338Canada projects Conservative victory if election held right now (just barely :) )

[The_Foxer]

Well that's the first time we've see a projection that actually has the CPC as MOST likely to win in about 6 years.

Obviously a win like that would be nothing to get excited about. But it's the first time we've been ahead in ages. And a lot of that appears to be coming from the 905 in Ontario.

I doubt very much Justin will be excited about going to the polls with those kinds of numbers so we should at least have a year to minimum to build on that. But so far so good

 

[harrylee]

Anything short of a majority is useless to the conservatives. Jagmeathead is going to prop up anything Justin wants and it's game over.
That said, in Ontario, the polls were not accurate by how much Wynne would lose by and look what happened there.

 

[The_Foxer]

Anything short of a majority is useless to the conservatives. Jagmeathead is going to prop up anything Justin wants and it's game over.
That said, in Ontario, the polls were not accurate by how much Wynne would lose by and look what happened there.

Well it's very early days, we have a long time to build on that. And campaigns matter, it's not uncommon to add 5 or 6 points in a good campaign. And PP is a good campaigner.

But it's also worth noting that while the ndp will prop the libs, it's historically been the case that the CPC has been able to do deals with the Bloc to get things done. There's a lot they likely COUDN'T get done but they could still function.

Not to mention the libs (for sure) and the ndp (probably ) would be into leadership conventions, and it's a little easier to bully them around when they don't want an election.

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

Anything short of a majority is useless to the conservatives. Jagmeathead is going to prop up anything Justin wants and it's game over.
That said, in Ontario, the polls were not accurate by how much Wynne would lose by and look what happened there.

It depends on the strength. If they have more seats, they would be the ones who would need help of just 1 opposition party to govern. And wouldn't always need to be the same one. Like Harper did for 8 years prior to his majority. Currently the Liberals have the most seats and can be propped up with just the NDP. For the Conservatives to do that right now they would need help from both the Blockheads and the NDP.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Well it's very early days, we have a long time to build on that. And campaigns matter, it's not uncommon to add 5 or 6 points in a good campaign. And PP is a good campaigner.

Justin is a good campaigner too though.

But it's also worth noting that while the ndp will prop the libs, it's historically been the case that the CPC has been able to do deals with the Bloc to get things done. There's a lot they likely COUDN'T get done but they could still function.

Not to mention the libs (for sure) and the ndp (probably ) would be into leadership conventions, and it's a little easier to bully them around when they don't want an election.

 

[The_Foxer]

Federal Politics: Conservatives open seven-point lead over Liberals as past PPC voters migrate to Poilievre - Angus Reid Institute

35 per cent of Canadians view Pierre Poilievre favourably, 40 per cent approve of Trudeau’s performance September 27, 2022 – The ascendance of Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives

angusreid.org

That's the second poll that suggests the lead is really opening up. PP's favorability rating is also climbing, although strangely in Canada that's never been a great predictor of how people are going to vote.

It's pretty common for a new leader to get a bit of a bump in the polls for 3-6 months or so (covid kind of stopped that but it's over now). How he maximizes this time to establish himself will be critical, but it's pretty clear he has a lot of room for growth and he's already in a position where he could beat the libs.

2023 is trudeau's last practical year to step down if he's going to in order to let someone else take a crack at it if he thinks he's unpopular. After that there isn't enough time for a leadership race and for the new leader to prepare for the election properly. It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next year.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Liberal MP Rachel Bendayan said it was “laughable” to suggest that the Conservative party has a plan to “fight the climate crisis” whereas NDP MP Matthew Green said Canadians “deserve to know” what the Conservatives have in mind.

…& if they really want to find out, the NDP Just Has to drop the façade of pretending to be in opposition seating to the Liberals in the Non-Coalition Coalition’s Coalition and they’d find out very quickly…

Poilievre used his first opposition day as Conservative leader on Tuesday to speak out against the federal carbon tax in the House of Commons, but was instead confronted by the Liberals, the Bloc Quebecois, the NDP and the Greens on his climate change plan.

…As the Bloc Québécois, the NDP, and the Green seem to have forgotten about the Liberals being in Government…& the Conservatives & Bloc Québécois & NDP & even the Greens are the OPPOSITION to the GOVERNMENT as CRITICS….and NOT Trudeau Fanboys.

Pierre Poilievre plans to scrap the carbon tax, but will he unveil a climate plan? — National Post

He has repeatedly been saying that technology, not taxes, is the way forward to reduce emissions

apple.news

Poilievre’s office provided no clarification on the possibility of a more detailed climate plan that would outline how his party would attain zero emission goals, but it is clear that it would not include a carbon tax.

