Brexit 2019: the Good, Bad and could-turn-Ugly options

[White_Unifier]

Why?

Because it's a collection of sovereign states that decide their own trade relationships, and they've decided to create a trading block with free trade within and protectionism without. That means thas they will trade with the UK within the block but not without. In my opinion, they're just hurting themselves by doing that (one good reason for Brexit), but the UK doesn't get to dictate that for them. That's the kind of arrangement they've decided on and the UK can just take it or leave it.

In my opinion, the UK might end up beter off with unilateral global free trade but worse off if it turns to protectionism of its own (at least the rest of the EU has each other to trade with). That's why I'm so ambivalent about Brexit. It's hard to say what kind of Brexit the UK will turn to in the end and so whether it will come out better off or worse off in the end.

That said, if a post Brexit Uk does embrace free trade, even though it might benefit overall, it will still hurt at least somewhat in relation to EU trade. Sure the EU is hurting itself with its protectionism, but the UK needs to accept that leaving the EU for real free trade will probably mean losing preferential access to the EU market. That's just a choice the UK must make and not whine about it: just as the UK can do what it wants towards the EU, the same goes for the EU towards the UK. It has no obligation to negotiate what it doesn't want to negotiate.

The UK should just play the cards it's dealt.

Same applies to Canada. I'm under no illusion that the US might raise tariffs against Canada if Canada adopted unilateral global free trade as it would be the US' sovereign right to do so. Instead of complaining about it though, I just accept that that would be the price of Canada going that route in the knowledge that Canada might end up better off in the end even if there are initial growing pains.

 

[Blackleaf]

Because it's a collection of sovereign states

No, it isn't.

 

[Blackleaf]

Of course, as things stand the UK won't accept a bad deal. It's not going to accept a deal that is bad for it. It can just walk away without one. That is why the UK needs to keep the No Deal option and why it's ludicrous that some politicians want to hobble their own country in the negotiations by wanting to get rid of that option.

 

[White_Unifier]

Of course, as things stand the UK won't accept a bad deal. It's not going to accept a deal that is bad for it. It can just walk away without one. That is why the UK needs to keep the No Deal option and why it's ludicrous that some politicians want to hobble their own country in the negotiations by wanting to get rid of that option.

So you accept then that the EU has no obligaton to choose to trade freely with the UK? I agree that the EU is shooting itself in the foot by doing so, but my point is that that's their prerogative.

 

[Blackleaf]

So you accept then that the EU has no obligaton to choose to trade freely with the UK? I agree that the EU is shooting itself in the foot by doing so, but my point is that that's their prerogative.

If an organisation is of the mentality to hurt itself just so it can hurt a member which decides to leave it then it goes to show that it's an organisation that no country in its right mind would want to be part of.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Why?

Why not? Britain has eloquently expressed its hatred and contempt for the EU.

The nation of whimpering cowards wants all the benefits of membership in the EU, and none of the requirements. Don't work like that. If I were the EU, I'd impose a 50% tariff on all British goods, and flat-out ban importation of anything that didn't meet every single EU standard. I would also require Brits wanting to travel to the EU to get visas in advance, deniable at any time for any reason, and sharply time limited.

 

[Blackleaf]

Why not? Britain has eloquently expressed its hatred and contempt for the EU.
The nation of whimpering cowards wants all the benefits of membership in the EU, and none of the requirements. Don't work like that. If I were the EU, I'd impose a 50% tariff on all British goods, and flat-out ban importation of anything that didn't meet every single EU standard. I would also require Brits wanting to travel to the EU to get visas in advance, deniable at any time for any reason, and sharply time limited.

What are those benefits?

And if the EU is so good, why don't you campaign for America to join? It seems that you would love your country to be ruled by unelected foreigners in Brussels and Strasbourg. And your membership would more than likely fill the black hole left in the EU's coffers after Britain leaves - you'd likely be the biggest contributor to the EU budget.

I'm sure Americans would be far more sensible than the troublemaking British and would love to contribute billions to the EU budget each year whilst being ruled by unelected foreign bureaucrats.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

What are those benefits?

Free trade, for starters. But not for long now.

And if the EU is so good, why don't you campaign for America to join? It seems that you would love your country to be ruled by unelected foreigners in Brussels and Strasbourg. And your membership would more than likely fill the black hole left in the EU's coffers after Britain leaves - you'd likely be the biggest contributor to the EU budget.
I'm sure Americans would be far more sensible than the troublemaking British and would love to contribute billions to the EU budget each year whilst being ruled by unelected foreign bureaucrats.

