Polls

[Vanni Fucci]

No Jo...there's never been an NDP PM...and if the Cons had their way, there never would be...

*psst* They're probably fiscally irresponsible... :wink:

Ah, I guess I was sleeping through my Canadian history courses. I guess it's been nothing but PC's and Libs from day one. I wonder when people will get fed up with our apparently cycladic political situation?

Soon I hope, I couldn't stomache another conservative government, especially of the capitalist 'C' variety, and I hate how the Liberals play the political spectrum like a slide rule to policy...

The fiscal irresponsibility will mostly be heard from those on the right, while the liberals steal social initiatives from the left to get themselves elected...and then renege on their promises...

Why not vote for the people that will actually see those initiatives to fruition, I say...the NDP platform of the last election was regarded by economists as more fiscally sustainable than that of the conservatives...

Due to the McCarthyist tactics of the conservatives that villify any sort of socialism, the NDP has, since it's inception, been relegated to a supporting role...

Of course, a socialist government would throw the US into a fit of nationalistic fervor, and they'd probably invade us to overthrow our government and restore democracy...

 

[Derry McKinney]

I wonder when people will get fed up with our apparently cycladic political situation?

It's something people flock to. Some political scientists think that it comes from our British heritage and is reinforced by the two party system in the US. I read a thing by a sociologist who thought it was because we watch sports with only two teams in a game as opposed to multi-player sports.

If you look at provincial politics, you see other parties being subsituted. In BC it's the Liberals (really neo-cons) against the NDP; in Saskatchewan it's the NDP against the Saskatchewan Party (really neo-cons), in Manitoba it's the NDP against the Conservatives. There are always only two parties in the running. If a third party rises, one of the other parties becomes too small to be competitive and it has little or nothing to do with policies.

With the way things have been going for the Conservatives under Harper, there is a chance that the NDP will become the second party federally. The Conservatives have dropping like a rock and the NDP have been trending upwards. The NDP are within as few as 5 points of the CPC in Ontario and 6 points nationally according to a Decima Poll released on Saturday. (No 1 posted it already)

Something interesting about that poll is that Harper has taken his party not just lower than the combined Alliance/PC numbers from the election before last, but lower than the Alliance numbers alone in that election.

If that trend continues we could see the NDP as official opposition in this country within a few years. If that happens and there is no move to proportional representation, there is a good chance that the CPC (or whatever they change their name to next) will become the perpetual third party.

 

[mrmom2]

New poll
It makes me sick to see corruption beig rewarded our system of goverment is broken and needs to be fixed :x The gang in Ottawa is nothing but a bunch of thieves :evil: They need to be lynched

 

[Jay]

I think "they" want us to believe the system is "broken" so "they" can "fix" it...for good this time.


We are rather lucky (especially Americans) that our forefathers had the smarts, idea's, and convictions they had.

 

[Reverend Blair]

They aren't rewarding the Liberals, Mom...look at the numbers. Some are going to the Liberals, but the NDP are rising as the Conservatives drop. The message is that people do not like Conservative policies and do not trust the Conservatives to be any less corrupt than the Liberals.

 

[no1important]

I find it hopeful that the NDP are only two points behind conservatives. I guess Harper should start watching his back as the tory knives will be out soon to get him if not already.

Harper will be gone after next election, but its a long summer so if things get worse he may be gone before hand.

 

[Reverend Blair]

If this Gurmant Grewal thing keeps rolling, Harper could be out before the next election. You know the guy is in trouble when people are looking back to Stockwell Day and thinking those were the good old days.

 

[mrmom2]

Harper gone would be the best thing for Canadian politics .Maybe just maybe they could run a electable person

 

[no1important]

I see in Ontario it is 48% for Liberals in Ontario.

The NDP have 24% in Ontario and the Cons only 22% in seat rich Ontario. Click here and scroll down or read whole article if you like

 

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Polls

You know the guy is in trouble when people are looking back to Stockwell Day and thinking those were the good old days.

I thought Stockwell Day was good; at least he has some life. Peter McKay would also be a good guy to lead. Other than that, there is no one else currently an MP within the Conservatives that seems trustworthy or has leader qualities.

I still say Bernard Lord would be good, but I think those Westerners would rather keep losing than have an Eastern leader. Then again, they have an Eastern leader now, in that Torontonian Steve Harper.

Either of those three as leader and then I would consider moving from the Liberals, as it stands now, policy is irrelevant, I can’t have Harper as PM.

 

[no1important]

I think McKay or Stronach would of been a lot better than Harper. They would be a breathe of fresh air that, that party needs, not stale old dusty air like Harper.

 

[Reverend Blair]

If they want to get support from other parties...David Orchard. The party faithful hate him though...he's against deep integration...so that's not going to happen.

 

[Reverend Blair]

CTV

Some Highlights:

* Liberals: 34 per cent (27), +7
* Conservatives: 26 per cent (31), -5
* NDP: 19 per cent (20), -1
* Greens: Nine per cent (7), +2
* Bloc Quebecois: 13 per cent (14), -1

Stephen Harper was viewed favourably by 50 per cent of respondents on May 8. In the June 9 poll, that dropped to 40 per cent -- a 10-point decline.

In the Prairies, a Conservative bastion, Harper went from a favourability rating of 63 per cent down to 44 per cent -- a 19-point drop. But he lost approval in every region.

Among Conservative voters in general, he went from 88 to 76 per cent approval -- a 12-point drop. With "hard" Conservatives, he dropped from 92 to 79 per cent -- a 13-point drop.

The Conservatives are in a crash and burn pattern. Not only that, but a leadership race is likely to make them look stupid so soon after their convention where they gave Harper over 80% approval. That's going to make it hard for them to recover from this.

