That's weird I've never once based my federal vote on what was going on provincially or vice versa.
Can you give me one intelligent reason why someone would do that?
Since you asked, sure i'll take a crack at it.
In general we are supposed to vote for the best council member, trustee, MLA and MP according to whom we feel will best represent us.
In practice things can be slightly different.
In reality some votes are "locked in" thus if you are a hard core lefty you may tend to vote for the most left leaning representatives in Municipal, Provincial and Federal elections.
So forget about the "locked in" votes.
Next a lot of folks tend to vote for best representative municipally however provincially some of those same folks may vote more for the leadership of a party than for the individual MLA's.
Federally even more people tend to vote for the leadership of the party in question over the merits of individual MP candidates.
Not saying that it's right but thats how some folks tend to vote.
Now lets look at Ontario, a Province with a lot of swayable or somewhat undecided voters.
Traditionally Ontario used to contain a heck of a lot of Federal Liberals, especially in the TO heartlands.
After the Chretien/Martin fiasco a lot of soft Liberal votes went to the Federal Conservatives.
A lot of those votes are still soft and could easily swing back to the Federal Liberals.
Now lets look at it Provincially.
McGuinty was a Liberal disaster and the present Horwath/ Wynne tango benefits nobody but the Dips.
Probably some reviews will be called to look at the power plant cancellations, ehealth and green power.
This also is not good news for the Libs provincially.
Now lets swing back to Ontario on a Federal level.
Lots of folks in Ontario are growing tired of Harper and could quite easily be convinced to vote Federal Liberal once again.
But on the Provincial side you have this slow moving Liberal train wreck.
And that may keep some folks in Harpers camp.
In BC Dix and the Dippers will get in Provincially.
If the Dip's do quite well, in most peoples eyes, that could help the Dips out Federally in BC with a few extra seats.
Especially with young, left leaning folks.
But lets say the opposite comes true.
Lets say the Dippers trash BC once again.
The pipelines dont go in, coal terminals get cancelled, O&G drilling shuts down, the hardrock mines get scrubbed, the loggers get laid off and so on.
Business taxes go up and then the companies that can tend to move east to Alberta.
Income and property taxes go up and then so does unemployment.
And then the teachers and fellow unionists in the public sector get large raises.
Public debt goes through the roof.
Hypothetically speaking.
That would cost the Dippers federally in BC.
A bunch of potentially swingable or undecided voters would then be burned Federally for the Dips and their votes would then go Con or Lib.
Thats how in my view Provincial politics can influence Federal voting trends.
I am not saying it should, but I think it does.