the restraint of a “Supermarket Sweep” contestant loading up his trolley.

OTTAWA — The Liberal government’s latest fall economic statement (FES) includes $7.3 billion-worth of increased spending on programs that already existed or were contained in the 2022 budget in the spring.

In her fall economic statement speech, with a focus on Canadian energy’s role in global security and national prosperity, Ms. Freeland mentioned “green transition” three times, talked about “hydrogen” twice and referenced “critical minerals” five times. She never said “oil” or “natural gas.” Not even once.
 
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Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Freeland said Canada is in better economic shape than many countries, including members of the G-7 (Canada, U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Japan).

But given that we don’t live in those countries, Freeland acknowledged, “that fact brings little comfort to Canadians paying higher prices at the checkout counter, or spending more to fill their tanks with gas.”

Of course, the Trudeau government is deliberately pursuing policies that increase the price of gasoline, natural gas and home heating oil, in order to address climate change.

While the mini-budget contained some measures to help students and lower income Canadians cope with tough economic times, the reality is that there’s not much more the government can do.

An indication of that was Freeland’s estimations for coming budget deficits in Canada, which the Liberals have never been good at predicting.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s predicted in the 2015 election campaign a Liberal government would post three years of modest deficits — $9.9 billion in 2016, $9.5 billion in 2017, $5.7 billion in 2018 and a $1 billion surplus in 2019.

Trudeau’s actual record was a $17.8 billion deficit in 2016, a $19 billion deficit in 2017, a $14 billion deficit in 2018 and a $39.4 billion deficit in 2019 — before the pandemic hit.

In its wake, Freeland’s mini-budget predicts Canada’s deficit this year will be $36.4 billion, $30.6 billion in 2023, $25.4 billion in 2024, $14.5 billion in 2025, (Then Canada has a Federal Election and there’s a change of Gov’t so…) $3.4 billion in 2026 and a $4.5 billion surplus in 2027.

However, perhaps in light of the Trudeau government’s erroneous deficit predictions of the past, she also outlined a “downside scenario” in which the federal deficit this year would be $49.1 billion, $52.4 billion in 2023, $42.3 billion in 2024, $30.4 billion in 2025, (then Canada has a Federal Election & the NDP/Liberals somehow hold Gov’t) $18.6 billion in 2026 and $8.3 billion in 2027.

Based on the Liberals’ fiscal record to date, keep that “downside scenario” in mind.
 
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Taxslave2

Electoral Member
Aug 13, 2022
644
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You’re lucky to have such a wonderful and farsighted federal government that has spent years “reinforcing Canada’s social safety net,” according to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who delivered the fall economic statement on Thursday. And if you like the idea of throwing large gobs of money at every problem this country faces, you’re in luck: the Liberals are here to guide us through the economic turmoil that lies ahead.
Freeland said the government would not make the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation harder by boosting spending. Yet the update reveals the government will spend nearly half of its net $30-billion windfall, showing all the restraint of a “Supermarket Sweep” contestant loading up his trolley.

OTTAWA — The Liberal government’s latest fall economic statement (FES) includes $7.3 billion-worth of increased spending on programs that already existed or were contained in the 2022 budget in the spring.

In her fall economic statement speech, with a focus on Canadian energy’s role in global security and national prosperity, Ms. Freeland mentioned “green transition” three times, talked about “hydrogen” twice and referenced “critical minerals” five times. She never said “oil” or “natural gas.” Not even once.
The Liberal government has caused almost all our serious problems all by themselves. Whatever makes that witch think she can cure any of them?
 

Dixie Cup

House Member
Sep 16, 2006
4,677
2,716
113
Edmonton
Freeland said Canada is in better economic shape than many countries, including members of the G-7 (Canada, U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Japan).

But given that we don’t live in those countries, Freeland acknowledged, “that fact brings little comfort to Canadians paying higher prices at the checkout counter, or spending more to fill their tanks with gas.”

Of course, the Trudeau government is deliberately pursuing policies that increase the price of gasoline, natural gas and home heating oil, in order to address climate change.

While the mini-budget contained some measures to help students and lower income Canadians cope with tough economic times, the reality is that there’s not much more the government can do.

An indication of that was Freeland’s estimations for coming budget deficits in Canada, which the Liberals have never been good at predicting.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s predicted in the 2015 election campaign a Liberal government would post three years of modest deficits — $9.9 billion in 2016, $9.5 billion in 2017, $5.7 billion in 2018 and a $1 billion surplus in 2019.

Trudeau’s actual record was a $17.8 billion deficit in 2016, a $19 billion deficit in 2017, a $14 billion deficit in 2018 and a $39.4 billion deficit in 2019 — before the pandemic hit.

In its wake, Freeland’s mini-budget predicts Canada’s deficit this year will be $36.4 billion, $30.6 billion in 2023, $25.4 billion in 2024, $14.5 billion in 2025, (Then Canada has a Federal Election and there’s a change of Gov’t so…) $3.4 billion in 2026 and a $4.5 billion surplus in 2027.

However, perhaps in light of the Trudeau government’s erroneous deficit predictions of the past, she also outlined a “downside scenario” in which the federal deficit this year would be $49.1 billion, $52.4 billion in 2023, $42.3 billion in 2024, $30.4 billion in 2025, (then Canada has a Federal Election & the NDP/Liberals somehow hold Gov’t) $18.6 billion in 2026 and $8.3 billion in 2027.

Based on the Liberals’ fiscal record to date, keep that “downside scenario” in mind.
Supporting our Oil & Gas would help immensely not only for Canada but for Europe as well but Trudeau could care a less. No skin off of his back since we pay the freight for him.
 
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petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Freeland said Canada is in better economic shape than many countries, including members of the G-7 (Canada, U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Japan).

But given that we don’t live in those countries, Freeland acknowledged, “that fact brings little comfort to Canadians paying higher prices at the checkout counter, or spending more to fill their tanks with gas.”

Of course, the Trudeau government is deliberately pursuing policies that increase the price of gasoline, natural gas and home heating oil, in order to address climate change.

While the mini-budget contained some measures to help students and lower income Canadians cope with tough economic times, the reality is that there’s not much more the government can do.

An indication of that was Freeland’s estimations for coming budget deficits in Canada, which the Liberals have never been good at predicting.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s predicted in the 2015 election campaign a Liberal government would post three years of modest deficits — $9.9 billion in 2016, $9.5 billion in 2017, $5.7 billion in 2018 and a $1 billion surplus in 2019.

Trudeau’s actual record was a $17.8 billion deficit in 2016, a $19 billion deficit in 2017, a $14 billion deficit in 2018 and a $39.4 billion deficit in 2019 — before the pandemic hit.

In its wake, Freeland’s mini-budget predicts Canada’s deficit this year will be $36.4 billion, $30.6 billion in 2023, $25.4 billion in 2024, $14.5 billion in 2025, (Then Canada has a Federal Election and there’s a change of Gov’t so…) $3.4 billion in 2026 and a $4.5 billion surplus in 2027.

However, perhaps in light of the Trudeau government’s erroneous deficit predictions of the past, she also outlined a “downside scenario” in which the federal deficit this year would be $49.1 billion, $52.4 billion in 2023, $42.3 billion in 2024, $30.4 billion in 2025, (then Canada has a Federal Election & the NDP/Liberals somehow hold Gov’t) $18.6 billion in 2026 and $8.3 billion in 2027.

Based on the Liberals’ fiscal record to date, keep that “downside scenario” in mind.
That's just the operating costs and doesn't include covid borrowing which oddly enough was applied for in late Dec of 2019...think aboot the date.