Scientists warn it’s the ‘new norm’ after worst drought in 800 years

damngrumpy

Executive Branch Member
Mar 16, 2005
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There is a problem to be sure., the Dirty Thirties proved there was a problem
then too. Things go in cycles and we are entering one no doubt. But one cannot
say the new norm based on a single drought. Ten of them maybe. The dirty
thirties proved a drought can last more than one year.
The problem is we don't know if this is even the norm yet it is a departure from
what we are used to. I think we could see things turn in a few years and that
will become the new norm. Perhaps scientists are jumping on the bandwagon
because funding for projects is getting harder to find.
 

karrie

OogedyBoogedy
Jan 6, 2007
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My lawn's coming up mushrooms and my tomatoe plants are rotting. This 'drought' sucks. Isn't it amazing how no one can ever be happy?
 

JLM

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Nov 27, 2008
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My lawn's coming up mushrooms and my tomatoe plants are rotting. This 'drought' sucks. Isn't it amazing how no one can ever be happy?

Geez Karrie- Surely you have recipes where you can substitute mushrooms for tomatoes! :smile:
 

Cabbagesandking

Council Member
Apr 24, 2012
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Yes it does get hot in the summers.

From the article...

"The weather this summer has been so extreme that it has rivaled the most destructive and unbearable summers in U.S. history, years that are infamous in weather lore."

Nary a peep about the cold winters... because that's weather. And we are told during the winter season to ignore low winter temperatures because it's weather.

And nothing about the cold winters being warmer than they have been in hundreds of thousands of years.
 

Cabbagesandking

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Apr 24, 2012
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How long does a heat wave/cold snap have to last to make it a trend? :smile:

Perhaps a dozen years would be enough. The fact that the world has been experiencing heat waves for longer than that now leaves room for thought.

But it is not heat waves that are a trend. Heat waves are a consequence of the warming trend that includes episodal severity.
 

Cabbagesandking

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Apr 24, 2012
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Cold must last for decades to be a trend. According to the truthers two dry days global warming makes.

Is that what your society tells you. Finally you admit that you are a conspiracy nut and one of the "truthers."

Is it just in your risible search for alternative causes for climate change or are you part of the larger group of of 9/11 nutcases.
 

taxslave

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 25, 2008
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Is that what your society tells you. Finally you admit that you are a conspiracy nut and one of the "truthers."

Is it just in your risible search for alternative causes for climate change or are you part of the larger group of of 9/11 nutcases.

You really do have a problem with reality don't you?
 

Goober

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Jan 23, 2009
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Perhaps a dozen years would be enough. The fact that the world has been experiencing heat waves for longer than that now leaves room for thought.

But it is not heat waves that are a trend. Heat waves are a consequence of the warming trend that includes episodal severity.

Volcanic eruptions - large - spaced apart by a few years would lower temperature worldwide. A single large eruptions have in fact affected climate for years afterwards. FACT- So why would temp increases be any different- using your base scale of 12 years- Any scientist would laugh his ass off at using that information for studies.
Recall the droughts during the dirty 30's - was that a trend.
 

Cabbagesandking

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Apr 24, 2012
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Volcanic eruptions - large - spaced apart by a few years would lower temperature worldwide. A single large eruptions have in fact affected climate for years afterwards. FACT- So why would temp increases be any different- using your base scale of 12 years- Any scientist would laugh his ass off at using that information for studies.
Recall the droughts during the dirty 30's - was that a trend.

Volcanic eruptions are inconsequential. A large one might have a small effect for a short time. A very large one for a couple of years. Only those very few of biblical proportions that the Planet has experienced on a few occasions have the power to affect climate for long enough to be noted in the geological record.

I don't use any scale except in that answer to a non question. In genral, the thirthy year record is what has been used to say that there is a trend in Global warming. And the temperature increases in this trend are very different. They are not from any natural variable like volcanic outpourings would be. They are entirely from the carbon that we are putting out.

The "dirty thirties" were a short lived anomaly. Their cause were of natural variablity - just larger than are experienced quite regularly and that are removed from calculations that establish this trend.
 

Goober

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Jan 23, 2009
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Volcanic eruptions are inconsequential. A large one might have a small effect for a short time. A very large one for a couple of years. Only those very few of biblical proportions that the Planet has experienced on a few occasions have the power to affect climate for long enough to be noted in the geological record.

