Canada's Federal Election Polls

[damngrumpy]

Personally, I have never considered elections to be about democracy. Elections are for
civilized people who want to engage in a civil war without guns.
I did go out and contact some of the old broadcasters to get their take on this election.
Many are still in the game if information, and I spoke with some old friends and foes
who used to be directly engaged in election campaigns like I did. We discussed the polls
and the direction of the election so far and to date we know some things for sure and the
rest is still a mystery. Jack will not be the Prime Minister but he has a chance to be king
maker. We know the number of undecideds is considerable which means the poll
numbers do not mean much so far and the election will tighten up in the next ten days.
All the talk and hot air is just that, no one has a lock on this thing at all, and the surprising
thing is the latest Iggy ads are good, he looks relaxed and personable, I didn't think that was
possible. Layton and the New Democrats have come up with some campaign ads that
actually interest people. The Greens are going to spend all their campaign money on one
candidate their leader, and I don't think she will win it either.
What about the Tories? They are in the bubble, and they won't be able to stay there, as the
campaign is going to force change on them. Once they are outside the bubble, they are
vulnerable because they were content to maintain a defencive campaign from the start and
its hard to go to offence. The problem is they don't have anything new to go on offence with.
Those He didn't come back for you, is stale and the times have changed. People are starting
to say so what about a cloak and dagger, coalition. It is all wearing thin and the fact the
deficit is so high leaves them with little room to argue the economy under serious scrutiny.
Ten days before the election we will see the roller coaster ride heading in a particular direction.

 

[JLM]

Personally, I have never considered elections to be about democracy. Elections are for
civilized people who want to engage in a civil war without guns.
I did go out and contact some of the old broadcasters to get their take on this election.
Many are still in the game if information, and I spoke with some old friends and foes
who used to be directly engaged in election campaigns like I did. We discussed the polls
and the direction of the election so far and to date we know some things for sure and the
rest is still a mystery. Jack will not be the Prime Minister but he has a chance to be king
maker. We know the number of undecideds is considerable which means the poll
numbers do not mean much so far and the election will tighten up in the next ten days.
All the talk and hot air is just that, no one has a lock on this thing at all, and the surprising
thing is the latest Iggy ads are good, he looks relaxed and personable, I didn't think that was
possible. Layton and the New Democrats have come up with some campaign ads that
actually interest people. The Greens are going to spend all their campaign money on one
candidate their leader, and I don't think she will win it either.
What about the Tories? They are in the bubble, and they won't be able to stay there, as the
campaign is going to force change on them. Once they are outside the bubble, they are
vulnerable because they were content to maintain a defencive campaign from the start and
its hard to go to offence. The problem is they don't have anything new to go on offence with.
Those He didn't come back for you, is stale and the times have changed. People are starting
to say so what about a cloak and dagger, coalition. It is all wearing thin and the fact the
deficit is so high leaves them with little room to argue the economy under serious scrutiny.
Ten days before the election we will see the roller coaster ride heading in a particular direction.

I think at the end of the day the biggest news about this election will be that $300 million of our dollars have been squandered on a bunch of idiots. :lol:

 

[damngrumpy]

JLM at the end of the day the masses will have been caught up in the emotion of
the moment. When they sober up the week after the election, the realization will set
in and then the howling will start. Remember the angry people of tomorrow are today
making contributions to the political party of their choice.
Reason, facts, and ideas don't count for much during an election, everyone is
contributing to the effort bragging rights. I hope you don't think I am cynical about this.

 

[mentalfloss]

I think at the end of the day the biggest news about this election will be that $300 million of our dollars have been squandered on a bunch of idiots. :lol:

$300 million / 20 million = $15.00 per person

That wallet crushing $15 Election.

weeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[GreenFish66]

I guess that would depend largely on weather or not it is your party that is governing. Just because a politician isn't listening to you does not mean he/she isn't listening to someone.

...I'm sorry Tax Slave, ...What's that you say,?Can you Repeat that?,.I wasn't listen.,,?.(.I mean, my eye's were closed..?)

 

[petros]

Was it a 10 foot poll?

 

[Liberalman]

At the beginning of the election Canadians care
more about health care but after week one of the federal election campaign
economy is on most people’s mind.

Like in the last election Stephen Harper has
to make a major mistake for the Liberals to win.

Conservatives are for business, war machine and crime and Liberals are for the family, jobs and education so
far

 

[JLM]

At the beginning of the election Canadians care
more about health care but after week one of the federal election campaign
economy is on most people’s mind.

Like in the last election Stephen Harper has
to make a major mistake for the Liberals to win.

Conservatives are for business, war machine and crime and Liberals are for the family, jobs and education so
far

Seems to me the Conservative are the ones trying to toughen up on crime and why we are hearing the uproar at the suggestion of building more prisons (bunkers I hope) . I think Iggy's pile of sh*t has passed your eyeballs, Liberalman. :smile:

 

[Trex]

As I posted on another thread threehundredeight.com has daily unbiased analysis of all polling in Canada on a riding by riding basis.
The latest Nik Nanos polling is obviously included and referenced.
As of this morning the Cons have 154 seats which is an 11 seat gain since the writ was dropped.
Thats now a majority considering three empty seats and two independents (one of whom is a Con).

Single polls are a snapshot and tend to be innaccurate but all the polls taken together over time will show an accurate trend.
The trend is a Con majority.

If you are opposed to a future Conservative government the next chance at changing voter intentions will either be a serious screwup by Harper or the upcoming debates.