Whimper, whimper, little Brit. Your monarchs are all unelected foreigners.

 

[Blackleaf]

Free trade, for starters. But not for long now.

Considering the EU sells more to Britain than Britain sells to it then I'm sure the EU will come out a loss worse. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

If the Germans, French and Italians no longer want to sell us their cars, cheeses and wine then that's THEIR problem. We'll find better and cheaper alternatives elsewhere.

And the EU only makes up a minority of UK trade and the UK's share of trade with the EU is shrinking year on year. The EU is simply becoming less and less important to the UK for trade.

 

[Blackleaf]

Free trade, for starters. But not for long now.
Whimper, whimper, little Brit. Your monarchs are all unelected foreigners.

Well our monarchs aren't politicians and have no political power.

But you still haven't answered my question.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Well our monarchs aren't politicians and have no political power.
But you still haven't answered my question.

Nor do I intend to, because “To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead."
-- Thomas Paine

Considering that all three World Wars were started in Europe, and intimately involved Brits, I think the U.S., Russia, and China should agree that the next time one breaks out, we should just nuke London, Paris, and Berlin. Then Manchester, Marseilles, and Frankfurt. Then just keep on going until y'all quit.

 

[Blackleaf]

Nor do I intend to, because “To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead."
-- Thomas Paine
Considering that all three World Wars were started in Europe, and intimately involved Brits, I think the U.S., Russia, and China should agree that the next time one breaks out, we should just nuke London, Paris, and Berlin. Then Manchester, Marseilles, and Frankfurt. Then just keep on going until y'all quit.

The two world wars were started by the Germans. And the British bear them.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

The two world wars were started by the Germans. And the British bear them.

Yep, mad as a hatter and ignorant as a fencepost.

 

[Blackleaf]

Yep, mad as a hatter and ignorant as a fencepost.

 

[Blackleaf]

Free trade, for starters. But not for long now.

The UK’s unnoticed export boom underlines why a no-deal Brexit is nothing to fear

The UK’s unnoticed export boom underlines why a no-deal Brexit is nothing to fear

Written by Marcus Gibson
December 6th 2018
BrexitCentral

Marcus Gibson was for a number of years a journalist and correspondent for BBC Radio 4, The European and later the Financial Times and soon became aware of the strongly anti-UK attitudes prevalent in Brussels and much of the EU. In 2003 he started Gibson Index Ltd, a research house based in Mayfair that catalogues the tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK.

A true economic miracle is happening. An extraordinary leap in the UK’s global export trade has occurred – a complete reverse of the ‘Doomsday’ predictions of the Treasury, Bank of England and Department for Business in London both before and after the Brexit vote.

According to figures published by the UK Office of National Statistics in November – in the second calendar year following the EU referendum – exports to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion.

In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion.

Doubters will say it is a temporary blip caused by the falling pound. Not true. The boom is in new markets, and largely in new products and services, too. UK exports not just increased but doubled in hitherto obscure countries such as Oman and Macedonia. Exports to distant Kazakhstan climbed to $2 billion, only slightly less than the UK’s exports to Austria, worth $2.43 billion in 2017, which like many EU nations buys very little from the UK.

In the 12 months to September, the value of UK exports grew by some 4.4%, including strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Indeed, HMRC stated that exports of goods had shown “robust growth in every single region of the UK”. The number of Welsh SMEs which export doubled during the last two years to 52%.

Curiously, none of this has been spotted by any of the UK’s headline media – the BBC, Sky News or the FT. Not a peep from the new editor of the Daily Mail. Even The Economist was asleep on the job. Meanwhile, various government departments are spending much of their time issuing ‘Death in Brexit’ forecasts in a co-ordinated campaign with the Bank of England and other allies – and rarely champion our achievements.

Four years ago I was interviewed by Richard Cockett, The Economist’s UK business editor. I told him the UK was experiencing an unparalleled SME boom. How did I know, he asked? Since leaving the FT as a technology correspondent and columnist in 2003, my small team in central London has maintained a uniquely comprehensive database of more than 70,000 UK smaller companies.

As a result, daily we receive an avalanche of success stories. In the food and drink sector alone, if you want whisky marmalade or beetroot ketchup, or 500 new gin varieties or more than 1,000 new craft beers launched since 2011, our very brave, risk-adoring micro-SMEs will deliver.

