How the GW myth is perpetuated

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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About as much as these do:



Pic courtesy of NOAA.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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I like what they say on that link.

Contrails are a concern in climate studies as increased jet aircraft traffic may result in an increase in cloud cover. It has been estimated that in certain heavy air-traffic corridors, cloud cover has increased by as much as 20%. An increase in cloud amount changes the region's radiation balance. For example, solar energy reaching the surface may be reduced, resulting in surface cooling. They also reduce the terrestrial energy losses of the planet, resulting in a warming. Jet exhaust also plays a role in modifying the chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. NASA and the DOE are sponsoring a research program to study the impact contrails have on atmospheric chemistry, weather and climate. In this series of satellite images we will investigate the duration of contrails.
BUT and this is hillarious. IPCC dismisses contrails completely.
 

petros

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Surprising that you don't hear the IPCC or a rabid Suzuki raising hell about it... I suppose that they'd be expected to refrain from flying all over the place every week.
They invented a way to cover it up easily. They started a conspiracy theory called "chemtrails" just like the "2012" **** makes it impossible to find real inofrmation on the magnetic pole shift.

Interesting view from 40,000+ feet
What is really amazing is that those trails were tracked for 3 1/2 hrs.

They say one trail covers 25sq km of sky with vapour. How many flights per day globally?

Apparently all we need is a really damn good rail system in Nor Am and things will be back to reality.
 

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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The IPCC dismisses it completely? Petros, it becomes clear as time passes that you don't know what the IPCC actually says, you just assume that they dismiss something, or that they ignore something else. It's pretty easy to just google "IPCC contrail" and you get a link to Working Group 1, which is to say the group working on the physical science, not the mitigation, adaptations, or policy work:

2.6 Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cloudiness

The IPCC separately evaluated the RF from subsonic and supersonic aircraft operations in the Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (IPCC, 1999), hereinafter designated as IPCC-1999. Like many other sectors, subsonic aircraft operations around the globe contribute directly and indirectly to the RF of climate change. This section only assesses the aspects that are unique to the aviation sector, namely the formation of persistent condensation trails (contrails), their impact on cirrus cloudiness, and the effects of aviation aerosols. Persistent contrail formation and induced cloudiness are indirect effects from aircraft operations because they depend on variable humidity and temperature conditions along aircraft flight tracks. Thus, future changes in atmospheric humidity and temperature distributions in the upper troposphere will have consequences for aviation-induced cloudiness. Also noted here is the potential role of aviation aerosols in altering the properties of clouds that form later in air containing aircraft emissions.

2.6.2 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Persistent Line-Shaped Contrails

Aircraft produce persistent contrails in the upper troposphere in ice-supersaturated air masses (IPCC, 1999). Contrails are thin cirrus clouds, which reflect solar radiation and trap outgoing longwave radiation. The latter effect is expected to dominate for thin cirrus (Hartmann et al., 1992; Meerkötter et al., 1999), thereby resulting in a net positive RF value for contrails. Persistent contrail cover has been calculated globally from meteorological data (e.g., Sausen et al., 1998) or by using a modified cirrus cloud parametrization in a GCM (Ponater et al., 2002). Contrail cover calculations are uncertain because the extent of supersaturated regions in the atmosphere is poorly known. The associated contrail RF follows from determining an optical depth for the computed contrail cover. The global RF values for contrail and induced cloudiness are assumed to vary linearly with distances flown by the global fleet if flight ambient conditions remain unchanged. The current best estimate for the RF of persistent linear contrails for aircraft operations in 2000 is +0.010 W m–2 (Table 2.9; Sausen et al., 2005). The value is based on independent estimates derived from Myhre and Stordal (2001b) and Marquart et al. (2003) that were updated for increased aircraft traffic in Sausen et al. (2005) to give RF estimates of +0.015 W m–2 and +0.006 W m–2, respectively. The uncertainty range is conservatively estimated to be a factor of three. The +0.010 W m–2 value is also considered to be the best estimate for 2005 because of the slow overall growth in aviation fuel use in the 2000 to 2005 period. The decrease in the best estimate from the TAR by a factor of two results from reassessments of persistent contrail cover and lower optical depth estimates (Marquart and Mayer, 2002; Meyer et al., 2002; Ponater et al., 2002; Marquart et al., 2003). The new estimates include diurnal changes in the solar RF, which decreases the net RF for a given contrail cover by about 20% (Myhre and Stordal, 2001b). The level of scientific understanding of contrail RF is considered low, since important uncertainties remain in the determination of global values (Section 2.9, Table 2.11). For example, unexplained regional differences are found in contrail optical depths between Europe and the USA that have not been fully accounted for in model calculations (Meyer et al., 2002; Ponater et al., 2002; Palikonda et al., 2005).

