Iran is nukeless, program ended 2003

[darkbeaver]

Richard Pearl thinks differently so do the Neo-Zionists, there is a difference of opinion between elements of the present American Administration and the pentagoon. The urasian arc cannot be closed without Irans cooperation. This is necessary. I think Iran's in a more dangerous position than it was last week. I think the people of the western world particularly Americans share that danger. I believe there's no way to reverse the process of conquest that's in play.Wolfy and company either finish the job or face the gallows. I know a few million more dead present no impediment to those who starve and murder for thier dayly bread. They will finish the game, it's the only sure way for them to save thier arses.

 

[Niflmir]

Richard Pearl thinks differently so do the Neo-Zionists, there is a difference of opinion between elements of the present American Administration and the pentagoon. The urasian arc cannot be closed without Irans cooperation. This is necessary. I think Iran's in a more dangerous position than it was last week.

Possibly. It depends how seriously people take these assertions without evidence or statistical declarations contained in the National Intelligence Estimate. That is why it is unfortunate that this report is gaining prominence; by acting as if it is credible and using it to discredit everybody's favorite pin cushion, President George W. Bush, people inadvertently give credit to the assertions that there was in fact a weapons program in Iran. Something there is currently no evidence of, and should be irrelevant in any case.

 

[darkbeaver]

Possibly. It depends how seriously people take these assertions without evidence or statistical declarations contained in the National Intelligence Estimate. That is why it is unfortunate that this report is gaining prominence; by acting as if it is credible and using it to discredit everybody's favorite pin cushion, President George W. Bush, people inadvertently give credit to the assertions that there was in fact a weapons program in Iran. Something there is currently no evidence of, and should be irrelevant in any case.

I see the distance between the old and the new administrations being built, but the policys that the mainstrem candidates do not deviate substantially IMO. I can see what you mean about the credit for fake victories. Irrelevancy rules .:-?

 

[earth_as_one]

The US is conceding that there is no proof Iran has a nuclear weapon program, but slipping in more misinformation that makes people believe Iran had a nuclear weapon program.

The IAEA nor anyone else has any evidence that Iran had a nuclear weapon program. If anyone has a link to this proof the the NIE based its assertion on that Iran had a nuclear weapon program, I'd like to see it.

Everything I've read about Iran appears to support their claims that they do not seek nuclear weapons.

 

[darkbeaver]

It would be a lot easier for the Pakistani nuclear weapons to be used, I read where those buttons are now in American hands if ever they wern't.

 

[s243a]

Doesn’t Iran have a bunch of centrifuges built which are being used to enrich uranium?

 

[darkbeaver]

Doesn’t Iran have a bunch of centrifuges built which are being used to enrich uranium?

Yes they do, what's the problem? You have lived beside and continue to live beside a country that has thousands of centrifuges employed making weapons grade stuff, why aren't you alarmed about that?Especially since they are the only nation to have used them just because they could.

 

[darkbeaver]

