Canada's Federal Election Polls

[Liberalman]

Nanos poll as of March 31

Canada (n=983 committed voters)
Conservative 41.3% (+1.9)
Liberal 30.3%
(-1.4)
NDP 16.0% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois 8.5% (-)
Green 3.7% (-0.7)

Undecided 18.1% (-2.4)

 

[Colpy]

Nanos poll as of March 31

Canada (n=983 committed voters)
Conservative 41.3% (+1.9)
Liberal 30.3%
(-1.4)
NDP 16.0% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois 8.5% (-)
Green 3.7% (-0.7)

Undecided 18.1% (-2.4)

Kudos for even posting this Liberalguy..........41.3% is solidly in majority territory.

If it stays this way (and I dearly hope the CPC gains more)

Anyway, there are problems with polls.....for instance, pollsters only reach land lines, which unduly weighs the response towards older people......

In other words, the only poll that counts is the one on May 2.

Although the ones before are fascinating, they mean very little.

 

[Dexter Sinister]

Kudos for even posting this Liberalguy..........41.3% is solidly in majority territory.

True enough, but there's still 18% undecided, so that's really 41.3% of 82%, which is 33% of voters, distinctly in minority territory. I've always thought it's a little disingenuous of pollsters to present poll results that way, giving the percentages for decided voters then tacking on the level of the undecided as an afterthought, if they bother to present it at all. It implicitly suggests that the undecided vote will coalesce on polling day into the same distribution of preferences as the decided vote and that levels of support are higher than they really are.

 

[Liberalman]

The only problem with advance polls is giving a false sense of security.

The above poll shows the Conservatives in majority territory but does this
mean less conservative supporters will go out to vote because they think they
will win?

The advance poll also gets people to take a closer look at the leader to see
if there is agreement in beliefs and policy.

Years back in Ontario the polls showed a Liberal
majority so people assumed that the Liberals would win so they never voted and
on election night the NDP became the new provincial government.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Currently, the Conservatives are something like 12 seats away from a majority,
and the Liberals somewhere in the neighbourhood of about 80 seats from the
same. Anything can happen. Possibility and probability are two different things
though. It'll be a (somewhat) interesting couple of weeks leading up to this next
kick at the can.

 

[SLM]

Canadian elections are just like our winters. It ain't over til it's over.

 

[Mowich]

I tend to hope that our (Conservative) numbers are well.....conservative. I don't like it when our party is ahead in the polls and would rather see them making great gains near the end of the campaign. I just hope that Ig comes out with more 500 billion dollar promises as that will only help the Conservatives.

Colpy is right, the only poll that counts is the one on May 2nd.

 

[GreenFish66]

Whatta Waste of Time and Money..

It's GovernMental Insanity.

Must be some new Big Biz Interests lookin' to buy off more of our Big Biz Govs/Canada.

Zombie Slave Drones account for nothing more than labour in Canada..

B.S...Big Biz/Politics...as usual ..

Need a tripple Leader turnover..A Governmental make over......And it Is coming ...2 should resign when they loose(again) .. The other will soon follow...

Canada is /Canadians are, being used, abused , taken over by B.S. Artists..With no real interest in Canada or Canadians...Only their own interests..$$$$...

B.S., always payed for, by the Perpetually Pennyless Public..

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Ed-the-Sock-for-Prime-Minister/116442928431476?sk=wall&filter=2 ... How about the Fed Up ( F.U)Party ? Let Ed the Sock enter the Leaders Debate...Would be more Entertaining anyway..

There is no Properous/Sustainable Future for Canada/ Canadians as long as these False Faced Leaders Stand lying to the Canadian Public, making their false promises, claiming they Stand for Canadian's/on Canada's behalf..

Sorry to say ...They don't ..

Always = The Same result...

= Governmental Insanity...

Lost all sense of Reality.

Green/Clean Tech is now...Is the Future...The Only Way Forward, Toward Prosperity/Sustainability, For 1, For All .. Forever...and Always..

Peace.

Over and Outta Here...

 

[Liberalman]

Whatta Waste of Time and Money..

It's GovernMental Insanity.

Must be some new Big Biz Interests lookin' to buy off more of our Big Biz Govs/Canada.

Zombie Slave Drones account for nothing more than labour in Canada..

B.S...Big Biz/Politics...as usual ..

Need a tripple Leader turnover..A Governmental make over......And it Is coming ...2 should resign when they loose(again) .. The other will soon follow...

Canada is /Canadians are, being used, abused , taken over by B.S. Artists..With no real interest in Canada or Canadians...Only their own interests..$$$$...

B.S., always payed for, by the Perpetually Pennyless Public..

There is no Properous/Sustainable Future for Canada/ Canadians or/ with, these False Faced Leaders...

Sorry to say ...

Always = The Same result...

= Governmental Insanity...

Lost all sense of Reality.

Green/Clean Tech is now...Is the Future...The Only Way Forward, Toward Prosperity/Sustainability, For 1, For All .. Forever...and Always..

Peace.

Over and Outta Here...

