Elections in USA.

[ironsides]

The party affiliation does not mean a whole lot in USA; the district is a solidly conservative district. Social conservatism rules the day. Republicans had high hopes of winning it; they had invested lot of money and lot of resources into the election. It was a bitter disappointment for them not to win it.

Sure Paul is a Libertarian, he has said so himself (or at least he claims to be a Libertarian, some conservatives claim to be Libertarian rather than conservative, I suppose it sounds more respectable). However, now he is the Republican candidate and Republicans are stuck with all the baggage he carries.

And a senate election receives much more coverage than a house election (his father is a House member).

That is an internal matter for the Democratic Party, I doubt that the two candidates are that much different.

Elected Senate in USA is of relatively recent origin, initally Senators used to be elected by state legislatures.

I would not get to technical when you try to explain U.S. politics, much better to stay with generalities. I personally would not even attempt to understand Canadian or British politics, just make comments on end results. There is a reason why we tried to disassociate ourselves with your political structure, and we even had a civil war to refine ourselves even more. I am thankful the U.S. does not have a unelected second chamber. The U.S. 17th Amendment 4/8/1913 changed when Senators were elected by state legislatures and established direct election of United States Senators bypopular vote.

The Old Medic obviously knows what he is talking about in this instance. Another very good statement by him.

 

[Icarus27k]

These people don't realize the the district where Representative Murtha had been the Congressman enjoys a more than 2-1 registration advantage for the Democrats. That makes it almost impossible for a Republican to win, and the Republicans knew that.

This sounds like an excuse about why the Republican candidate lost fair and square. Even this November, Republican House candidates will be competing in all kinds of districts with all kinds voter registration demographics.

Pennsylvania's 12th district is held up as the kind of district that Republicans will have to do well in if they even have a chance of retaking the House of Representatives in November.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

This sounds like an excuse about why the Republican candidate lost fair and square. Even this November, Republican House candidates will be competing in all kinds of districts with all kinds voter registration demographics.

Pennsylvania's 12th district is held up as the kind of district that Republicans will have to do well in if they even have a chance of retaking the House of Representatives in November.

You took the words right out of my mouth, Icarus. The 12th district (a socially conservative district) is precisely the kind of district Republicans must win if they are going to do well in November.

And Republicans did have high hopes of winning it, now that the incumbent was gone (Murtha was very popular in his district, last time he won by double digits, in spite of all the Republican attempts to defeat him). I am not sure exactly why Republicans lost, I haven't been following the campaign. But this can't be good news for Republicans.

 

[Icarus27k]

Including Pennsylvania's 12th district, there have been 7 special elections to the US House (in order to fill vacancies) this Congress. All 7 have been won by Democrats.

Some of these 7 districts are Democratic strongholds, and therefore by all accounts, the Dem should've won. But other districts are more diverse, and the Repubs actually had a shot at winning, but they didn't.


I need to point out though that the Dems' special election winning streak is about to come to an end because Hawaii's 1st district is having a mail-in election that ends today. The main candidates are two Democrats and one Republican, and most observers believe the Dems will split the vote and allow the Repub to win.

If a Dem somehow wins Hawaii-1, Georgia's 9th district is having a special election in the coming weeks. No Dem will win Georgia-9 because only Repubs made it to the runoff that is scheduled.


There are two more House districts that currently have vacancies. New York has one after Dem Eric Massa resigned a few months ago, but it's going to remain vacant until November. And Indiana has a vacant seat about Repub Mike Souder resigned this week. I don't know what's going to happen with that seat, if they're going to hold a special or just wait until November.

 

[Icarus27k]

Speaking of US midterm elections, I just thought of a good way to compare Democratic leadership to Republican leadership.

The 2006 Democratic takeover of Congress is often compared to the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress (aka the Republican revolution). By extension, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (2007-present) is often compared to House Speaker Newt Gingrich (1995-98 ).

