Pelosi is now 'guaranteeing' a House of Reps majority for the Dems. Not so fast. Here is how i see it.
Mid Term Expectation
Senate - normally a forum for national, external, 'paternal', 'boundary' (exclusive) affairs. +/- 4 (47 - 54).. Likely a gain of 3.
House - normally a forum for more domestic, regional, 'maternal' (inclusive) affairs. +/- 14 (225 - 252).. Repubs could lose all of that and still retain a majority. Likely it'll be a small gain or loss, or basically the status quo.
Trump and MidTerms
Trump is an effective campaigner. He's up against Obama now who is out on the hustings with Bruce Springsteen and Jayzee. Obama is one of the all time worst Presidential campaigners in history. He lost both Houses to the Republicans in his first term and never got them back. He showed little interest in Congressional campaigns and avoided them to the extent he could. When he did go out he did so with his abstract, disconnected, articulate but disconnected style that appeared to be condescending, lecturing and, a bit 'above' his audience.
Trump's success comes from his ability to dive into the muck and wrestle around with his base. He's concrete, engaged and, anything but academic.They love him. Obama's base 'tolerated' him. Even Trump's meeting with that wild man Kanye West probably did him a lot more good than Jayzee and Springsteen are doing for the Dems. Despite the sheer stream of consciousness absurdity of West's spiel he brought up some good points that connected with young black males.
Democratic Franchise
Polls become very unreliable in turbulent, revolutionary times. The so called predictable demographic blocks of college educated women, young urban professionals, intersect with wider aspirations than those of your specific class.
The Dems have abandoned their Working Class Industrial and Agricultural Electoral franchise. They now represent Wall St. Financiers, Hedge Fund money traders, Global Trading Cartels, feminists, homosexuals, young childless urban professionals, radical antihuman eco utopianists.
And have a very tenuous and strained relationship with the urban poor (largely black or hispanic) who have been ghettoized by global free markets. They have esconsed themselves as champions of polarized economic structure that sees welfare rather than economic vigour and growth as the salvation of the nation. That is not a long term winning strategy.