A Miracle: Honest Intel on Iran Nukes

By Ray McGovern
12/04/07 "ICH" -- -- For those who have doubts about miracles, a double one occurred today. An honest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear program has been issued, and its "Key Judgments" were made public.
With redraft after redraft, it was what the Germans call eine schwere Geburt – a difficult birth, 10 months in gestation.
I do not know how often Vice President Dick Cheney visited CIA headquarters during the gestation period, but I am told he voiced his displeasure as soon as he saw the first sonogram/draft very early this year and is so displeased with what issued that he has refused to be the godfather.
This time Cheney and his neocon colleagues were unable to abort the process. And after delivery to the press, this child is going to be very hard to explain – the more so since it is legitimate.
The main points of the NIE:
"We judge that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program…
"We assess with moderate confidence Tehran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.
"We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely…
"We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame.
"We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015."
Having reached these conclusions, it is not surprising that the NIE's authors make a point of saying up front (in bold type), "This NIE does not [italics in original] assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons."
This, of course, pulls out the rug from under Cheney's claim of a "fairly robust new nuclear program" in Iran and President Bush's inaccurate assertion that Iranian leaders have even admitted they are developing nuclear weapons.
Apparently, intelligence community analysts are no longer required to produce the faith-based intelligence that brought us the Oct. 1, 2002, NIE "Iraq's Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction" – the worst in the history of U.S. intelligence.
Truth be told, one of the Iran NIE's findings was written into its first draft, from which Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell drew in telling the Senate Armed Services Committee on Feb. 27 that Iran could possibly develop a nuclear weapon by early-to-mid-next decade.
McConnell said not a word, though, about Iran's having halted its nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. And in February, he was still adhering to the faith-based approach, saying, "We assess that Iran seeks to develop a nuclear weapon."
At which point Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) tried to sum up the proceedings with the disingenuous comment "We all agree, then, that the Iranians are trying to get nuclear weapons."
Curiously, McConnell indicated recently that the key findings of NIEs would no longer be made public.
My guess is that the Pentagon, and especially Adm. William Fallon, commander of our forces in the Middle East, succeeded in persuading McConnell to go public. Several months ago, Fallon was reliably reported to have said, "We are not going to do Iran on my watch."
And it is an open secret that he and other senior military officers, except those of the Air Force, are strongly opposed to getting into a war with Iran for which the U.S. is so ill prepared.
Will President George W. Bush and our domesticated media succeed in dismissing this latest NIE as "guesswork," as he has in the past? It is going to be highly interesting to see how the White House will try to spin this one.
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the Ecumenical Church of the Saviour. During his 27-year career as a CIA analyst, he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and produced/briefed the President’s Daily Brief. He is now on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).

 

[darkbeaver]

Despite Knowledge That Iran Halted Nuke Program

White House Continued To Warn Of False Threat
By Think Progress
12/04/07 "Think Progress" -- -- The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released yesterday concludes that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” It adds that “Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007,” and the country is “less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.” The assessment, which relies on data collected through Oct. 31, was reportedly completed in 2006, but was blocked by administration officials who wanted it to be more in line with Vice President Cheney’s hardline views.
As The Washington Monthly’s Kevin Drum notes, the NIE’s “basic parameters were almost certainly common knowledge in the White House” at least by last year, when the document was finished. Yet even in the past two months, the administration has continued to push its faulty, inflammatory rhetoric and claim that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. Some examples:

“So I’ve told people that if you’re interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon. I take the threat of Iran with a nuclear weapon very seriously.” [Bush, 10/17/07]
“Our country, and the entire international community, cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions. … The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences.” [Cheney, 10/21/07]
“The problem is Iran, and Iran has not stepped back from trying to pursue a nuclear weapon, and — or reprocessing and enriching uranium, which would lead to a nuclear weapon.” [White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, 10/26/07]
“We talked about Iran and the desire to work jointly to convince the Iranian regime to give up their nuclear weapons ambitions, for the sake of peace.” [Bush, 11/7/07]
“We’re in a position now, clearly, especially when we look at Iran, where it’s very, very important we succeed in our efforts, our national security efforts, to discourage the Iranians from enriching uranium and producing nuclear weapons.” [Cheney, 11/9/07]
“We are convinced that they are developing nuclear weapons.” [Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, 11/13/07]
​

The White House isn’t yet ready to give up its spin. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley will be speaking to the press at 3:15 PM EST today, and has already claimed that the NIE “confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons.”
UPDATE: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said, “It would be a strategic calamity to attack Iran at this time.”

 

[earth_as_one]

Doesn’t Iran have a bunch of centrifuges built which are being used to enrich uranium?

Yes they do.

So far these IAEA monitored centrifuges have only produced NPT compliant reactor grade material, not NPT violating weapon grade. The difference is like comparing beer with alcool. Only weapon grade components can make a nuke. The IAEA has found no sign that Iran is making or has ever made weapon grade material despite American misinformation to the contrary.