I don't use any scale except in that answer to a non question. In genral, the thirthy year record is what has been used to say that there is a trend in Global warming. And the temperature increases in this trend are very different. They are not from any natural variable like volcanic outpourings would be. They are entirely from the carbon that we are putting out.

The "dirty thirties" were a short lived anomaly. Their cause were of natural variablity - just larger than are experienced quite regularly and that are removed from calculations that establish this trend.

Volcanic eruptions

Volcanoes and Climate Change : Feature Articles
Large-scale volcanic activity may last only a few days, but the massive outpouring of gases and ash can influence climate patterns for years. Sulfuric gases convert to sulfate aerosols, sub-micron droplets containing about 75 percent sulfuric acid. Following eruptions, these aerosol particles can linger as long as three to four years in the stratosphere.
Major eruptions alter the Earth's radiative balance because volcanic aerosol clouds absorb terrestrial radiation, and scatter a significant amount of the incoming solar radiation, an effect known as "radiative forcing" that can last from two to three years following a volcanic eruption.

How Volcanoes Work - volcano climate effects

Krakatoa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The accompanying Editors’ Summary of the 2006 Nature article by Gleckler et al. provides the gist:

The 1883 eruption of the volcano Krakatoa in Indonesia has echoed down the centuries in art and in legend. Now an analysis of a suite of 12 climate models shows that Krakatoa also made its presence felt well into the twentieth century in the form of reduced ocean warming and sea-level rise. The changes lasted much longer than was previously suspected and were sufficient to offset much of the ocean warming and sea-level rise caused by more recent human activities.

The eruption of Krakatoa, August 27, 1883

t has been suggested that an eruption of Krakatoa may have been responsible for the global climate changes of 535-536. Additionally, in recent times, it has been argued that it was this eruption which created the islands of Verlaten and Lang (remnants of the original) and the beginnings of Rakata - all indicators of that early Krakatoa's caldera size, and not the long-believed eruption of c. 416, for which conclusive evidence does not exist.
 

Cabbagesandking

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You should take a little time to look over your source, goober. I fail to see what it says differently. Quoting a little of Gleckler is not giving that scientist his due. Gleckler has done many research projests into ocean warming and has concluded that 90% of the added radiative balance goes into the waters. Nowhere does he say that volcanoes alter climate on a long term basis.

Only those very major events, Krakatoa in 1883 does not qualify for that, have done so.
 

Goober

Hall of Fame Member
Jan 23, 2009
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You should take a little time to look over your source, goober. I fail to see what it says differently. Quoting a little of Gleckler is not giving that scientist his due. Gleckler has done many research projests into ocean warming and has concluded that 90% of the added radiative balance goes into the waters. Nowhere does he say that volcanoes alter climate on a long term basis.

Only those very major events, Krakatoa in 1883 does not qualify for that, have done so.

Krakatoa did affect the climate- My question was a sequence of large eruptions- Read up on more than I posted- K with affected the climate.
 

Cabbagesandking

Council Member
Apr 24, 2012
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Krakatoa affected the climate for a short time. That makes it weather, really since it was a brief interruption not a climate change.

Why get all hypothetical about a series of large volcanoes? There has no such time in millions of years. It would take a lot of volcanoes to alter climate.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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I'm sure Volcanoes have some influence, but still a great degree less than something like El Nino or La Nina.
 

beaker

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Jun 11, 2012
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Re: Scientists warn it’s the ‘new norm’ after worst drought in 800 years

I'm sure Volcanoes have some influence, but still a great degree less than something like El Nino or La Nina.

If the la nina is being perpetuated by the flow of extra amounts of cold water melting in the Arctic and Antarctic, and getting caught in the ocean currents that sweep towards the central Pacific along the west coasts of North and South America, which would seem like a logical development, then along with the higher air temperatures, higher holding capacity of that warmer air, drought might be a serious problem where it is happening now until the Arctic is ice free. When the North Pacific stops getting huge quantities of cold ice melt water dumped in every summer, the la nina might break. Who knows what will happen then, but the drought will probably change.
 

Cabbagesandking

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Apr 24, 2012
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Oddly, both La Ninas and El Ninos can lead to drought. Some part of the cause of the droughts down South are La Nina initiated. The "Dirty Thirties" was from a prolonged El Nino.