Federal parties in dead heat in poll that shows 57% of Canadians would support a coalition government
National Post | Canadian News, Financial News and Opinion
The three main federal parties are essentially tied in an exclusive new poll that reveals a growing acceptance of the idea of a coalition government among voters.
The Liberals take 32 per cent, the Conservatives 31 per cent and the NDP 28 per cent in the Forum Research survey conducted this week. Though it shows a slight dip in support for the New Democrats — a break from other federal polling released this week — the margin of error means the parties remain in a statistical dead heat.
“Really, the three parties are neck-and-neck,” said Forum President Lorne Bozinoff in an interview. However, because the Conservative support is more optimally spread, the poll predicts they would win the largest share of the 338 seats in play, but would fall short of a majority. If an election were held today, the poll predicts the Conservatives would take 151 seats, the Liberals would take 101 and the NDP 83. Parties require 170 seats to form a one-seat majority in the newly enlarged parliament.
However, there are months until the election, expected in October, and the survey highlights two other issues: Bozinoff said the Conservatives are well within striking distance of a majority, but also that Liberal and NDP voters are especially open to the idea of a coalition government.
“The Tory vote is way better distributed than the Liberal vote,” Bozinoff said. “The Tories are within (reach of) a majority.”
Support in Ontario, where the Liberals need to gain seats to come anywhere close to forming government, is fairly evenly split: 33 per cent support the Liberals, and 31 per cent each for the Conservatives and the NDP.
The Tories are within a majority
“These numbers would put the Liberals in great difficulty in Ontario,” Bozinoff said. The Liberals’ rising fortunes in Quebec — 34 per cent support to 24 per cent for the NDP and 23 per cent for the Conservatives — may look promising; however, he cautioned that the electorate is mercurial.
“In Quebec, the Liberals are up this month, but that could disappear tomorrow,” Bozinoff said. “The Trudeau name is a two-edged sword” in the province.
What that split support could add up to is another Conservative majority.
A new Conservative attack ad — “Justin Trudeau — just not ready” — is a departure from the vicious broadside that greeted him when he became Liberal leader. Conservative Party of Canada
“If the NDP and Liberals remain strong in splitting the progressive vote, this is going to be like (former prime minister Jean) Chrétien in reverse,” Bozinoff said. Chrétien won his majorities in the 1990s when right-leaning votes were split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party.
Pierre Elliott Trudeau international airport in Montreal. John Kenney/Postmedia/Files
Federal parties in dead heat in poll that shows 57% of Canadians would support a coalition government
National Post | Canadian News, Financial News and Opinion
The three main federal parties are essentially tied in an exclusive new poll that reveals a growing acceptance of the idea of a coalition government among voters.
The Liberals take 32 per cent, the Conservatives 31 per cent and the NDP 28 per cent in the Forum Research survey conducted this week. Though it shows a slight dip in support for the New Democrats — a break from other federal polling released this week — the margin of error means the parties remain in a statistical dead heat.
“Really, the three parties are neck-and-neck,” said Forum President Lorne Bozinoff in an interview. However, because the Conservative support is more optimally spread, the poll predicts they would win the largest share of the 338 seats in play, but would fall short of a majority. If an election were held today, the poll predicts the Conservatives would take 151 seats, the Liberals would take 101 and the NDP 83. Parties require 170 seats to form a one-seat majority in the newly enlarged parliament.
However, there are months until the election, expected in October, and the survey highlights two other issues: Bozinoff said the Conservatives are well within striking distance of a majority, but also that Liberal and NDP voters are especially open to the idea of a coalition government.
“The Tory vote is way better distributed than the Liberal vote,” Bozinoff said. “The Tories are within (reach of) a majority.”
Support in Ontario, where the Liberals need to gain seats to come anywhere close to forming government, is fairly evenly split: 33 per cent support the Liberals, and 31 per cent each for the Conservatives and the NDP.
The Tories are within a majority
“These numbers would put the Liberals in great difficulty in Ontario,” Bozinoff said. The Liberals’ rising fortunes in Quebec — 34 per cent support to 24 per cent for the NDP and 23 per cent for the Conservatives — may look promising; however, he cautioned that the electorate is mercurial.
“In Quebec, the Liberals are up this month, but that could disappear tomorrow,” Bozinoff said. “The Trudeau name is a two-edged sword” in the province.
What that split support could add up to is another Conservative majority.
A new Conservative attack ad — “Justin Trudeau — just not ready” — is a departure from the vicious broadside that greeted him when he became Liberal leader. Conservative Party of Canada
“If the NDP and Liberals remain strong in splitting the progressive vote, this is going to be like (former prime minister Jean) Chrétien in reverse,” Bozinoff said. Chrétien won his majorities in the 1990s when right-leaning votes were split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party.
Pierre Elliott Trudeau international airport in Montreal. John Kenney/Postmedia/Files
Federal parties in dead heat in poll that shows 57% of Canadians would support a coalition government