 

[no1important]

I like this quote:

"But frankly, as Canadians get to know Harper, they (think) he might be a little lacking in leadership," he said.

It hits the nail on the head. His days as leader are obviously numbered.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I can't see them replacing him before the next election though. If they do, then they effectively have to have a new policy convention too, since the policies are intrinsically tied to Harper's leadership. Meanwhile we know that there will be an election in early 2006.

There is also the problem that much of the CPC thinks the solution is not to become more moderate, but to move in the other direction. Some want Stockwell Day back, even though he has already proven extremely unpopular with most of the electorate.

There are also no moderates to speak of who can even try for the leadership. Brison and Stronach have joined the Liberals. MacKay gained quite a reputation when he sold out the moderate side of the party in spite of having signed a written agreement, and threw his support behind Harper.

I don't see an easy way out of this for the Conservatives.

 

[Toro]

Harper will almost certainly lead the Tories into the next election, but if he blows it - which appears to be happening - then the knives will be out. The fact that there may be few who would appear as a moderate in caucas now won't matter when the show starts because people will come out of the wood work - i.e. Bernard Lord. The Tories were leading in the polls a few months ago. That means they're alive and kicking and that's who Canadians want as the alternative to the Liberals. When the Tories pick someone acceptable to Easterners, then they'll be challenging.

 

[Reverend Blair]

They're about done, Toro. The party is filled with radicals from the west who don't want a moderate leader, or even moderates within their rank and file. That makes them unelectable east of Manitoba, and they haven't even got much support in the urban parts of the west anymore.

 

[no1important]

Ipsos-Reid
16/06/2005
Liberal 34
Cons 29
NDP 16
Bloc 12
Green 6



Ipsos-Reid – the federal political landscape
20/06/2005

A new Ipsos-Reid survey of 1000 Canadians conducted from June 14th-16th 2005 and provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, shows that the if a Federal election were held today, Paul Martin and the Liberal Party would attract 34% of the decided votes in Canada (unchanged from May 16-18th, 2005 Ipsos-Reid survey) and would lead the Conservatives (29%, up 1 point) by a 5-point margin.


The NDP at 16% support (down 1 point) trails distantly, while the Green Party (6%, unchanged) registers lowly on the national Federal political radar screen.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds 51% support (down 3 points), giving them a 29-point lead over the next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (22%, down 2 points).

In Ontario, the Liberals (44%, down 2 points) lead, while the Conservatives (31%, unchanged) are firmly entrenched in second place and are followed distantly by the NDP (16%, down 1 point).

Regional Vote Highlights…

•In Ontario, the Liberals (44%, down 2 points) lead, followed by the Conservatives (31%, unchanged), the NDP (16%, down 1 point) and the Green Party (7%, up 2 points).

•In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (51%, down 3 points) hold a 29-point lead over the Liberals (22%, down 2 points), while the NDP (12%, up 3 points), the Conservatives (9%, +2 points), and the Green Party (4%, unchanged) trail distantly.

•In British Columbia, the Liberals (35%, up 5 points) lead, followed by the Conservative Party (29%, down 2 points), the NDP (23%, down 2 points), and the Green Party (11%, down 3 points).

•In Alberta, the Conservatives now hold 60% support (up 12 points), while the Liberals (19%, down 1 point), the NDP (10%, down 13 points), and the Green Party (10%, up 3 points) all trail very distantly.

•In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Liberals (35%, up 4 points) and the Conservatives (33%, down 7 points) are knotted, and are followed closely by the NDP (27%, up 1 point). The Green Party attracts 3% support (unchanged).

•In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (42%, up 4 points) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (38%, down 3 points) - the NDP attracts 17% support (down 3 points).

Ontario:
Conservative Party - 31%
Liberals - 44% *****
NDP - 16%
Green Party - 7%

Quebec:
Conservative Party - 9%
Liberals - 22%
NDP - 12%
Bloc Quebecois - 51% *****
Green Party - 4%

British Columbia:
Conservative Party - 29%
Liberals - 35% *****
NDP - 23%
Green Party - 11%

Alberta:
Conservative Party - 60% *****
Liberals - 19%
NDP - 10%
Green Party - 10%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Conservative Party - 33%
Liberals - 35% *****
NDP - 27%
Green Party - 3%

Atlantic Canada
Conservative Party - 38%
Liberals - 42% *****
NDP - 17%
Green Party - 0%

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and fielded from June 14th to June 16th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1002 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

 

[no1important]

OTTAWA -- Public support for the federal Liberals has stabilized at pre-sponsorship inquiry levels, a new poll suggests.

A national survey completed Monday pegged Liberal support holding steady at 37 per cent, compared with 25 per cent for the Conservatives and 20 per cent for the NDP.

The Decima Research poll provided to The Canadian Press suggests the Liberals have recovered in public opinion following damaging public testimony at Justice John Gomery's inquiry into the federal sponsorship program.

Decima put Liberal support at 44 per cent in Ontario, with Conservatives at 28 and New Democrats at 22.

Allegations of attempted Liberal vote-buying by Conservative MP Gurmant Grewal -- backed by surreptitious tape recordings that paint neither party in a flattering light -- did nothing to help the Conservative cause.

Read the rest here

 

[no1important]

At The One Year Anniversary Of The Federal Election:
Harper Momentum Hits Skids (Down 26 Points) As Grits Maintain Vote Lead – Paul Martin And Liberal Party Momentum Holds Steady (But Still Strongly Negative)

Decided Vote: Liberals (35%, +1 Point),
Conservatives (27%, -2 Points),
NDP (18%, + 2 Points),
Green Party (6%, Unchanged)
-- In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois Sits At 51% Support (Unchanged)

From here but need to subscribe to see rest