Polls

[#juan]

"As we say, actions speak louder than signing pieces of paper.

As usual, the Liberals are big on speeches,studies,surveys, and negotiations but small on results.

Swallowed it hook, line, and sinker didn't you.. Your numbers are what you report. I don't believe their numbers. The U.S. doesn't want to join anything where somebody else might get a look at what they are doing. I know they are almost finished adding forty odd coal-fired generating stations, while Ontario is getting rid of the last of theirs. The Americans drive the same cars as we do, and they have more of them per capita. Cheers

 

[Breakthrough2006]

So in the face of scientific studies, I should just take your word for it?

 

[#juan]

Lib 40%, CPC 26%, NDP 18%, Bloc 11%, Green 4%

the CPC and the Bloc are going down, and the NDP is going up.

 

[Breakthrough2006]

Lib 34%, CPC 30%, NDP 16%, Bloc 14%, Green 6%

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleN...elxn_poll_051204/20051205?s_name=election2006

Spoke too soon.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I read your story, Breakthrough. Here's something interesting:

Now, look at Ontario (margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 per cent; change from pre-election number in brackets):

* Liberals - 42 (+2)
* Conservatives - 30 (-5)
* NDP - 19 (-1)
* Greens - 9 (+4)

You're losing Ontario, BT...down 5 points. The Greens have picked up four.

 

[Breakthrough2006]

You're losing Ontario, BT...down 5 points. The Greens have picked up four.

My point was not to try and prove anything other than polls are useless. Especially when the election is 7 weeks away.

The same way one can post a poll result showing the Liberals are in majority territory some one else can post a poll to show the Libs and the Cons are neck and neck.

Was it not you that said all the smart people know that the Liberals will NOT win a majority?

 

[Reverend Blair]

Polls aren't useless though...if they were, businesses and parties wouldn't spend millions on them.

Polls really work to show trends though...several polls over time tend to be much more accurate than any single poll.

The trend that's showing up in all of the polls is that Harper is sinking and the Liberals are rising. It's highly unlikely that all of the polls are wrong.

I've noticed another trend lately too...as the Conservatives sink they get a little meaner every day. I don't mean the guys on TV, I mean the ones showing up on web sites.

 

[#juan]

Polls go up and down close to, or within their margin of error. I'm always amazed at how close the polls are to the results. Admittedly, it is still early, but my bet would be on a liberal win with a small majority.

 

[no1important]

Lib 34%, CPC 30%, NDP 16%, Bloc 14%, Green 6%

your link

Spoke too soon.

Nope. That was a week old poll.

From your link and under that poll:

The poll was conducted between Wednesday and Saturday nights, by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail. This chart compares the numbers to 2004 statistics.

See an old old poll.

 

[Reverend Blair]

See an old old poll.

Just old Ukrainians around here, No 1. :lol:

 

[yballa09]

not only are the cons losing ground on the liberals, but in recent polls the bloc has dropped a few points, which pretty much only helps the libs out.

 

[#juan]

Just old Ukrainians around here, No 1. :lol:

I just got it.. :lol: :lol:

 

[no1important]

In the densely populated Lower Mainland region (Vancouver and area)

Strategic Counsel

* Liberals: 37 (+4)
* Conservatives: 28 (-7)
* NDP: 24 (-2)
* Green: 11 (+6)

 

[#juan]

Lib. - 39

Cons. - 27

NDP - 16

Grn. - 5

I expected there to be more of a change after Bush's henchmen complained about Martin's so-called "insult" in Montreal.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I think that should bring a boost. Being criticized by the Bush administration is a pretty good sign that you are right. That's understood in most places where it isn;t considered fashionable to marry your sister.

 

[MMMike]

Liberal lead hides regional weakness
Poll reveals major shifts in key locations, suggesting significantly reduced minority By BRIAN LAGHI

Friday, December 9, 2005 Posted at 4:28 AM EST

From Friday's Globe and Mail

The Liberal Party's steady lead in the national election polls is masking a series of regional swings that would significantly reduce Paul Martin's minority and leave Canadians with an even more deadlocked Parliament than the last one.

That conclusion can be found in a new Strategic Counsel poll that shows the Liberals have lost a substantial amount of support in Montreal, where the Bloc Québécois is poised to pick up more seats, while the Conservatives are doing better in Southwestern Ontario than they did in the 2004 election.

By the same token, regional changes in British Columbia suggest the Tories could see their Ontario gains offset by losses to both the Liberals and the New Democratic Party in British Columbia.

The data suggest an appreciably reduced minority government for the Liberals. But a shift of a couple of percentage points could see the Tories under Stephen Harper form a minority government, even without taking as many overall votes as the Liberals.

Globe and Mail

 

[Jay]

"...while the Conservatives are doing better in Southwestern Ontario than they did in the 2004 election."

 

[Reverend Blair]

That doesn't include the boost that Martin will get for pissing off the Bush regime though, Mikey. ;-)

 

[#juan]

Lib. - 39

Cons. - 27

NDP - 16

Grn. - 5

This is the latest SES poll from this morning. I guess it depends on who you believe. This early in the election and the polls will go up and down a fair amount. Every poll for the last month has had the Liberals ahead of the CPC and now some dip wants to say the Liberal lead is hiding weakness. I guess we'll see.

 

[no1important]

Well Libs have been 38-40 % in the last bunch of polls, so they are holding steady there, the coons seem stuck around 27-28 and I expect Martin to go up a bit for the way he criticized America on Kyoto.

I for one am surprised how well the libs are doing in BC.