Elections are part of democracy and freedom and
freedom costs in money and lives, so enjoy the experience because you are one
of the Canadians paying for it.

 

[DaSleeper]

Elections are part of democracy and freedom and
freedom costs in money and lives, so enjoy the experience because you are one
of the Canadians paying for it.

Some are paying more than others for it......
And Avro is paying more than me....:roll:

 

[GreenFish66]

Democracy in Canada/Globally(right now) is a falasy...Democracy only works when all voices are heard and taken into account. In Canada , like in most countries, the only voices heard, are the ones Big biz/Gov want to hear...cuz ya can't please everyone .>Democratically..

Is all B.S..

Democracy should work to alert the Leaders of needed/wanted change, of things to come...
Apparently "They" re not listening ....

The ones they don't want to hear are democratically and all too often ,so Obviously, ignored/silenced ..

Democracy is not to please the masses, but to control them, more Peacefully..

 

[weaselwords]

The last overnight poll I saw showed only 6% difference between the Conservatives & the Liberals (Nanos 4/1-4/2)

The last overnight poll I saw showed only 6% difference between the Conservatives & the Liberals (Nanos 4/1-4/2)

Misread the date please ignore. Thanks for your patience.

 

[Liberalman]

Nanos Poll ending April 1

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)

 

[GreenFish66]

Nanos Poll ending April 1

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)

-------------------------------------------

hmmm?.. Let's see..Somethin' about that poll just ain't quite right...

Conservative ( -Nano's bias,.round down.- 5%.Give that to the greens..Given my bad math habits ). 34%
Liberal -(Ah.mmm. Accuracy +-3 uh,- 2 ,Liberal bias ,Because Liberalman made the post = -5, round down.Give that to the greens,,) ................................................................................................................................................ 23%
NDP - ( Well we'll just merge them with the Greens)
Bloc - Well... never mind...........................................................................................................................8%
Undecided? - I'll Decide for them ...ahmmmm? .. Let's say Green.
GREEN - ( what's that..4+6+5+17+18...=...umm..yeah about ..) ............................................................................... = 50%

----------------------

...

There you have it.. That's more like it... ..

Is GoverMental Insanity/This Democrazy !

 

[damngrumpy]

At this stage of a campaign those figures mean very little. It should be remembered the Tories
would get a five percent boost when the election is called, happens every time. What is interesting
is the fact that the Bloc is that high. Remember, they are in one Province only and that could have
a serious outcome for someone if the numbers hold.
I predict the race will tighten up in the coming weeks and the original poll numbers will not reflect
where we are right now. The undecideds will likely not go for the government so how does that
split break down? The Greens are not growing in any real measure, so the Green vote is sliding to
the NDP in some measure likely over the past ten months that provided higher figures for Layton.
Some of that vote may well trickle to the Liberals before the end of the race. I think the Conservatives
would have been much happier to see their numbers at forty five to forty six percent and allow for the
race to tighten up. These figure point in the direction of another minority as voters will change views
and the margins of error are yet another factor here.
The Liberal platform is just out and it will gain some traction I am sure. At forty one percent, the
Tories are in an unfavorable position. Undecideds seldom break down and vote for the status quo.
Where that vote goes and how the 18 percent splits up, it the answer to who form government.
I say that because we don't know riding per riding how much undecided vote is located. That also
makes a huge difference. I think this is going to be a very close race in the end with much to be
decided in the weeks ahead. Remember the first two polls are nothing more than an outline, the
real polling figures of substance do not reflect a direction until about week three in a campaign,
usually. I have been around polls, media, strategy, and campaign rooms a long time and I don't
see anyone panicking yet because there is no clear substantive direction for anyone yet.

 

[GreenFish66]

= ..Same result..

 

[sweetfrog]

Here is an interesting poll about Candian politics. You can cast a vote with your IP ADDRESS.

 

[Liberalman]

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 2nd (n=1,200; committed voters
only n=986).

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 42.3%
(+1.6)
Liberal 28.4% (-1.0)
NDP 16.4% (-0.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0%
(NC)
Green 3.8% (-0.2)
Undecided 17.8% (NC)

 

[taxslave]

Democracy in Canada/Globally(right now) is a falasy...Democracy only works when all voices are heard and taken into account. In Canada , like in most countries, the only voices heard, are the ones Big biz/Gov want to hear...cuz ya can't please everyone .>Democratically..

Is all B.S..

Democracy should work to alert the Leaders of needed/wanted change, of things to come...
Apparently "They" re not listening ....

The ones they don't want to hear are democratically and all too often ,so Obviously, ignored/silenced ..

Democracy is not to please the masses, but to control them, more Peacefully..

I guess that would depend largely on weather or not it is your party that is governing. Just because a politician isn't listening to you does not mean he/she isn't listening to someone.

 

[JLM]

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 2nd (n=1,200; committed voters
only n=986).

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 42.3%
(+1.6)
Liberal 28.4% (-1.0)
NDP 16.4% (-0.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0%
(NC)
Green 3.8% (-0.2)
Undecided 17.8% (NC)

Looks like Good bye Iggy to me! :smile: