Re: RE: N. Korea: It can launch pre-emptive strike
annabattler said:
Of course,North Korea enjoys the protection of China, a nation certainly capable of pre-emptive strikes.
I'm not sure about that. the PRC certainly could defend its own and it would not be wise to try to attack it for many reasons. As for the Taiwan issue, that one's a toss up... so do we want to try and find out?
But as for pre-emptive strike capability, I highly doubt it; China's very military philosophy is based on national (this also includes Taiwan as a province) defence, which would naturally mean that all military spending, training, equipment, etc., would likewise revolve around such a strategy. I don't see how being able to nuke Los Angeles would fit into such a strategy in any practical way. According to such a philosophy, building a pre-emptive strike capacity aimed at US soil would just be a waste of valuable resources. Pre-emptive against taiwan, on the other hand, might fit in as a deterrent against Taiwan suddenly unilaterally declaring independance.
Now being able to turn a US fleet within China's (again, this could include Taiwan as a province) waters into twisted metal would certainly be an objective of such a philosophy. Their purchases are thus more likely to be short range and maximum destruction while avoiding potential fallout from close targets. So this would suggest that even nuclear power can't fit very nicely into such a strategy except perhaps as a deterrent of last resort. More likely this would involve a close-range and large-scale conventional missile or torpedo war off the Chinese coast.
North Korea's situation is different. I don't know much about its military philosophy beyond pretecting its borders (does it have any intentions of trying to take South Korea? Maybe one of you have read more on that than I have). Based on such a philosophy, seeing that North Korea would have a hard time taking the US military conventionally, and judging by the US' philosophy since Shrub, having a nuclear deterrent fits in nicely since they, unlike China, would really have nothing left to lose in the event of war against the US. So based on that, a "kamikaze-type strategy (i.e., MAD) would be an ideal strategy to send the US a strong message not to mess with them unless they want fallout, both literally and figuratively.
So while China would be VERY hesitant about using nukes (it has alot to gain and lose, and so will naturally be cautious), NK would be much more liberal in their dispersal even if all the fallout fell over Korea; they'd just figure that had they not used the nukes, the US would have them anyway. So better no one than the US.