The Tarriff Hype.

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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Just got a deal done with the EU. Art of the deal.
LONDON, July 27 (Reuters) - In the end, Europe found it lacked the leverage to pull Donald Trump's America into a trade pact on its terms and so has signed up to a deal it can just about stomach - albeit one that is clearly skewed in the U.S.'s favour.
As such, Sunday's agreement on a blanket 15% tariff after a months-long stand-off is a reality check on the aspirations of the 27-country European Union to become an economic power able to stand up to the likes of the United States or China.
Both central banks (The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve) will deliver interest-rate decisions on Wednesday the 30th, only two days before the Aug. 1 deadline that Mr. Trump set to strike some sort of U.S.-Canada trade deal.

U.S. inflation has begun to tick higher, rising to an annual rate of 2.7 per cent in June from 2.4 per cent in May. And economists think more inflation is likely in the pipeline for the second half of the year as U.S. importers run down inventory they built up before the tariffs came into force, and the U.S. labour market remains tight.

Royal Bank of Canada economists Mike Reid and Carrie Freestone said in a note to clients that the Fed may need to remain on hold through the fall, with a risk that it “will need to continue to wait to start a cutting cycle, until such time that the tariff impacts subside, likely not until 2026.”

After cutting its policy rate eight consecutive times in 2024 and early 2025, the Bank of Canada has been on hold since April. There’s little chance that’s going to change this week, with financial markets pricing in less than 10-per-cent odds that the bank will cut on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.
“If you haven’t won the last battle [over inflation], and you don’t know what to expect going forward, you probably just sit on your hands,” said Mr. Holt.

With a hold fully priced-in, the main question is what signal BoC Governor Tiff Macklem will send in his press conference on Wednesday.


think the bank will likely need to resume cutting in the fall, as the negative impact of Mr. Trump’s trade war on the Canadian economy becomes more clear.

So far, the tariffs have been masked by a spike in Canadian exports to the U.S. in the first quarter as companies rushed goods across the border to beat the levies, said Darcy Briggs, senior vice-president and portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton, who oversees Canadian fixed-income strategy.

But that dynamic will likely go into reverse in the second quarter, Mr. Briggs said in an interview, weighing on Canadian GDP. Moreover, trade uncertainty has frozen business investment, and Canada could face additional trade shocks if Mr. Trump proceeds with sectoral tariffs on copper, lumber and pharmaceuticals, among other industries he’s threatened.

“The ultimate magnitude and duration of these tariffs are completely unknown because you could come to an agreement and that could be in place for a month and then, [Mr. Trump could say], ‘You did something we don’t like, so we’re going to reopen that up.’ So it just freezes everything, because a handshake doesn’t mean it’s a final deal,” Mr. Briggs said.
Any agreement that preserves Trump’s illegal tariffs would lock Canada into a subservient role for many years to come. And there’s no assurance that Trump would even live up to his end (given his regular violations of more comprehensive binding deals, like the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement).
The negotiations between Washington and Ottawa have also included non-trade-related national security matters, including the border, defence spending, immigration, fentanyl, indigestion, shits & giggles, the 51st state sovereignty trolling, and Mr. Trump’s proposed Golden-ish Dome missile defence system among other come and go issues day to day as needed to distract from the Epstein issue among other US domestic distractions when needed.
 

pgs

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Nov 29, 2008
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Why shouldn't he? In what way has he failed to make it clear that he does not care about you, the people of North America, or the economy?
Really , that is your take on Trump ? Hatred is a funny emotion isn’t it ? Have a blast from the past and remember , sing along .
Every one is beautiful in their own waaay .


Have a coke on me .
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Really , that is your take on Trump ? Hatred is a funny emotion isn’t it ? Have a blast from the past and remember , sing along .
Every one is beautiful in their own waaay .


Have a coke on me .
I'm feeling 7UP I'm feeling 7UP

Record stockmarket, abundant jobs, average income 116K, housing way cheaper than here.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
29,081
10,997
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
Prime Minister Mark Carney said deals U.S. President Donald Trump has reached with other trade partners aren’t “necessarily” templates for Canada’s negotiations with the United States, given the differences in the trading relationships.

Politicians, companies and investors in Canada have been watching the progress of the EU deal closely as a bellwether for a possible U.S. agreement with Canada. Like Japan – which agreed to a 15-per-cent baseline U.S. tariff last week – the EU is a major U.S. ally and significant trading partner. Sounds familiar.

But he said that Canada is in a different position than other U.S. trading partners as it enters an “intense phase” of negotiations. “There are similarities. There are differences. One is geographic proximity,” Mr. Carney told reporters at a press conference in Prince Edward Island.

He also noted Europe’s need to find alternative energy sources after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which appears to have shaped the deal.
“Europe needs to fully get itself off Russian energy, so they’re going to buy American energy to help them do that,” Mr. Carney told reporters. “America needs Canadian energy.”
The deal with the EU is the sixth/100 trade agreement Mr. Trump has reached in recent months as he has sought to remake the global trading system with the highest tariffs since the 1930s. He has also made deals with Britain, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
(Some details remain unclear as these are not formal trade agreements, but rather handshake deals)

The EU deal – which was negotiated by the European Commission on behalf of member states – met with mixed reviews on Monday. The political response in Europe ranged from lukewarm to downright hostile. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the deal would hurt both the U.S. and Europe and cause “significant” damage to Germany, but added that “more simply wasn’t achievable.”

French Prime Minister François Bayrou said on social media that the EU had resigned “itself to submission,” while Michel Barnier, France’s former prime minister and the EU’s former chief negotiator for Brexit, called it an admission of weakness: “Weakness in negotiating posture, weakness in the desire for reindustrialization, weakness in the ambition to compete in new technologies,” he wrote on X.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, said that the agreement was worse than expected, when looked at purely in terms of trade.

“It basically gives Donald Trump more or less whatever he wants,” Mr. Kirkegaard said in an interview. But seen in a broader context, where the EU is trying to keep the U.S. on board with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance and supportive of Ukraine in its war with Russia, the deal had a “certain” logic, he said.

“This isn’t really a trade deal. It’s kind of a deal that tries to manage or steer, if you like, the broader transatlantic relationship,” Mr. Kirkegaard said. “If you view the deal through those lenses, then it is less of a disappointment, it is less of a lopsided deal. But it does reflect the basic fact that there is a major war in Europe at the moment and the United States remains the military hegemon in the West.”