Instead, importers in the two countries have been sourcing for the same products from alternative locations not targeted by tariffs, the economists said in a report outlining their findings. Vietnam has so far emerged as the largest beneficiary of that diversion in trade flows, gaining an estimated 7.9% of its gross domestic product from those new business, according to Nomura.
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"As tit-for-tat tariff hikes between the US and China increase, so does the cost of importing from each other," the economists wrote in the report dated June 3.
"Some exporters in the US and China may be willing to absorb part of the additional tariff costs in their profit margins, and some multinationals could opt to re-shore production, but the trade literature shows that, over time, the largest response is likely to be trade diversion," they added.
A chart by Nomura showing the beneficiaries of the trade war and their estimated gains. Click to expand.
The U.S. has so far slapped a 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and American President Donald Trump has threatened to apply the same elevated levy on the remaining imports from China worth around $300 billion. In retaliation, Beijing also raised tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American products.
That tariff fight has resulted in the U.S. and China importing fewer goods from each other, especially products subject to higher levies, said Nomura. In addition to Vietnam, the other major beneficiaries from the trade war are Taiwan, Chile, Malaysia and Argentina, the bank said.
Vietnam and Taiwan benefited mostly from additional exports to the U.S., while Chile, Malaysia and Argentina gained by selling more to China, according to Nomura.....More In Link