Carney Liberals maintain 9-point lead over Conservatives heading into late summer
Poilievre's favourable number is down two points
Author of the article:Bryan Passifiume
Published Aug 03, 2026 • Last updated 21 hours ago • 2 minute read
Carney and Poilievre
Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, left, and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre.
OTTAWA — With only weeks left in the summer, the Mark Carney Liberals are holding onto their nine-point lead against the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives.
That’s according to Liaison Strategies’ latest federal tracker poll, released Monday, which shows Canada’s political landscape barrelling through the dog days of summer, with the opinions of decided voters largely unchanged from previous weeks.
“The Liberals are down one point to 43%, the Conservatives are down one point to 34%, and the NDP is up one point to 12%,” said Liaison’s David Valentin.
“The topline has moved, but only a little. The broader story is that the Liberals remain in the low-to-mid 40s and the Conservatives remain in the mid-30s.”
Support been consistent in 2026
With approval ratings for both parties brushing parity at a little under 40% late last year, the divide between the Liberals and Tories has largely established itself throughout 2026, with support for the Conservatives hitting a one-year low in the early spring, at the same time the Liberals saw their best numbers all year.
Liberal support dipped in June to 40%, while the Conservatives spent the year between 30 and 35%, unable to score any support above that mark.
While the decided vote maintains its trajectory, polling suggests interesting movement among undecided voters.
“Undecided is down to 11%, which is a notable move from 14% last week,” he said.
“The Liberals have not expanded the decided-voter lead, but there are fewer voters sitting outside the ballot question.”
How the numbers look regionally
Regionally, numbers remain stable, but not homogeneous — in Ontario, the Liberals lead the Tories 48% to 36%.
In Quebec, the Liberals are leading 44% to the Bloc Quebecois’ 25% and the Tories’ 20%, and 43% to 31% over the Conservatives in B.C.
“The Conservatives lead in Alberta, 51% to 32%, and in the Prairies, 45% to 32%,” he added.
Carney’s approval ratings went up by one point from last week, while disapproval ratings fell by the same number — with 57% approving of his job, while 34% said they aren’t happy with the PM, and 9% saying they weren’t sure.
Poilievre approval numbers soften
“Poilievre’s favourable number is down two points to 34%, while his unfavourable number is up one point to 52%,” Valentin said.
“Eight per cent are not sure and 5% are not familiar with him. His favourability has been better than this in the tracker, including 36% last week and 39% earlier this year, so this is a soft week for him personally.”
The poll was conducted between July 19 to Aug. 1, and the data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 census.
The margin of error was ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
bpassifiume@postmedia.com
X: @bryanpassifiume
Liaison Strategies political tracker shows Liberals leading Conservatives 43% to 34% as Poilievre sees personal favourability slip. Read more
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