Nobel Peace Prize for Mark Carney? One prediction market buzzing over PM's chances
Monday morning saw Kalshi briefly listed Canadian leader as favourite to win award
Author of the article:Spiro Papuckoski
Published Sep 30, 2026 • Last updated 1 day ago • 2 minute read
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to journalists outside his office in Ottawa the day after the Liberals won three byelections on Sept. 1, 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to journalists outside his office in Ottawa the day after the Liberals won three byelections on Sept. 1, 2026. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia Network
The trade and tariff war between the United States and Canada has one betting market buzzing over Mark Carney’s chances at being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
On Monday morning, U.S.-based prediction market Kalshi briefly listed the prime minister as the favourite with about a 14% chance at winning the award. But by Wednesday morning, his odds have dropped to about 5%.
Carney currently trails several organizations and individuals including Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, Doctors Without Borders, and Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba.
Fox News host Laura Ingraham was in disbelief that Carney would even appear on the shortlist of Kalshi’s candidates.
‘Picked a fight with Trump’
“His own country is under massive economic strain, but he’s a Nobel contender because he picked a fight with Trump,” she wrote on X. “Astounding.”
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has lobbied for the honour and has been nominated by several Republican lawmakers in the past, has fallen to a 2% chance, dragged down over the Iran war.
Over at cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, Carney is nowhere to be found on its Nobel Peace Price leaderboard.
No evidence PM on shortlist
In either event, there is no evidence that Carney is even on the shortlist for the honour, which is set to be awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on Oct. 9.
Carney, who took over the Liberal Party after Justin Trudeau stepped down as prime minister last year, gained international attention immediately for fighting back against Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods despite a free trade deal — the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement — in place.
Supporters have cited his January speech in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum where he emphasized the end of the rules-based international order while also outlining how Canada is shifting its economy and building strategic partnerships with middle powers.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a speech
Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a speech in the hemicycle of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Photo by Jean-Christophe Verhaegen /Getty Images
In recent weeks, Carney has also courted the European Union to diversify the Canadian economy and vowed to create a deeper alliance with the 27 member states.
Critics have come after the prime minister for his handling of the trade crisis and failed negotiations with the U.S.
“With pressure mounting from Washington, Brussels and Beijing, Canada cannot afford managed decline,” Conservative MP Shuv Majumdar recently wrote on X. “Build at home, unleash our economy, and save Canadians money.”
Trade and tariff war between U.S. and Canada has one betting market buzzing over Mark Carney's odds at winning Nobel Peace Prize. Read more.
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