Perhaps when the OTHER Opposition Party’s to the Government remember that they’re Opposition to the Current Gov’t & not the Conservative Party that’s ALSO an Opposition Party to the Current Gov’t, we can start getting somewhere.

LILLEY: Poilievre's Conservatives ahead of Trudeau's Liberals, third poll shows — Toronto Sun

Considering the near non-stop attacks in some parts of the media, it is truly remarkable.

apple.news

In the last week Leger, Mainstreet and Angus Reid polls have all shown the Conservatives with a significant lead over the Liberals.

The latest Angus Reid poll puts the Conservatives at 37% to the Liberals’ 30% support, with the Conservatives taking significant support – 39% – in Ontario.

None of these polls, all taken in the last two weeks, shows the same results, but they do show a lead of 6-8% for the Conservatives and that is what is significant here. We are a long way out from a possible election (Right, Jagmeet??) and lots can happen between now and then, but voters appear willing to give Poilievre a look.

Considering the near non-stop attacks in some parts of the media (and in Parliament by the NDP/Liberals and Greens and most recently even the Bloc Québécois), that is truly remarkable.

It’s still possible we could see an early vote but these polls and any more that look like them will put the brakes on that idea and send Trudeau’s team scrambling for something, anything, to attack Poilievre with….”So Tell Us What Your Plans are Pierre ‘Cuz You’re….You’re EVIL For Not… Something Or Another!!!”

The recent selection of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader and Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will lead the Liberals into the next federal election has started a chain of events that will play out over the next 12 months.

After that Canadians can expect another federal election.

During the past century, no minority government has lasted three years; most far less. Trudeau’s current minority isn’t likely to break any longevity record.

Not again: Why another federal election may be on the horizon in Canada — The Conversation Canada

Canadians went to the polls twice in two years, in 2019 and 2021. Here’s why yet another federal election likely looms in the fall of 2023 or the spring of 2024.

apple.news

The Non-Coalition Coalition’s Coalition confidence-and-supply agreement negotiated earlier this year between the Liberal/NDP and the NDP/Liberals was aimed at ensuring the Liberal/NDP minority governs to 2025. But the agreement isn’t binding, and it will probably falter sooner rather than later. Both parties will want their independence or else Poilievre will depict them as interchangeable. They Aren’t Interchangeable like two Mr. Potato Head Sets???

The Conservatives will need a year to develop a new policy platform and adjust to their new leader. The result will likely be a more centrist party than the whole Left Wing currently showing it’s bias instead of being Opposition Parties to the Current Government like they’re supposed to be.

Trudeau’s Liberals will probably shift to the right of Bernie Sanders over the next year, seeking to occupy as much of the political spectrum there as possible by squeezing the NDP on the left and the Conservatives to the middle-right.

 

[Serryah]

I'm still gonna wait to see what the Cons throw out as their 'party platform'.

I know there won't be a Liberal or NDP vote on my end, so we'll see who snags my attention, if any of them.

 

[The_Foxer]

And now a third poll is suggesting the CPC is widening the gap. It shows a 5 point lead for the CPC.

1 in 3 Canadians believe Trudeau should stay in power as Tories edge ahead: poll - National | Globalnews.ca

While there is no election on the immediate horizon, the Liberal-NDP governance deal struck earlier this year aims to last until 2025 -- though could fall apart at any time.

globalnews.ca

 

[The_Foxer]

Pierre Poilievre is building bridges he was expected to burn​

Pierre Poilievre did not win the Conservative leadership by using the subtle arts of diplomacy.
But in his first couple of weeks on the job, Poilievre has been making some choices — especially on the hiring front — that seem to reveal an interest in building as many bridges as the new leader had been expected to burn.

archive.ph

Thats from the Star of all things.

It's too soon to be overly optimistic, but PP is very clearly building a lot of momentum early on and putting down serious roots for the long term, and Trudeau continues to fall further and further out of favour. A significantly larger percent of people say they'd rather have PP as prime minister when asked specifically about the economy, which is the number one issue. They just don't trust justin to fix it.

If polievre runs his national campaign as well as he did his leadership campaign, and if he gets at least a year or two in order to do it before the next election, it could very well be a landslide majority for the CPC.

 

[Ron in Regina]

I'm still gonna wait to see what the Cons throw out as their 'party platform'.

I know there won't be a Liberal or NDP vote on my end, so we'll see who snags my attention, if any of them.

Yes, you bet, once an election is called. Until then The liberal party is in power and the other parties are opposition parties to the liberal party that’s the current Gov’t.

 

[Taxslave2]

You would never know it by their actions.