But don't take the IAEA's word for it. Go inspect these facilities for yourself if you like:

BBC

4 October 2006
Iran 'to open atomic site tours'

Iran's president has ordered that the country's nuclear sites be opened to foreign tourists to prove its programme is peaceful, state media report.


No details were given on the nature of the trips, or when they might begin.
Possible attractions would include the plants at Isfahan and Natanz, or a reactor being built in Bushehr.

The reported proposal comes after the UN Security Council has told Tehran to halt uranium enrichment, amid fears it is trying to build nuclear arms.
Iran maintains it has a right to a nuclear programme, which it says is purely for civilian purposes....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5405476.stm

 

[Niflmir]

The US is conceding that there is no proof Iran has a nuclear weapon program, but slipping in more misinformation that makes people believe Iran had a nuclear weapon program.

The IAEA nor anyone else has any evidence that Iran had a nuclear weapon program. If anyone has a link to this proof the the NIE based its assertion on that Iran had a nuclear weapon program, I'd like to see it.

Everything I've read about Iran appears to support their claims that they do not seek nuclear weapons.

You can pick up the NIE "report" over here. In it such a statement as:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program;

which clearly implies that Iran had a weapons program with certainty equal to 1, but probably terminated it. Now people are stating, "Iran halted its weapons program in 2003," as if they were certain that there was a weapons program in 2002. No where in that NIE document does a statement like, "We estimate with X certainty that Iran had a nuclear weapons program," occur; the release is framed upon an assertion that it did. The evidence for these statements is never discussed and they are never earnest about the credibility of their intelligence on the history of the supposed nuclear weapons program.

There is also this quote from the financial times,

Dana Perino, White House spokeswoman, revealed on Wednesday that President George W. Bush had been told in August the intelligence estimate would be delayed because “new information had been obtained just as they were about to finalise the report”. Mr Bush was told “Iran does in fact have a covert nuclear weapons programme, but it may be suspended.”

The focus has been completely wrong on this issue. Industrialized countries party to the nonproliferation treaty (NPT) refused to help Iran begin a civil nuclear program, in violation of their obligations. Iran was thus forced to deal with Pakistan, who not being a party to the nonproliferation treaty is considered a black market for nuclear technologies. Iran didn't disclose this to the nonproliferation treaty nations because it had no reason to divulge national objectives to unhelpful nations. Only when the NPT nations learn of this program did they offer to "help" Iran, contingent on Iran scrapping its own production chain would the NPT "legitimize" Iran by allowing Iran to be dependent for reactor technology and reactor fuels. This is all outlined in the Nov 17th IAEA board report.

How does alienating a nation in any way take steps towards building healthy relations with it? The aim of current policy is to weaken Iran, not strengthen relations. There are genuine concerns in Iran that will never be addressed so long as this prejudiced international hostility is considered the norm of relations.

 

[Niflmir]

My apologies, I made a grave error in my above post. In the NIE document it does in fact attribute a statistical statement to the likelihood of a past Iranian weapons program:

We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.

 

[gopher]

U.S. report on Iran makes attack less likely-Blix

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L05171913.htm


The latest U.S. intelligence findings on Iran make a military attack on Tehran unlikely in the near future, former chief United Nations arms inspector Hans Blix said on Wednesday. The Swede, who also headed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said he was "surprised" to learn of the sceptical assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities released this week by U.S. intelligence agencies. "The main result is that it has excluded that there will be any military action in the intermediate future," Blix told reporters at the United Nations offices in Geneva. "An armed act against Iran is not credible, cannot happen after this, in this period over the next few years."



That must be a major disappointment to Bush loving right wing warmongers. But I would not underestimate Bush's capabilities of provoking war in order to ''justify'' another invasion.

 

[MikeyDB]

The United States was one half of the genesis and promulgation of the "Cold War". Within the U.S. people watched as the McCarthy terrorists waged hate and made a mockery of the Constitution. Nothing should surprise when it comes to America and Americans. A social structure fashioned to the appetites of the wealthy at the expense of the poor will and has used all means available to condition "consumers" to a system of beliefs and prevalent attitude that serves the interests of the wealthy oligarchy that runs the United States of America.