If a New York cathedral needs a new, hand-made organ that £3 million contract comes to Britain. We sell sand to Saudi Arabia, china to China, and Turkish delight to Turkey. In the ultra-competitive auto components sector, UK exports are up 20%. Luxury goods, consumer goods, clever instrumentation for NASA and crucial cerebral input into US defence projects are all avidly listed in our dataset.

And yet, in our view the true importance of the export boom is as much political as economic. It proves that a No-Deal exit from the EU – or what I much prefer to call ‘Our Own Deal’ – is by far the best option, and far less damaging and disruptive than the ‘experts’ at the Bank of England, IoD, CBI, OECD and World Bank have forecast.

Far from being the ‘poverty and isolation’ scenario predicted by the chin tremblers who endlessly appear on Radio 4, the UK will be far less dependent on the EU in as little as five years.

Fears about UK-made cars from Japanese firms such as Nissan and Toyota being cut off from Europe are groundless. First, the UK could retaliate against BMW and VW – something no post-Merkel German politician would tolerate. Any anti-Japanese actions by the French would result in the rapid diminution of the £4 billion annual exports of French cosmetics to Japan. And the French know it, no matter what Macron might bluster.

But the export explosion is not the only piece of recent great news for the UK – there is more. First, in October 2018 Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, invited the UK to become part of the Pacific free trade pact – although this is dependent on the UK leaving the EU’s Customs Union. It would make the UK the sole geographically-distant member of the grouping, helping the country to rebuild trading links around the Pacific Ocean that stretch back more than two centuries.

Next, BP’s huge Claire Ridge oilfield, west of the Shetlands, just came on stream, providing no less than £42 billion in revenues over the next 25 years. It is a development much envied across energy-starved Europe – and there are more oilfields to come.

At this critical moment in the Brexit saga, it is vital the UK now wakes up to the much brighter future it has outside of the EU, and vital that Mrs May copies the bravery of our SME exporters. The so-called ‘No-Deal’, a term that needlessly frightens ordinary citizens, should indeed be re-named ‘Our Own Deal’, in which we invite all nations to trade with us on fair trade, low or no tariff, basis.

The UK economy will soon be in a solidly secure position to refuse any damaging ‘deal’ from the European Commission. Perhaps it was always the height of imbecility to think we could ever get a good deal from the Commission.

Finally, the tide of history is in our favour, even in Europe. The current, sub-optimal generation of European politicians – Cameron, Merkel, Juncker – will soon ‘be history’. Merkel goes next year – and every EU Commissioner will be replaced, too.

For hundreds of thousands of small UK companies, a complete split from the EU can’t come soon enough.

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

[White_Unifier]

Free trade, for starters. But not for long now.
Whimper, whimper, little Brit. Your monarchs are all unelected foreigners.

And it would seem that but for a fringe minority of Brexiteers, most are protectionists looking to build Fortress UK. That males the EU look like free-trade enthusiasts in comparison. I suspect those Brexiteers who were motivated by free trade will soon be sorely disappointed if the protectionist knuckledraggers take over after Brexit.

 

[White_Unifier]

If an organisation is of the mentality to hurt itself just so it can hurt a member which decides to leave it then it goes to show that it's an organisation that no country in its right mind would want to be part of.

I'll grant you that.

 

[White_Unifier]

The UK’s unnoticed export boom underlines why a no-deal Brexit is nothing to fear
The UK’s unnoticed export boom underlines why a no-deal Brexit is nothing to fear
Written by Marcus Gibson
December 6th 2018
BrexitCentral

