Those folks in the West who think China's latest agreement heralds a new age in the fight against climate change, aka global warming, are in my opinion subject to a psychological phenomenon called "mirror imaging."
"...Mirror-imaging means that an analyst may perceive and process information through the filter of personal experience. Mirror-imaging imposes personal perspectives and cultural background on incomplete data, undermining objectivity. Because objectivity is a key component of intelligence analysis, mirror-imaging impedes efforts to make accurate judgments about incomplete information.
Mirror-imaging frequently results in gross distortions of intelligence and raw data, forcing the information to fit into a framework for which it may not be suited. This improper juxtaposition has led to massive oversights...
https://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/sais_review/v028/28.1witlin.html
We all occasionally fall into the trap of assuming that peoples from non-Western cultures use the same assumptions and analytic processes that people in the West use. Thus, we must all be aware that mirror imaging is a trap for the unwary.
In the context of analyzing China's possible compliance with the subject environmental agreement we have to consider Chinese ethics, morality, and philosophy. China doesn't have a rule of law tradition in which one must honor binding contractual obligations. That's why Chinese compliance with the subject environmental agreement should not be viewed through the prism of legalisms.
Generally, China is a Confucian country ruled by a Leninist Party. What does Confucianism tell us about honoring obligations made to people who are not part of the clan, old friends, or even Han Ren? Confucianism establishes an elaborate system of obligations flowing up the hierarchy and back down to those at the bottom rungs. The West is composed of barbarians to whom no ethical or moral obligations are owed. Thus, under the most important operative philosophy in China there are no obligations to comply with the subject environmental agreement. If the Han Ren have no ethical or moral obligation to barbarians the Chinese are free to deal with them as ruthlessly as the Chinese want.
That leaves Leninism as a tool for analysis. Leninism is Lenin's contribution to the world's political theory and philosophy. Under Leninism a cost/benefit analysis is employed to determine the proper actions in any given context. What do the Leninists in the Chinese Communist Party think is the most important thing in the world? Maintenance of the political power and control they have achieved over Mainland China.
Chinese compliance with the subject environmental agreement will always be a work in progress in which the utility of compliance will be subjected to an ongoing cost/benefit analysis. The Chinese will comply with the agreement to the extent it assists the Party in maintaining power.
The Chinese Communist Party has no legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese people unless it provides economic prosperity and continues to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. However, the Chinese Communist Party will take actions which make it look virtuous if there is no adverse economic impact. By signing the subject environmental agreement the Chinese Communist Party has already received the benefits, consideration if you will, through a propaganda victory in which the Party appears to be virtuous.
That brings us to the burdens of compliance with the subject environmental agreement. The CCP will comply with the agreement if its ongoing cost/benefit analysis indicates that compliance is beneficial at each moment during the period of compliance specified in the agreement. If, as and when the subject environmental agreement is determined to be no longer beneficial from a cost/benefit standpoint the Chinese Communist Party will cease compliance.
If the Chinese Communist Party ceases compliance the Chinese people will not be informed of the decision to terminate compliance. The Chinese people get their news in the form of happy talk appearing in print, over TV, and in social media. No mention will be made of compliance termination.
What will the West say if China terminates compliance with the subject environmental agreement? The West will complain. And the Chinese will deny they have terminated compliance. Western complaints are of no importance because the West is not united, and is composed of barbarians. No one outside of the West will complain. Thus, the world's hopes for Chinese compliance with the subject environmental agreement rest entirely on the ongoing cost/benefit analysis of the Chinese Communist Party.