Table 2.9. Radiative forcing terms for contrail and cirrus effects caused by global subsonic aircraft operations.

Radiative forcing (W m–2) 1992 IPCC 2000 IPCC 2000 Sausen et al.
CO2 0.018 0.025 0.025

Persistent linear contrails 0.020 0.034 0.010 (0.006 to 0.015)

Aviation-induced cloudiness
without persistent contrails 0 to 0.040 n.a.

Aviation-induced cloudiness
with persistent contrails 0.030(0.010 to 0.080)

2.6.3 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Aviation- Induced Cloudiness


Individual persistent contrails are routinely observed to shear and spread, covering large additional areas with cirrus cloud (Minnis et al., 1998). Aviation aerosol could also lead to changes in cirrus cloud (see Section 2.6.4). Aviation-induced cloudiness (AIC) is defined to be the sumx of all changes in cloudiness associated with aviation operations. Thus, an AIC estimate includes persistent contrail cover. Because spreading contrails lose their characteristic linear shape, a component of AIC is indistinguishable from background cirrus. This basic ambiguity, which prevented the formulation of a best estimate of AIC amounts and the associated RF in IPCC-1999, still exists for this assessment. Estimates of the ratio of induced cloudiness cover to that of persistent linear contrails range from 1.8 to 10 (Minnis et al., 2004; Mannstein and Schumann, 2005[10]), indicating the uncertainty in estimating AIC amounts. Initial attempts to quantify AIC used trend differences in cirrus cloudiness between regions of high and low aviation fuel consumption (Boucher, 1999). Since IPCC-1999, two studies have also found significant positive trends in cirrus cloudiness in some regions of high air traffic and found lower to negative trends outside air traffic regions (Zerefos et al., 2003; Stordal et al., 2005). Using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) database, these studies derived cirrus cover trends for Europe of 1 to 2% per decade over the last one to two decades. A study with the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) provides further support for these trends (Stubenrauch and Schumann, 2005). However, cirrus trends that occurred due to natural variability, climate change or other anthropogenic effects could not be accounted for in these studies. Cirrus trends over the USA (but not over Europe) were found to be consistent with changes in contrail cover and frequency (Minnis et al., 2004). Thus, significant uncertainty remains in attributing observed cirrus trends to aviation.

Regional cirrus trends were used as a basis to compute a global mean RF value for AIC in 2000 of +0.030 W m–2 with a range of +0.01 to +0.08 W m–2 (Stordal et al., 2005). This value is not considered a best estimate because of the uncertainty in the optical properties of AIC and in the assumptions used to derive AIC cover. However, this value is in good agreement with the upper limit estimate for AIC RF in 1992 of +0.026 W m–2 derived from surface and satellite cloudiness observations (Minnis et al., 2004). A value of +0.03 W m–2 is close to the upper-limit estimate of +0.04 W m–2 derived for non-contrail cloudiness in IPCC-1999. Without an AIC best estimate, the best estimate of the total RF value for aviation-induced cloudiness (Section 2.9.2, Table 2.12 and Figure 2.20) includes only that due to persistent linear contrails. Radiative forcing estimates for AIC made using cirrus trend data necessarily cannot distinguish between the components of aviation cloudiness, namely persistent linear contrails, spreading contrails and other aviation aerosol effects. Some aviation effects might be more appropriately considered feedback processes rather than an RF (see Sections 2.2 and 2.4.5). However, the low understanding of the processes involved and the lack of quantitative approaches preclude reliably making the forcing/feedback distinction for all aviation effects in this assessment.