ThreeHundredEight.com
Trex

 

[Avro]

I think at the end of the day the biggest news about this election will be that $300 million of our dollars have been squandered on a bunch of idiots. :lol:

I say that eveytime I see a public employee.

 

[JLM]

I say that eveytime I see a public employee.

I'm not sure that when an idiot observes an "idiot" the observation is valid.

 

[Avro]

I'm not sure that when an idiot observes an "idiot" the observation is valid.

Your observation was valid.

 

[DaSleeper]

I say that eveytime I see a public employee.

And that from a member of C.U.P.E.:roll:

Well I have been a full member of CUPE for over a decade and have never recieved one phone call or letter mail from them.....not once.

 

[JLM]

And that from a member of C.U.P.E.:roll:

Equals..........................Hypocrite.

 

[Liberalman]

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 3rd (n=1,200; committed voters
only n=986).

Canada (n=990 committed voters)
Conservative 39.8%
(-2.5)
Liberal 30.2% (+1.8
NDP 16.5% (+0.1)
Bloc Quebecois 8.3%
(+0.3)
Green 4.0% (+0.2)
Undecided 17.8% (NC)

 

[Liberalman]

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 4th (n=1,204; committed voters
only n=990).

Canada (n=981 committed voters)
Conservative 39.7%
(-0.1)
Liberal 29.9% (-0.3)
NDP 17.4% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.3%
(NC)
Green 3.8% (-0.2)
Undecided 18.3% (+0.5)

 

[CDNBear]

Oh oh, the Liberals are slipping!!

 

[Liberalman]

April 5th

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 5th (n=1,202; committed voters
only n=981).

Canada (n=989 committed voters)
Conservative 39.6%
(-0.1)
Liberal 30.4% (+0.5)
NDP 17.2% (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois 8.3%
(NC)
Green 3.2% (-0.6)
Undecided 17.7% (-0.6)

 

[Omicron]

Elections are part of democracy and freedom and
freedom costs in money and lives, so enjoy the experience because you are one
of the Canadians paying for it.

Canada's having elections, but it is NOT democratic.

IF it was, Reformocon would get about 125 seats, Liberal about 93, NDP about 49, BQ about 29, and Green about 13.

But instead, seats are going to be distributed according to an anachronistic "first-past-the-post" system that could give a party representing a minority the majority of seats.

That might not be so bad, were it not for the fact that Canada is NOT free - not in the American sense - because as it stands, a PM has far more autocratic, dictatorial power than any US President could dream of.

The only reason Canada behaved itself was because it had a big brother to the south to live up to, but now that Washington's been taken over by Wall Street financiers (don't kid yourself if you think Obama was able to unravel that.. if you think so, watch this:http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/) and Harpo's just the guy to live up to that new standard of corporate rule.

If a PM can get a majority of seats, he has dictatorial powers, and the *only* check is that he can be fired by the Governor General, which not enough Canadians know they can ask her to do.

In Canada, a minority can achieve dictatorial power over the majority, like how a Sunni minority in Iraq got power over the Shi'ite majority, or like how the Tutsi minority in Rwanda got power over the Hutu majority.

And the only people who think that's cool are exactly the kind of people you'd never want to be ruled by, namely, those who'd say, "Tough, that's how the system works".

Given Canada's historical pattern of evolution versus revolution, the most efficient, shortest line between two-points next-step towards real democracy would be to make two simple changes, both to do with the Senate.

1) Make it so after each election, seats in the Senate get redistributed according to popular vote, and,

2) Make it so the Senate can actually stop bad legislation for good, instead of the way it can only block bad legislation three times before Commons can force it through.

Some will say, "But that amounts to the Senate having a permanent veto. They may not write legislation, but they can gang up and veto it forever if no single party has a majority of seats in the Senate".

Bingo!

The only one's who'll hate that idea are those who get hard or go moist with the idea of holding dictatorial power with a minority.

 

[JLM]

Canada's having elections, but it is NOT democratic.

IF it was, Reformocons would get about 125 seats, Libs about 93, NDP about 49, BQ about 29, and Green about 13.

But instead, seats are going to be distributed according to an anachronistic "first-past-the-post" system that could give a party representing a minority the majority of seats.

That might not be so bad, were it not for the fact that Canada is NOT free - not in the American sense - because as it stands, a PM has far more autocratic, dictatorial power than any US President could dream of.

If a PM can get a majority of seats, he has dictatorial powers, and the *only* check is that he can be fired by the Governor General, which not enough Canadians know they can ask her to do.

In Canada, a minority can achieve dictatorial power over the majority, like how a Sunni minority in Iraq got power over the Shi'ite majority, or like how the Tutsi minority in Rwanda had power over the Hutu majority.

And the only people who think that's cool are exactly the kind of people you'd never want to be ruled by, namely, those who'd say, "Tough, that's how the system works".

Given Canada's historical pattern of evolution versus revolution, the most efficient, shortest line between two-points next-step towards real democracy would be to make two simple changes, both to do with the Senate.

1) Make it so after each election, seats in the Senate get redistributed according to popular vote, and,

2) Make it so the Senate can actually stop bad legislation for good, instead of the way it can only block bad legislation three times before Commons can force it through.

Several years ago there was a referendum on this subject and after many many submissions of pros and cons the conclusion was reached by many, myself inluded, that "first past the post" is indeed the best system, one important reason being the simplicity for voters not to mention a lot less work in tallying the ballots and several others that I can't recall. The bottom line was that other systems were simply not anymore democratic.