After the 94 takeover, Gingrich made it as Speaker almost four years, until he was forced to resign after Republican losses during the 1998 midterms. We're coming up on that 4-year point for Pelosi, and I'm waiting to see if she beats Gingrich. By most accounts, she will. If Dems retain control of the House, she's going to stay as Speaker.


Which is going to last longer: the 94 Republican revolution or the 06 Democratic takeover?

Including Pennsylvania's 12th district, there have been 7 special elections to the US House (in order to fill vacancies) this Congress. All 7 have been won by Democrats.

Some of these 7 districts are Democratic strongholds, and therefore by all accounts, the Dem should've won. But other districts are more diverse, and the Repubs actually had a shot at winning, but they didn't.


I need to point out though that the Dems' special election winning streak is about to come to an end because Hawaii's 1st district is having a mail-in election that ends today. The main candidates are two Democrats and one Republican, and most observers believe the Dems will split the vote and allow the Repub to win.

As expected, Republican Charles Djou wins the Hawaii special election.

Source:The Fix - Charles Djou, Republicans capture Hawaii House seat


Possible storyline: Dems are now 7-1 in special House election wins in the 111th Congress.

Another possible storyline: A Republican wins a historically Democratic district. And not just any district: the district that Obama grew up in.





Liberal Democrats like myself are also happy with this result. Why? Because the two Dems that split the vote between them was a liberal Dem and a centrist Blue Dog Dem. Most observers believe this seat will switch back into Democratic hands in the November election, and a liberal Dem has stopped a Blue Dog from winning a seat that, if he had won, he would've held onto forever.

Now, the liberal Dem has a real chance of being THE Dem that takes the seat back in the November election.

 

[ironsides]

Election 2010: Arizona Governor
Arizona Governor: Brewer 52%, Goddard 39%

Friday, May 21, 2010
javascript:void(0)

http://adserver.adtechus.com/?adlin...d=1;itime=617053233;key=23184+key2+key3+key4;


After championing her state’s new immigration law in the face of criticism from President Obama and others, incumbent Arizona Governor Jan Brewer for the first time now attracts more than 50% support in her bid for reelection against likely Democratic candidate Terry Goddard.

Election 2010: Arizona Governor - Rasmussen Reports

 

[JLM]

If you study both Sir Porter's and Yukon Jack's posts you get balanced "reporting". LOL

 

[ironsides]

HONOLULU – A Honolulu city councilman has defeated two Democrats to give Republicans a midterm election victory in the U.S. congressional district where President Barack Obama grew up.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100523/ap_on_el_ho/us_hawaii_congress

Which by the way has been a typically Liberal Democratic district.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

HONOLULU – A Honolulu city councilman has defeated two Democrats to give Republicans a midterm election victory in the U.S. congressional district where President Barack Obama grew up.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100523/ap_on_el_ho/us_hawaii_congress

Which by the way has been a typically Liberal Democratic district.

That was because of Democratic infighting, there were two Democratic candidates. Together they got way more votes than the Republican (it was something like 60:40)..

Anyway, there will be election again in a few month time, in November. I assume at that time there will be only one Democratic candidate and he will win easily, it is a liberal district.

In fact, I have read that Democratic Party gave up on the race a while ago and stopped spending money in support of Democratic candidates. Presumably they are keeping the powder dry for November.

 

[EagleSmack]

Another totally insignificant election result is Scott Brown, a Republican, who took the Senate seat held (or more correctly, bought) by the gratefully, but far too late departed Democratic beached whale.

Scott Brown's opponent was also fully and unconditionally supported by The Annointed One.

Yes indeed. The President made an emergency flight to Massachusetts to help save the abomination and nasty campaign of Martha (or Marcia if you asked T. Kennedy's drunken drug addicted son) Coakley. Massachusetts listened and cheered and then promptly sent Republican Scott Brown to Washington.

That was because of Democratic infighting, there were two Democratic candidates. Together they got way more votes than the Republican (it was something like 60:40)..