Two issues related to the climate response of aviation cloudiness are worth noting here. First, Minnis et al. (2004, 2005) used their RF estimate for total AIC over the USA in an empirical model, and concluded that the surface temperature response for the period 1973 to 1994 could be as large as the observed surface warming over the USA (around 0.3°C per decade). In response to the Minnis et al. conclusion, contrail RF was examined in two global climate modelling studies (Hansen et al., 2005; Ponater et al., 2005). Both studies concluded that the surface temperature response calculated by Minnis et al. (2004) is too large by one to two orders of magnitude. For the Minnis et al. result to be correct, the climate efficacy or climate sensitivity of contrail RF would need to be much greater than that of other larger RF terms, (e.g., CO2). Instead, contrail RF is found to have a smaller efficacy than an equivalent CO2 RF (Hansen et al., 2005; Ponater et al., 2005) (see Section 2.8.5.7), which is consistent with the general ineffectiveness of high clouds in influencing diurnal surface temperatures (Hansen et al., 1995, 2005). Several substantive explanations for the incorrectness of the enhanced response found in the Minnis et al. study have been presented (Hansen et al., 2005; Ponater et al., 2005; Shine, 2005).

The second issue is that the absence of AIC has been proposed as the cause of the increased diurnal temperature range (DTR) found in surface observations made during the short period when all USA air traffic was grounded starting on 11 September 2001 (Travis et al., 2002, 2004). The Travis et al. studies show that during this period: (i) DTR was enhanced across the conterminous USA, with increases in the maximum temperatures that were not matched by increases of similar magnitude in the minimum temperatures, and (ii) the largest DTR changes corresponded to regions with the greatest contrail cover. The Travis et al. conclusions are weak because they are based on a correlation rather than a quantitative model and rely (necessarily) on very limited data (Schumann, 2005). Unusually clear weather across the USA during the shutdown period also has been proposed to account for the observed DTR changes (Kalkstein and Balling, 2004). Thus, more evidence and a quantitative physical model are needed before the validity of the proposed relationship between regional contrail cover and DTR can be considered further.



2.6.4 Aviation Aerosols

Global aviation operations emit aerosols and aerosol precursors into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (IPCC, 1999; Hendricks et al., 2004). As a result, aerosol number and/or mass are enhanced above background values in these regions. Aviation-induced cloudiness includes the possible influence of aviation aerosol on cirrus cloudiness amounts. The most important aerosols are those composed of sulphate and BC (soot). Sulphate aerosols arise from the emissions of fuel sulphur and BC aerosol results from incomplete combustion of aviation fuel. Aviation operations cause enhancements of sulphate and BC in the background atmosphere (IPCC, 1999; Hendricks et al., 2004). An important concern is that aviation aerosol can act as nuclei in ice cloud formation, thereby altering the microphysical properties of clouds (Jensen and Toon, 1997; Kärcher, 1999; Lohmann et al., 2004) and perhaps cloud cover. A modelling study by Hendricks et al. (2005) showed the potential for significant cirrus modifications by aviation caused by increased numbers of BC particles. The modifications would occur in flight corridors as well as in regions far away from flight corridors because of aerosol transport. In the study, aviation aerosols either increase or decrease ice nuclei in background cirrus clouds, depending on assumptions about the cloud formation process. Results from a cloud chamber experiment showed that a sulphate coating on soot particles reduced their effectiveness as ice nuclei (Möhler et al., 2005). Changes in ice nuclei number or nucleation properties of aerosols can alter the radiative properties of cirrus clouds and, hence, their radiative impact on the climate system, similar to the aerosol-cloud interactions discussed in Sections 2.4.1, 2.4.5 and 7.5. No estimates are yet available for the global or regional RF changes caused by the effect of aviation aerosol on background cloudiness, although some of the RF from AIC, determined by correlation studies (see Section 2.6.3), may be associated with these aerosol effects.
 

Avro

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I was going to post that weeks ago but I didn't think there was a point.

Can't teach old dogs anything.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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The IPCC dismisses it completely? Petros, it becomes clear as time passes that you don't know what the IPCC actually says, you just assume that they dismiss something, or that they ignore something else. It's pretty easy to just google "IPCC contrail" and you get a link to Working Group 1, which is to say the group working on the physical science, not the mitigation, adaptations, or policy work:

2.6 Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cloudiness

The IPCC separately evaluated the RF from subsonic and supersonic aircraft operations in the Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (IPCC, 1999), hereinafter designated as IPCC-1999. Like many other sectors, subsonic aircraft operations around the globe contribute directly and indirectly to the RF of climate change. This section only assesses the aspects that are unique to the aviation sector, namely the formation of persistent condensation trails (contrails), their impact on cirrus cloudiness, and the effects of aviation aerosols. Persistent contrail formation and induced cloudiness are indirect effects from aircraft operations because they depend on variable humidity and temperature conditions along aircraft flight tracks. Thus, future changes in atmospheric humidity and temperature distributions in the upper troposphere will have consequences for aviation-induced cloudiness. Also noted here is the potential role of aviation aerosols in altering the properties of clouds that form later in air containing aircraft emissions.

