We've heard all the political cliches before. Twice - Canada and Quebec.
This will be exactly like Quebec in 1995. The NO side will narrowly win and then the separatists will do all they can to get another referendum five years or ten years from now. A "Neverendum."
Erm what about the English?
9 September 2014
Nick Cohen
The Spectator
Scottish football fans
One way or another, English nationalism, a beast the Union kept in its cage, will prowl the land after the Scottish vote. If the Scots leave, of course, then nothing will stand in its way. The residual United Kingdom will be a Greater England in all but name. If the ‘no’ campaign scrapes a victory, however, national feeling will if anything be more intense.
Among the many reasons I cannot abide nationalist posturing is that victimhood always accompanies it. No one on these islands has cut a more ridiculous figure than the Scottish politicians and intellectuals, who cast themselves as the leaders of an oppressed people, groaning under the yoke of English colonialism. All nationalisms are built on invented histories –propaganda and lies to use plain language. Scottish nationalism’s greatest propaganda success has been to turn Scots, those eager and rapacious participants in empire, from the colonists into the colonised.
After a ‘no’ vote it will be the turn of the English to play the victim. The Scottish parliament already controls most of domestic policy – education, health, social work, housing, agriculture, planning and criminal justice. Yet Scottish MPs can still decide English education, health, social work, housing, agriculture, planning and criminal justice policy. The Welsh Parliament has lesser but still significant powers as does the Northern Ireland Assembly.
To date, Westminster has avoided answering Tam Dalyell’s West Lothian question
‘For how long will English constituencies and English Honourable members tolerate … at least 119 Honourable Members from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland exercising an important, and probably often decisive, effect on English politics while they themselves have no say in the same matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland?’
But I cannot see how it can be postponed for much longer. Panicking politicians are attempting to head off Scottish independence by offering the Scottish parliament the power to control and set Scottish income tax. Scotland will have Home Rule in all but name. There will be no justification then for allowing Scots to vote on English matters.
The British have a consoling national myth that we do not need written constitutions like those over-rational foreigners, but survive and indeed prosper by muddling through. I suspect that the days of muddling are over. (It has hardly been a great success, after all.) If they are not, if politicians continue to duck the West Lothian question, and Labour in particular has an interest in allowing Welsh and Scottish MPs to retain their current powers, it will be the turn of the English to feel that they are suffering under colonial rule. They will be subject to taxation without representation, and the decrees of a parliament, whose composition no one will be able to excuse or even explain. The longer English grievance festers, the more septic it will become.
I shouldn’t have to add that I find the left-wingers who are cheering on nationalism asinine, almost criminally so. They have put the prospect of giving a bloody nose to the ‘establishment’ before any worthwhile social democratic principle. Do they want a future where an 18-year-old from Dundee has to move abroad to take a job in Birmingham and vice versa? Do they not see that the old multinational British state, for all its flaws and crimes, at least limited blood-and-soil nationalism, because it could include people of all backgrounds and ethnicities?
Apparently not. One way or another, Britishness is going. I hope it is not replaced by brutishness.
Erm what about the English? » Spectator Blogs
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Why I am voting No
318 comments
9 September 2014
Alex Massie
The Spectator
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I lived in Dublin. It was a time when everything seemed possible and not just because I was younger then. The country was stirring too. When I arrived it was still the case that a visa to work in the United States was just about the most valuable possession any young Irishman or woman could own; within a fistful of years that was no longer the case. Ireland was changing. These were the years in which the Celtic Tiger was born. They were happy years of surprising possibility.
Years later I lived in the United States and my perspective changed. Scottish independence seemed, viewed from there, about as useful or meaningful as independence for Texas. Not impossible or even necessarily undesirable but somehow missing the point nonetheless. But that was later. When I lived in Ireland, Dublin’s example seemed, well, exemplary. If the Irish could do it, why couldn’t we? More to the point, why shouldn’t we?
So, like many other Scots who will vote No next week, I don’t think independence a daft notion or some kind of fatuous affectation. I think there is a reasonable case for it (even if this is not the case that, during this long campaign, has often been the case that has actually been made). Could we do it? Why, yes we could. But should we?
Of course the detail matters. It matters even if you accept that the Scottish government’s prospectus for life after independence is only one of many possible futures none of which can be decided until independence is achieved. There are many voters – well, perhaps one in five – who would vote for independence even if it promised an impoverished future. Similarly there are many voters – perhaps one in five – who would reject independence even if they believed it offered a more prosperous future.
Still, if we’re to vote on independence it should be done on the basis of a moderately honest prospectus. No such prospectus has been offered by the Scottish government. A lot of people are voting on the basis of a deeply cynical and meretricious set of promises that simply cannot, not even when assisted by great dollops of wishful thinking, be delivered. It is not possible to spend more, borrow less and tax the same.
That, however, is what the SNP propose. Lower borrowing rates, 3% annual increases in public spending and no changes to the overall level of taxation. It is incredible. It supposes that voters must be glaikit and easily gulled ninnies who can be persuaded to swallow anything, no matter how fanciful it must be. A nonsense wrapped in a distortion inside a whopping great lie.
It’s quite possible that the realities of life in an independent Scotland might push the country’s centre-of-political-gravity to the right.
Quite possible, then, that an independent Scotland would be more likely to produce more of my kind of politics than some of the politics imagined by the keenest advocates for independence. That still strikes me as a thin and selfish reason to vote for independence.
But, sure, many of the details could be worked out and it’s certainly possible that after an initial period of some difficulty Scotland would emerge as a decently prosperous and contented country. It needn’t be a disaster and it probably wouldn’t be. Nevertheless, the growing pains would be acute and I think it best to recognise this. There will be short and even perhaps medium-term pain but the long-term prize will be worth it.
That’s not what’s being sold, however. Far from it.
There are other difficulties. The dishonesty of suggesting – or allowing it to be understood – that there’s no functional difference between sterlingisation and a monetary union with whatever remains of the UK is, in the end, breathtaking. Yes, Scotland can
“use the pound” but
how it’s used is a question of some importance.
I know politicians can never say they don’t know the answer to something but there are times and places when pretending you have all the answers is worse than admitting the obvious truth that you don’t. This is one of those times; one of those places.
But, look, in the end this is still process stuff. Very important process stuff but still only process stuff. I happen to think it provides ample reason to vote No but it’s not why I’m voting No.
I’m voting No because the campaign has surprised me. It’s made me think about my country and, more than that, what it means to be a part of that country. I’ll vote No even though I think Scotland would do fine as an independent country.
Read the rest of this long article:
Why I am voting No » Spectator Blogs
Here's the latest poll
NO: 47.6%
YES: 42.4%
UNDECIDED: 10%
(Survation)