This is a fundamentally corrupt government that has precipitated and contributed to more devastation to the planet as a whole and interferred in and manipulated militaries and the people of other nations to wars and conflict in the name of "profit".

How can anyone believe anything this government or its peoples elected representation say about damn near anything?

Just as Saudi Arabia and several other nations sit on pools of oil, the United States has sat on the greatest opportunity to demonstrate the greatest potential that any people have ever had....and have wasted it.

At the same time as we should be amazed at the naïveté of the American peole, we should be alarmed that hundreds of millions can be so easily manipulated by wealthy corporations and corrupt governments.

The United States ...just like Canada....is filled to the brim with ignorant apathetic and foolish people who will permit their governments to do ....anything....

 

[thomaska]

So why, after years of being wrong on so many things(according to the BDS-Bush Derangment Syndrome- victims), the US Intelligence community is now suddenly right?

It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that it makes Bush look bad does it?

Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope war with Iran never happens, so I'm not trying to support him in his quest to fight the Persians. Just trying to point out the funny little coincidence, that the Intelligence community now appears to be the Left's new best friend...at least until they water-board another mass-murdering terrorist, then I assume they will be the incompetent bad-guys again...

 

[Niflmir]

So why, after years of being wrong on so many things(according to the BDS-Bush Derangment Syndrome- victims), the US Intelligence community is now suddenly right?

It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that it makes Bush look bad does it?

Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope war with Iran never happens, so I'm not trying to support him in his quest to fight the Persians. Just trying to point out the funny little coincidence, that the Intelligence community now appears to be the Left's new best friend...at least until they water-board another mass-murdering terrorist, then I assume they will be the incompetent bad-guys again...

I basically rewrote my bashing of this report in the other thread where you pose this exact argument because I felt you may not have read my response in this thread, but in this thread you should have had a different impression. It is the media, not the left, who give undue credit to this release by using it to discount President George W. Bush when other, more reputable and better sourced documents already do so. In giving credit to this document by using it to this effect they give undue credit to the other specious claims contained in it. Claims which can be prejudicially used, if one assumes their truth as opposed to diligently investigating them, to retroactively justify the hostile sanctions and the continuation of them.

 

[earth_as_one]

We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons....

A very interesting choice of words, considering that the direction of peaceful and weapon nuclear technology are the same... up to a point. No one claims proof Iran ever crossed that point or even came close to that point. For example:

Centrifuge technology is NPT compliant to a point. Use them to produce highly refined weapons grade material and you can't claim a peaceful purpose.

The quoted statement above is absolutely true, meaningless and yet deliberates creates a false perception. I can see how easily people can be bamboozled by misinformation. If you just glanced at the headline you would believe something unproven to be certain.

Inevitably Iran will improve their centrifuge technology. Improving purity remains NPT compliant to a point. The same people will twist that information to create a perception that Iran has restarted their non-existant nuclear weapon program.

That said... Iran still could be building a bomb. Has Iran disclosed the location of all their facilities?

What we do know is that the Bushehr reactor is a light water reactor:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushehr#Nuclear_development

which burns Uranium 235 and produces Plutonium 239
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor

P239 has the best fissionable material characteristics when refined pure enough.

Fissile Material Basics
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_terrorism/fissile-materials-basics.html

After Iran starts up their reactor, they will of course want recover their P239. That would also be NPT compliant if they don't over refine it and use it as reactor fuel. That process would also have to be monitored.

 

[gopher]

``So why, after years of being wrong on so many things(according to the BDS-Bush Derangment Syndrome- victims), the US Intelligence community is now suddenly right?``


They were correct in the first place when they told Bush there were no WMD in Iraq. It was radical reichster Bush and his defenders who, despite their reports, insisted that there were WMD there and started their criminal war for the oil profits.

 

[gopher]

Bush claims to be a devout Christian - so why doesn't he apologize to Iran??