2.6.2 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Persistent Line-Shaped Contrails

Aircraft produce persistent contrails in the upper troposphere in ice-supersaturated air masses (IPCC, 1999). Contrails are thin cirrus clouds, which reflect solar radiation and trap outgoing longwave radiation. The latter effect is expected to dominate for thin cirrus (Hartmann et al., 1992; Meerkötter et al., 1999), thereby resulting in a net positive RF value for contrails. Persistent contrail cover has been calculated globally from meteorological data (e.g., Sausen et al., 1998) or by using a modified cirrus cloud parametrization in a GCM (Ponater et al., 2002). Contrail cover calculations are uncertain because the extent of supersaturated regions in the atmosphere is poorly known. The associated contrail RF follows from determining an optical depth for the computed contrail cover. The global RF values for contrail and induced cloudiness are assumed to vary linearly with distances flown by the global fleet if flight ambient conditions remain unchanged. The current best estimate for the RF of persistent linear contrails for aircraft operations in 2000 is +0.010 W m–2 (Table 2.9; Sausen et al., 2005). The value is based on independent estimates derived from Myhre and Stordal (2001b) and Marquart et al. (2003) that were updated for increased aircraft traffic in Sausen et al. (2005) to give RF estimates of +0.015 W m–2 and +0.006 W m–2, respectively. The uncertainty range is conservatively estimated to be a factor of three. The +0.010 W m–2 value is also considered to be the best estimate for 2005 because of the slow overall growth in aviation fuel use in the 2000 to 2005 period. The decrease in the best estimate from the TAR by a factor of two results from reassessments of persistent contrail cover and lower optical depth estimates (Marquart and Mayer, 2002; Meyer et al., 2002; Ponater et al., 2002; Marquart et al., 2003). The new estimates include diurnal changes in the solar RF, which decreases the net RF for a given contrail cover by about 20% (Myhre and Stordal, 2001b). The level of scientific understanding of contrail RF is considered low, since important uncertainties remain in the determination of global values (Section 2.9, Table 2.11). For example, unexplained regional differences are found in contrail optical depths between Europe and the USA that have not been fully accounted for in model calculations (Meyer et al., 2002; Ponater et al., 2002; Palikonda et al., 2005).

Table 2.9. Radiative forcing terms for contrail and cirrus effects caused by global subsonic aircraft operations.

Radiative forcing (W m–2) 1992 IPCC 2000 IPCC 2000 Sausen et al.
CO2 0.018 0.025 0.025

Persistent linear contrails 0.020 0.034 0.010 (0.006 to 0.015)

Aviation-induced cloudiness
without persistent contrails 0 to 0.040 n.a.

Aviation-induced cloudiness
with persistent contrails 0.030(0.010 to 0.080)

2.6.3 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Aviation- Induced Cloudiness


Individual persistent contrails are routinely observed to shear and spread, covering large additional areas with cirrus cloud (Minnis et al., 1998). Aviation aerosol could also lead to changes in cirrus cloud (see Section 2.6.4). Aviation-induced cloudiness (AIC) is defined to be the sumx of all changes in cloudiness associated with aviation operations. Thus, an AIC estimate includes persistent contrail cover. Because spreading contrails lose their characteristic linear shape, a component of AIC is indistinguishable from background cirrus. This basic ambiguity, which prevented the formulation of a best estimate of AIC amounts and the associated RF in IPCC-1999, still exists for this assessment. Estimates of the ratio of induced cloudiness cover to that of persistent linear contrails range from 1.8 to 10 (Minnis et al., 2004; Mannstein and Schumann, 2005[10]), indicating the uncertainty in estimating AIC amounts. Initial attempts to quantify AIC used trend differences in cirrus cloudiness between regions of high and low aviation fuel consumption (Boucher, 1999). Since IPCC-1999, two studies have also found significant positive trends in cirrus cloudiness in some regions of high air traffic and found lower to negative trends outside air traffic regions (Zerefos et al., 2003; Stordal et al., 2005). Using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) database, these studies derived cirrus cover trends for Europe of 1 to 2% per decade over the last one to two decades. A study with the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) provides further support for these trends (Stubenrauch and Schumann, 2005). However, cirrus trends that occurred due to natural variability, climate change or other anthropogenic effects could not be accounted for in these studies. Cirrus trends over the USA (but not over Europe) were found to be consistent with changes in contrail cover and frequency (Minnis et al., 2004). Thus, significant uncertainty remains in attributing observed cirrus trends to aviation.