Anyway, there will be election again in a few month time, in November. I assume at that time there will be only one Democratic candidate and he will win easily, it is a liberal district.

In fact, I have read that Democratic Party gave up on the race a while ago and stopped spending money in support of Democratic candidates. Presumably they are keeping the powder dry for November.

Sounds like that NY election last year that you were boasting about.

How would you like to spin it today Joey? :lol:

 

[ironsides]

That was because of Democratic infighting, there were two Democratic candidates. Together they got way more votes than the Republican (it was something like 60:40)..

Anyway, there will be election again in a few month time, in November. I assume at that time there will be only one Democratic candidate and he will win easily, it is a liberal district.

In fact, I have read that Democratic Party gave up on the race a while ago and stopped spending money in support of Democratic candidates. Presumably they are keeping the powder dry for November.

I don't expect it to last, but who knows. I don't think the National Democratic party cared what happened in Hawaii this time, but it is another Republican vote till November.

By the way, any party or individual who gives up doesn't deserve the win no matter how big or small.

 

[Icarus27k]

Perhaps the Republican, Charles Djou, has real aspirations of staying in past November and perhaps the liberal Democrat, Colleen Hannabusa, had real aspirations of winning this special election. But the last few months, Hannabusa's goal changed from winning the special election to keeping the other Democrat, Ed Case, out of the seat.

 

[Curiosity]

Can anyone explain why in these primaries there are often two Democrats opposing each other and one Republican?

Statistically speaking - how can they expect a successful run in the General Election if they split the party votes?

 

[Bar Sinister]

Can anyone explain why in these primaries there are often two Democrats opposing each other and one Republican?

Statistically speaking - how can they expect a successful run in the General Election if they split the party votes?

So far as I know primaries are the way the Republicans and Democrats select candidates for the next election. Such being the case there should be at least two candidates from each party unless someone is running unopposed.

 

[ironsides]

Can anyone explain why in these primaries there are often two Democrats opposing each other and one Republican?

Statistically speaking - how can they expect a successful run in the General Election if they split the party votes?

Anybody can collect enough votes to run in a primary if they want, One Democrat thinks they can beat the other one against the Republican and they both lose. Not smart, but what can you expect from politicians.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Yes indeed. The President made an emergency flight to Massachusetts to help save the abomination and nasty campaign of Martha (or Marcia if you asked T. Kennedy's drunken drug addicted son) Coakley. Massachusetts listened and cheered and then promptly sent Republican Scott Brown to Washington.



Sounds like that NY election last year that you were boasting about.

How would you like to spin it today Joey? :lol:

Quite so, this is the mirror image of the New York election. The difference is that there is a continuing feud between, the Tea Party and Republican Party what happened in New York is happening elsewhere (e.g. in Florida). What happened in Hawaii is a one off deal.

I don't expect it to last, but who knows. I don't think the National Democratic party cared what happened in Hawaii this time, but it is another Republican vote till November.

By the way, any party or individual who gives up doesn't deserve the win no matter how big or small.

I think when it became clear that neither of the Democrats was going to win, the Democratic Party decided not to waste its money but to keep it for November.

And you are right, who knows what will happen in November. I certainly don't have a crystal ball, like conservatives do (many of them are convinced that Republicans are going to win the control of Senate and House in November and then repeal all the legislation democrats have passed in this session, including health care reform and Wall Street reform).

However, considering the fact that it is a heavily liberal, heavily Democratic district, chances are very high that a Democrat will be elected there in November.

Can anyone explain why in these primaries there are often two Democrats opposing each other and one Republican?

Statistically speaking - how can they expect a successful run in the General Election if they split the party votes?

We are not talking of a primary in Hawaii, Curiosity. This was election for the House seat, it had two Democrats and one Republican and Republican won. The seat changed hands from Democrat to Republican (same as the New York seat changed hands form Republican to Democrat).