Brexit 2019: the Good, Bad and could-turn-Ugly options

Blackleaf

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The result of the Brexit referendum was 51% for and 48% against. That's a pretty damned slim "most" ... so slim that it very well may no longer be true, now that Britons have more information about it.

It was 52% for.

Many of the 48% would have voted for Leave but were bullied into voting Remain by the Remainers and their ludicrous scaremongering.

And it's a known fact that, when looking into what constituencies voted Leave and which voted Remain in the referendum, had the referendum been a General Election then Leave would have won by a massive landslide. Of the 650 constituencies, 408 of them voted Leave and just 242 voted Remain.

If there were a referendum tomorrow, Leave would win by much more than 52%-48%.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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It was 52% for.
Many of the 48% would have voted for Leave but were bullied into voting Remain by the Remainers and their ludicrous scaremongering.
And it's a known fact that, when looking into what constituencies voted Leave and which voted Remain in the referendum, had the referendum been a General Election then Leave would have won by a massive landslide. Of the 650 constituencies, 408 of them voted Leave and just 242 voted Remain.
If there were a referendum tomorrow, Leave would win by much more than 52%-48%.
It shows how insecure you are about the whole thing to quibble about the rounding up/down of 1%.
 

Blackleaf

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It shows how insecure you are about the whole thing to quibble about the rounding up/down of 1%.

No, it doesn't. It shows I want the correct figures and not some fake news depicting a referendum which only adds up to 99%.
 

Curious Cdn

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No, it doesn't. It shows I want the correct figures and not some fake news depicting a referendum which only adds up to 99%.
99%+- some change. There are always spoiled ballots, unclear votes and there is always a reason why poll results don't add up to 100% .

Crap, you really ARE scared, aren't you?
 

Blackleaf

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99%+- some change. There are always spoiled ballots, unclear votes and there is always a reason why poll results don't add up to 100% .
Crap, you really ARE scared, aren't you?

It has to add up to 100%, you bozo.

And the result of the referendum was 52%-48% in favour of Leave and Leave would have won by a massive landslide had it been a general election.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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It has to add up to 100%, you bozo.
And the result of the referendum was 52%-48% in favour of Leave and Leave would have won by a massive landslide had it been a general election.
It was somebody's rounding, "bozo".

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-referendum/

Seems to me that you are massively insecure about that phantom 0.009 (or 0.9 x 1%) of the vote. It's all irrelevant, anyway. Britain is firmly committed to her course and the chips will fall where they may.

Rots 'o Ruck. Wait 'til you find out what your "special relationship" with Trump is worth to you.
 

Blackleaf

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It was somebody's rounding, "bozo".
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-referendum/
Seems to me that you are massively insecure about that phantom 0.009 (or 0.9 x 1%) of the vote. It's all irrelevant, anyway. Britain is firmly committed to her course and the chips will fall where they may.
Rots 'o Ruck. Wait 'til you find out what your "special relationship" with Trump is worth to you.

They quite rightly rounded it up from 51.9% to 52%, rather than wrongly rounding it downwards as you did.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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It was somebody's rounding, "bozo".
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-referendum/
Seems to me that you are massively insecure about that phantom 0.009 (or 0.9 x 1%) of the vote. It's all irrelevant, anyway. Britain is firmly committed to her course and the chips will fall where they may.
Rots 'o Ruck. Wait 'til you find out what your "special relationship" with Trump is worth to you.

Couldn't be a worse time for Brexit. Trump will squeeze the UK for all it's worth in any trade negotiation if the UK is foolish enough to even try to negotiate with him like Trudeau did.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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Couldn't be a worse time for Brexit. Trump will squeeze the UK for all it's worth in any trade negotiation if the UK is foolish enough to even try to negotiate with him like Trudeau did.
The delusion is widespread in the UK. ...whistling past the graveyard.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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The delusion is widespread in the UK. ...whistling past the graveyard.

And unfortunately for both the UK and Canada, Canada has a strong protectionist streak too. The good news for the UK though is that Trump might have wakened Canada from its protectionist lethargy at least somewhat (or so I hope).
 

Curious Cdn

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And unfortunately for both the UK and Canada, Canada has a strong protectionist streak too. The good news for the UK though is that Trump might have wakened Canada from its protectionist lethargy at least somewhat (or so I hope).
Our situation is very different from Britain's. We are an exporting country, ... food, resources, even manufactured goods. Britain is a net importer that used to export manufactured goods but priced themselves out if the market with their muscular Sterling. Scotch whiskey exports in no way cancel out the imports of just about everything into the island nation.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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Our situation is very different from Britain's. We are an exporting country, ... food, resources, even manufactured goods. Britain is a net importer that used to export manufactured goods but priced themselves out if the market with their muscular Sterling. Scotch whiskey exports in no way cancel out the imports of just about everything into the island nation.

The UK exports quite a bit too, especially in banking and services but in manufacturing too.
 

Blackleaf

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Our situation is very different from Britain's. We are an exporting country, ... food, resources, even manufactured goods. Britain is a net importer that used to export manufactured goods but priced themselves out if the market with their muscular Sterling. Scotch whiskey exports in no way cancel out the imports of just about everything into the island nation.

Britain is the ninth-largest exporting nation in the world.
 

Blackleaf

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They import far more than they export and that has been their situation since the early 20th century.

Britain has a trade deficit with only one part of the world - the EU.

It has a trade surplus with the rest of the world.

For example, Britain exports far more to the US than the US exports to Britain.
 

White_Unifier

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They import far more than they export and that has been their situation since the early 20th century.

They can only do that for so long before it pushes the relative value of the pound down. The market will rectify itself. After all, we don't export to the UK for charity, we do so for British pounds, and a British pound is not worth much unless we then use it for something. We could buy UK stocks or property with it, UK services, food at a Uk restaurant, or even a manufactured product from the UK. We could even sell our pound for another currency to someone else who inteds to buy it. But at the end of the day, we don't export to the UK for nothing, so if the UK imports more than it sells, then that means there are many pounds floating around waiting to be used. The owners will presumably want to use them sooner or later, no?
 

White_Unifier

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Britain has a trade deficit with only one part of the world - the EU.
It has a trade surplus with the rest of the world.
For example, Britain exports far more to the US than the US exports to Britain.

And the EU helps the UK by keeping the pound down in value so that you can export elsewhere. If Canada only ever exported, it wouldn't take long before the Canadian dollar would start to rise beyond most foreigners' reach. If Canada only imported, it wouldn't take long for the Canadian dollar to fall to make our exports ever more attractive. No economy can function over the long run by just importing or just exporting, It all has to balance out in the end. What's earth's balance of trade right now if I may ask?
 

Blackleaf

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They can only do that for so long before it pushes the relative value of the pound down. The market will rectify itself. After all, we don't export to the UK for charity, we do so for British pounds, and a British pound is not worth much unless we then use it for something. We could buy UK stocks or property with it, UK services, food at a Uk restaurant, or even a manufactured product from the UK. We could even sell our pound for another currency to someone else who inteds to buy it. But at the end of the day, we don't export to the UK for nothing, so if the UK imports more than it sells, then that means there are many pounds floating around waiting to be used. The owners will presumably want to use them sooner or later, no?

You'll find that the proportions of Canada's economy which are services and which are manufacturing are very similar to Britain's.

Like the UK, Canada is a services economy with little manufacturing.