Regional cirrus trends were used as a basis to compute a global mean RF value for AIC in 2000 of +0.030 W m–2 with a range of +0.01 to +0.08 W m–2 (Stordal et al., 2005). This value is not considered a best estimate because of the uncertainty in the optical properties of AIC and in the assumptions used to derive AIC cover. However, this value is in good agreement with the upper limit estimate for AIC RF in 1992 of +0.026 W m–2 derived from surface and satellite cloudiness observations (Minnis et al., 2004). A value of +0.03 W m–2 is close to the upper-limit estimate of +0.04 W m–2 derived for non-contrail cloudiness in IPCC-1999. Without an AIC best estimate, the best estimate of the total RF value for aviation-induced cloudiness (Section 2.9.2, Table 2.12 and Figure 2.20) includes only that due to persistent linear contrails. Radiative forcing estimates for AIC made using cirrus trend data necessarily cannot distinguish between the components of aviation cloudiness, namely persistent linear contrails, spreading contrails and other aviation aerosol effects. Some aviation effects might be more appropriately considered feedback processes rather than an RF (see Sections 2.2 and 2.4.5). However, the low understanding of the processes involved and the lack of quantitative approaches preclude reliably making the forcing/feedback distinction for all aviation effects in this assessment.

Two issues related to the climate response of aviation cloudiness are worth noting here. First, Minnis et al. (2004, 2005) used their RF estimate for total AIC over the USA in an empirical model, and concluded that the surface temperature response for the period 1973 to 1994 could be as large as the observed surface warming over the USA (around 0.3°C per decade). In response to the Minnis et al. conclusion, contrail RF was examined in two global climate modelling studies (Hansen et al., 2005; Ponater et al., 2005). Both studies concluded that the surface temperature response calculated by Minnis et al. (2004) is too large by one to two orders of magnitude. For the Minnis et al. result to be correct, the climate efficacy or climate sensitivity of contrail RF would need to be much greater than that of other larger RF terms, (e.g., CO2). Instead, contrail RF is found to have a smaller efficacy than an equivalent CO2 RF (Hansen et al., 2005; Ponater et al., 2005) (see Section 2.8.5.7), which is consistent with the general ineffectiveness of high clouds in influencing diurnal surface temperatures (Hansen et al., 1995, 2005). Several substantive explanations for the incorrectness of the enhanced response found in the Minnis et al. study have been presented (Hansen et al., 2005; Ponater et al., 2005; Shine, 2005).

The second issue is that the absence of AIC has been proposed as the cause of the increased diurnal temperature range (DTR) found in surface observations made during the short period when all USA air traffic was grounded starting on 11 September 2001 (Travis et al., 2002, 2004). The Travis et al. studies show that during this period: (i) DTR was enhanced across the conterminous USA, with increases in the maximum temperatures that were not matched by increases of similar magnitude in the minimum temperatures, and (ii) the largest DTR changes corresponded to regions with the greatest contrail cover. The Travis et al. conclusions are weak because they are based on a correlation rather than a quantitative model and rely (necessarily) on very limited data (Schumann, 2005). Unusually clear weather across the USA during the shutdown period also has been proposed to account for the observed DTR changes (Kalkstein and Balling, 2004). Thus, more evidence and a quantitative physical model are needed before the validity of the proposed relationship between regional contrail cover and DTR can be considered further.



