Recession is over or just a prep for Christmas Shopping time ?

[AnnaG]

I was hoping for a complete meltdown. We need a new economic model based on reality not speculation. We need to get away from endless growth, mindless consumerism and increasing environment degradation. Our economy is why our life support system is failing. You can't eat money, you can't breath goods. If the economy recovers and returns to the same cycle of mindlessness it has been, you can kiss your asses goodbye sooner than later.

Pretty much.
Gotta have bigger. Gotta have more.:roll:

 

[SirJosephPorter]

I was hoping for a complete meltdown.

Complete meltdown never occurs, Cliffy, short of something catastrophic (as happened in Germany and Japan during WW2). Usually when conditions are bad for a while, inevitably there are people who will buy real estate when it is depressed, people who will start businesses when loan is cheap, people who will think of new ways to make money etc.

The system is self correcting to a large extent. When there are excesses, the system collapses, as it did during Bush presidency. After it has been at the bottom for a sufficient time, factors come into play, which lead to a recovery.

Just today we got the news that new home sales in USA surged. There are some initial hopeful signs; next 6 months to a year will tell us how it all plays out.

 

[Francis2004]

I dug up this thread from July as I was looking at stocks and unemployment numbers. Stocks have been going up and are still a healthy
TSX = > 11,000
DOW = > 10,000
NDAQ = > 2,000

While today's unemployment numbers in the US were above 10% and Canada's rose 0.2% again in October.

We are still being told that the future is rosy and that all is on track.. Is it just a game ?

 

[SirJosephPorter]

I dug up this thread from July as I was looking at stocks and unemployment numbers. Stocks have been going up and are still a healthy
TSX = > 11,000
DOW = > 10,000
NDAQ = > 2,000

While today's unemployment numbers in the US were above 10% and Canada's rose 0.2% again in October.

We are still being told that the future is rosy and that all is on track.. Is it just a game ?

We don’t know. If it is anything like a usual downturn, then I would say everything is on track. There are all the signs pointing towards recovery, all except unemployment. And that will take time.

Of course, if this is nothing like previous downturns, things can still turn sour. And there are pundits who say at every downturn that this time it is different, this time economy is not coming back etc. So far they have been proved wrong every time, so I am assuming that this is similar to many previous downturns (though much more severe).

If that is the case, I would expect unemployment to start coming down in next six months.

 

[kryptic]

SJP ... hope your right... me and the other thousands in Alberta looking for work...

 

[kryptic]

The Progressive Economics Forum » Canada’s Lost Year

 

[AnnaG]

43,000 people lost their jobs in October. That doesn't sound like the projected 10,000 people regaining their jobs. I'd say the "experts" who did the projections were a wee bit off.

 

[kryptic]

yeah... experts, that's a whole new thread in itself.

 

[VanIsle]

We don’t know. If it is anything like a usual downturn, then I would say everything is on track. There are all the signs pointing towards recovery, all except unemployment. And that will take time.

Of course, if this is nothing like previous downturns, things can still turn sour. And there are pundits who say at every downturn that this time it is different, this time economy is not coming back etc. So far they have been proved wrong every time, so I am assuming that this is similar to many previous downturns (though much more severe).

If that is the case, I would expect unemployment to start coming down in next six months.

I certainly hope you are right. Where I work things are slow in comparison to where they were even 3 - 4 months ago. It seems that almost weekly, more work hours are cut from the store. I spoke with one other worker last week who had only 4 hours in the whole week. The expectation is that in January it will be far worse. That's a very real expectation as it always gets slower in January and February so if it's slow now, it will really be slow then. I think in those two months un-employment will drop a huge amount.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

The expectation is that in January it will be far worse. That's a very real expectation as it always gets slower in January and February so if it's slow now, it will really be slow then. I think in those two months un-employment will drop a huge amount.

I assume what you mean is that unemployment will rise a huge amount. You are referring to seasonal factors. I think they adjust the unemployment figures for seasonal factors. So normal, seasonal slowdown probably won’t affect the employment statistics.

 

[JLM]

I certainly hope you are right. Where I work things are slow in comparison to where they were even 3 - 4 months ago. It seems that almost weekly, more work hours are cut from the store. I spoke with one other worker last week who had only 4 hours in the whole week. The expectation is that in January it will be far worse. That's a very real expectation as it always gets slower in January and February so if it's slow now, it will really be slow then. I think in those two months un-employment will drop a huge amount.

I would like to dwell more on the positive aspect of this "recession" than the negative. There's a good chance that all the shysters who are putting out Ersatz products and using Xmas to their advantage in ripping people off could be on the verge of going belly up. We could put the final finish on them and kill two birds with one stone. Instead of directing your hard to come by cash supporting these parasites, do some research on charities that put money to good use, and donate some toward a good cause, instead of buying your kids and grandkids another piece of junk they don't need.

 

[VanIsle]

In my yesterday post in this thread, I stated that things have really slowed down where I work. Well today and even yesterday would have made a liar out of me. We were sooo busy today. For the first seven hours I was there I was never without a customer except for my breaks. We were pumping people through like it was Christmas and they are buying (or at least starting to buy) Christmas stuff. Things like wrapping paper and little ornaments are already going through the tills. I'm not even ready to look at it yet. SOM has made the sad mistake of downsizing the cosmetics dept. taking away many of the unique and interesting items we had. People are expressing major disappointment over this move. I myself am disappointed as items offered were unique and reasonable. The store looked so interesting and pretty. Now it's pretty drab. It is far too early for Christmas decorations but we seem to get into a discussion about this every year on the forums and obviously the store keepers don't care because no one will say "stop" - it's just way too early to decorate! The store has some stuff up but I assume it's only the beginning. Hard to say though now that the neat stuff is gone from cosmetics. I don't know why that stuff was handled by cosmetics as it certainly was not in that category but that's where it was anyway. In my opinion, it has slowed business down and sent people searching elsewhere.
Everyone I talked to today said it was busy busy everywhere they went. Oddly enough, people were in a very giving mood today. I had numerous people donate cash for food for the homeless and we are not even asking them for any. We only ever ask for point donations (or cash if people prefer) to Children's Hospital. So many people picked up the little slip of paper for me to scan for $2.00 today and one lady even asked for me to scan it 5 times. Cash is good because then the items that are really needed can be purchased. I was on several tills today and each time I had people donating money for the homeless. It was really nice to see. That seems like a pretty worthwhile charity to me.

 

[Francis2004]

In my yesterday post in this thread, I stated that things have really slowed down where I work. Well today and even yesterday would have made a liar out of me. We were sooo busy today. For the first seven hours I was there I was never without a customer except for my breaks. We were pumping people through like it was Christmas and they are buying (or at least starting to buy) Christmas stuff.

Funny you mention Christmas stuff out as we were at a mall last weekend and my son noticed they were out already.. He asked me when Christmas going to be because he could see the wrapping paper and gifts in the window display at several stores..