Marcus Gibson was for a number of years a journalist and correspondent for BBC Radio 4, The European and later the Financial Times and soon became aware of the strongly anti-UK attitudes prevalent in Brussels and much of the EU. In 2003 he started Gibson Index Ltd, a research house based in Mayfair that catalogues the tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK.
A true economic miracle is happening. An extraordinary leap in the UK’s global export trade has occurred – a complete reverse of the ‘Doomsday’ predictions of the Treasury, Bank of England and Department for Business in London both before and after the Brexit vote.
According to figures published by the UK Office of National Statistics in November – in the second calendar year following the EU referendum – exports to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion.
In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion.
Doubters will say it is a temporary blip caused by the falling pound. Not true. The boom is in new markets, and largely in new products and services, too. UK exports not just increased but doubled in hitherto obscure countries such as Oman and Macedonia. Exports to distant Kazakhstan climbed to $2 billion, only slightly less than the UK’s exports to Austria, worth $2.43 billion in 2017, which like many EU nations buys very little from the UK.
In the 12 months to September, the value of UK exports grew by some 4.4%, including strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Indeed, HMRC stated that exports of goods had shown “robust growth in every single region of the UK”. The number of Welsh SMEs which export doubled during the last two years to 52%.
Curiously, none of this has been spotted by any of the UK’s headline media – the BBC, Sky News or the FT. Not a peep from the new editor of the Daily Mail. Even The Economist was asleep on the job. Meanwhile, various government departments are spending much of their time issuing ‘Death in Brexit’ forecasts in a co-ordinated campaign with the Bank of England and other allies – and rarely champion our achievements.
Four years ago I was interviewed by Richard Cockett, The Economist’s UK business editor. I told him the UK was experiencing an unparalleled SME boom. How did I know, he asked? Since leaving the FT as a technology correspondent and columnist in 2003, my small team in central London has maintained a uniquely comprehensive database of more than 70,000 UK smaller companies.
As a result, daily we receive an avalanche of success stories. In the food and drink sector alone, if you want whisky marmalade or beetroot ketchup, or 500 new gin varieties or more than 1,000 new craft beers launched since 2011, our very brave, risk-adoring micro-SMEs will deliver.
If a New York cathedral needs a new, hand-made organ that £3 million contract comes to Britain. We sell sand to Saudi Arabia, china to China, and Turkish delight to Turkey. In the ultra-competitive auto components sector, UK exports are up 20%. Luxury goods, consumer goods, clever instrumentation for NASA and crucial cerebral input into US defence projects are all avidly listed in our dataset.
And yet, in our view the true importance of the export boom is as much political as economic. It proves that a No-Deal exit from the EU – or what I much prefer to call ‘Our Own Deal’ – is by far the best option, and far less damaging and disruptive than the ‘experts’ at the Bank of England, IoD, CBI, OECD and World Bank have forecast.
Far from being the ‘poverty and isolation’ scenario predicted by the chin tremblers who endlessly appear on Radio 4, the UK will be far less dependent on the EU in as little as five years.
Fears about UK-made cars from Japanese firms such as Nissan and Toyota being cut off from Europe are groundless. First, the UK could retaliate against BMW and VW – something no post-Merkel German politician would tolerate. Any anti-Japanese actions by the French would result in the rapid diminution of the £4 billion annual exports of French cosmetics to Japan. And the French know it, no matter what Macron might bluster.
But the export explosion is not the only piece of recent great news for the UK – there is more. First, in October 2018 Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, invited the UK to become part of the Pacific free trade pact – although this is dependent on the UK leaving the EU’s Customs Union. It would make the UK the sole geographically-distant member of the grouping, helping the country to rebuild trading links around the Pacific Ocean that stretch back more than two centuries.
Next, BP’s huge Claire Ridge oilfield, west of the Shetlands, just came on stream, providing no less than £42 billion in revenues over the next 25 years. It is a development much envied across energy-starved Europe – and there are more oilfields to come.
At this critical moment in the Brexit saga, it is vital the UK now wakes up to the much brighter future it has outside of the EU, and vital that Mrs May copies the bravery of our SME exporters. The so-called ‘No-Deal’, a term that needlessly frightens ordinary citizens, should indeed be re-named ‘Our Own Deal’, in which we invite all nations to trade with us on fair trade, low or no tariff, basis.
The UK economy will soon be in a solidly secure position to refuse any damaging ‘deal’ from the European Commission. Perhaps it was always the height of imbecility to think we could ever get a good deal from the Commission.
Finally, the tide of history is in our favour, even in Europe. The current, sub-optimal generation of European politicians – Cameron, Merkel, Juncker – will soon ‘be history’. Merkel goes next year – and every EU Commissioner will be replaced, too.
For hundreds of thousands of small UK companies, a complete split from the EU can’t come soon enough.
https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

Uncertainty creates a weak pound, and that boosts exports. If the UK embraces free trade after Brexit, it might succeed, but for moat, Brexit is just reactionary xenophobia and economic protectionism, so pardon my lack of confidence in your long term, but we'll see.

 

[Blackleaf]

Uncertainty creates a weak pound, and that boosts exports. If the UK embraces free trade after Brexit, it might succeed, but for moat, Brexit is just reactionary xenophobia and economic protectionism, so pardon my lack of confidence in your long term, but we'll see.

I didn't realise seeking independence is xenophobia. Were the Americans xenophobic, too? Are Scottish nationalists?

 

[White_Unifier]

I didn't realise seeking independence is xenophobia. Were the Americans xenophobic, too? Are Scottish nationalists?

Are you saying that moat Brexiteers are for freer trade? For the UK's sake, I hope so, but we'll see.