2.6.4 Aviation Aerosols

Global aviation operations emit aerosols and aerosol precursors into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (IPCC, 1999; Hendricks et al., 2004). As a result, aerosol number and/or mass are enhanced above background values in these regions. Aviation-induced cloudiness includes the possible influence of aviation aerosol on cirrus cloudiness amounts. The most important aerosols are those composed of sulphate and BC (soot). Sulphate aerosols arise from the emissions of fuel sulphur and BC aerosol results from incomplete combustion of aviation fuel. Aviation operations cause enhancements of sulphate and BC in the background atmosphere (IPCC, 1999; Hendricks et al., 2004). An important concern is that aviation aerosol can act as nuclei in ice cloud formation, thereby altering the microphysical properties of clouds (Jensen and Toon, 1997; Kärcher, 1999; Lohmann et al., 2004) and perhaps cloud cover. A modelling study by Hendricks et al. (2005) showed the potential for significant cirrus modifications by aviation caused by increased numbers of BC particles. The modifications would occur in flight corridors as well as in regions far away from flight corridors because of aerosol transport. In the study, aviation aerosols either increase or decrease ice nuclei in background cirrus clouds, depending on assumptions about the cloud formation process. Results from a cloud chamber experiment showed that a sulphate coating on soot particles reduced their effectiveness as ice nuclei (Möhler et al., 2005). Changes in ice nuclei number or nucleation properties of aerosols can alter the radiative properties of cirrus clouds and, hence, their radiative impact on the climate system, similar to the aerosol-cloud interactions discussed in Sections 2.4.1, 2.4.5 and 7.5. No estimates are yet available for the global or regional RF changes caused by the effect of aviation aerosol on background cloudiness, although some of the RF from AIC, determined by correlation studies (see Section 2.6.3), may be associated with these aerosol effects.
That doesn't jive with what NOAA and NASA scientists say. Why not?

Just like the title says "how the GW myth is perpetuated":





Dogs? You aren't stabbing ol Peabody in the back are you Sherman?


Tell me what you SEE over Florida and Georgia. Is that what CO2 looks like?


Did you even read what you posted? I did. I found this:

Without an AIC best estimate, the best estimate of the total RF value for aviation-induced cloudiness (Section 2.9.2, Table 2.12 and Figure 2.20) includes only that due to persistent linear contrails. Radiative forcing estimates for AIC made using cirrus trend data necessarily cannot distinguish between the components of aviation cloudiness, namely persistent linear contrails, spreading contrails and other aviation aerosol effects. Some aviation effects might be more appropriately considered feedback processes rather than an RF (see Sections 2.2 and 2.4.5). However, the low understanding of the processes involved and the lack of quantitative approaches preclude reliably making the forcing/feedback distinction for all aviation effects in this assessment.


Does this sound like

a) we've got it cased

or

b) we don't have a clue and never bothered to include new far more effcient aircraft and turbo fan technology put in place after 1992 which have far better lift with far more efficient burning engines with far more thrust flying at higher,colder altitudes with a new better burning fuels?

Those types of advancements improve what when it comes to flight? Compression/decompression of gasses?Does that create vapour? Is water a sign of really good combustion of a hydrocarbon fuel?

Looks good to me. No problems here, the graphs provided by an unelected, impartial panel of beaurocrats says so.

 
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mentalfloss

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Jun 28, 2010
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Hi Petros.

Just want to interject here and peacefully enter this discussion on contrails. I'm not sure I follow what you're saying. Do you mean to say that man-made contrails are not having affect on global warming or that their effect is overstated by the IPCC?
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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They are and are understated. IPCC says no but NASA says this in a press release: NASA - Clouds Caused By Aircraft Exhaust May Warm The U.S. Climate

Gretchen Cook-Anderson
Headquarters, Washington
(Phone: 202/358-0836)

Chris Rink/Julia Cole
Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va.
(Phone: 757/864-6786/4052)


April 27, 2004

RELEASE : 04-140


Clouds Caused By Aircraft Exhaust May Warm The U.S. Climate


NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994.

"This result shows the increased cirrus coverage, attributable to air traffic, could account for nearly all of the warming observed over the United States for nearly 20 years starting in 1975, but it is important to acknowledge contrails would add to and not replace any greenhouse gas effect," said Patrick Minnis, senior research scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va. The study was published April 15 in the Journal of Climate. "During the same period, warming occurred in many other areas where cirrus coverage decreased or remained steady," he added.

"This study demonstrates that human activity has a visible and significant impact on cloud cover and, therefore, on climate. It indicates that contrails should be included in climate change scenarios," Minnis said.

Minnis determined the observed one percent per decade increase in cirrus cloud cover over the United States is likely due to air traffic-induced contrails. Using published results from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (New York) general circulation model, Minnis and his colleagues estimated contrails and their resulting cirrus clouds would increase surface and lower atmospheric temperatures by 0.36 to 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. Weather service data reveal surface and lower atmospheric temperatures across North America rose by almost 0.5 degree Fahrenheit per decade between 1975 and 1994.

Minnis worked with colleagues Kirk Ayers, Rabi Palinkonda, and Dung Phan from Analytical Services and Materials, Inc., of Hampton, Va. They used 25 years of global surface observations of cirrus clouds, temperature and humidity records from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. They confirmed the cirrus trends with 13 years of satellite data from NASA's International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project.

Both air traffic and cirrus coverage increased during the period of warming despite no changes in the NCEP humidity at jet cruise altitudes over the United States. By contrast, humidity at flight altitudes decreased over other land areas, such as Asia, and was accompanied by less cirrus coverage, except over Western Europe, where air traffic is very heavy.

Cirrus coverage also rose in the North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. The trends in cirrus cover and warming over the United States were greatest during winter and spring, the same seasons when contrails are most frequent. These results, along with findings from earlier studies, led to the conclusion that contrails caused the increase in cirrus clouds.

"This study indicates that contrails already have substantial regional effects where air traffic is heavy, such as over the United States. As air travel continues growing in other areas, the impact could become globally significant," Minnis said.

Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air and determines how long contrails remain in the atmosphere. Contrails that persist for an extended period of time are most likely to impact the climate.

Contrails form high in the atmosphere when the mixture of water vapor in the aircraft exhaust and the air condenses and freezes. Persisting contrails can spread into extensive cirrus clouds that tend to warm the Earth, because they reflect less sunlight than the amount of heat they trap. The balance between Earth's incoming sunlight and outgoing heat drives climate change.

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded this research. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards using the unique vantage point of space.

"This study indicates that contrails already have substantial regional effects where air traffic is heavy, such as over the United States. As air travel continues growing in other areas, the impact could become globally significant," Minnis said.

NASA's contrail "education site" : Contrail Education

Have fun.http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/GLOBE/resources/articles/sci_papers.html
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Okay. But contrails is still an anthropogenic cause. So I'm still confused as to what your point is??
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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It sure is, so do we tax the snot out of contrails instead of carbon then? Are contrails cheaply controllable?

By the looks of things airplanes kill glaciers, polar bears and African kids.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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It sure is, so do we tax the snot out of contrails instead of carbon then?

Well it depends on the degree with which condensation affects the environment vs. carbon emissions. I don't think we really know enough yet to determine the exact extent of this type of forcing yet, but I personally think it would still be a distant second to carbon emissions. That isn't to say that it wouldn't be a significant cause though.
 

ironsides

Executive Branch Member
Feb 13, 2009
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Why the fear of contrails, it is only water vapor. It would take thousands of aircraft flying in formation to possibly effect temperature, there are other more major things effecting us.
They are harmless.
 
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mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Here is a graph comparison of types of aviation forcing and their degree of importance:
--
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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They know more about contrails than cirrus clouds?

What does this graphic say?


Or this one:





Why the fear of contrails, it is only water vapor. It would take thousands of aircraft flying in formation to possibly effect temperature, there are other more major things effecting us.
They are harmless.
Like what? Vapour you don't see? Vapour isn't a "green house driver"?
 

TenPenny

Hall of Fame Member
Jun 9, 2004
17,467
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Location, Location
I heard a very good explanation.

Early this morning, I happened to be listening to WOR radio out of NYC (comes in good here at night). There was a caller to the 'Coast to Coast' show, who explained that the Catholic church used to be right, that all left handed people were agents of the devil, and this explained all kinds of things, including Al Gore and global warming.
 

YukonJack

Time Out
Dec 26, 2008
7,026
73
48
Winnipeg
Just curious: Should anyone who listens to loony programs like "Coast To Coast" in the middle of the night, on radio, be given any credibility when they try to demean prime time TV programs on the most successful TV network?