The Tarriff Hype.

[Ron in Regina]

The USMCA/CUSMA/T-MEC is a binding legal agreement, signed by Mr. Trump and ratified by the U.S. Congress. Standing on it makes sense. The President appears to want Canada to accept treaty-violating tariffs, and for Canada to agree to a rewrite of the USMCA that would render Mr. Trump’s treaty violations treaty-compliant.

Mexico said it will monitor the process alongside producers and exporters ⁠until the ITC’s final ruling, expected in early 2027, and argued the criteria used by Commerce ⁠are inconsistent with the World Trade Organization’s Anti-Dumping Agreement and with provisions of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Mexico pushes back on US ruling on strawberry dumping — Reuters

The Mexican government expressed its "serious concern" after learning of a preliminary ruling by the U.S. Department of Commerce that ‌found dumping in Mexican strawberry exports throughout the winter.

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[Ron in Regina]

Prime Minister Mark Carney was scheduled to brief his cabinet and the premiers on Wednesday afternoon as Canadian and U.S. negotiators close in on a trade deal that would avert new tariffs and potentially offer relief to hard-hit industries in exchange for…??? In exchange for what?

Now we wait for the US or some other foreign media to come up with details that aren’t being given to us by our own government?

Carney briefs premiers, cabinet as negotiators work to finalize trade deal — The Globe and Mail

Prime Minister says ‘significant progress’ made on tentative agreement to avoid new tariffs

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U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. stakeholders will be “thrilled” with the tentative deal struck between Canada and the U.S., as negotiations continued Wednesday to finalize an agreement between both countries. “Our farmers are going to be thrilled; our manufacturers are going to be thrilled,” he said, during a press conference in Washington on Wednesday. “And basically, we have no tariffs going into Canada anymore?”

Tariffs going into Canada anymore? Surely at this point, Trump must understand how tariffs work, right? Prohibitive tariffs only trigger if total imports cross those established quotas (in USMCA, that Trump himself signed). U.S. dairy and agricultural groups confirm that American exporters do not fill or exceed these quota volumes, ever, so consequently Canadian consumers have never paid prices inflated by these specific over-quota penalties, ever. Ever. It has never happened as the U.S. fills about 1/2 way to those quotas so it’s not even close.

Trump says U.S. farmers, manufacturers will be 'thrilled' with tentative trade deal with Canada — National Post

The president offered a three-day pause on the latest round of new tariffs

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Maybe Trump is talking about the reciprocal tariffs though, and just forgot to use the word reciprocal as in response to his tariffs?

 

[Ron in Regina]

Prime Minister Mark Carney was scheduled to brief his cabinet and the premiers on Wednesday afternoon as Canadian and U.S. negotiators close in on a trade deal that would avert new tariffs and potentially offer relief to hard-hit industries in exchange for…??? In exchange for what?

Carney, who briefed cabinet ministers and premiers about the draft plan Wednesday, said the deal it builds on Canada's existing trade advantages with the U.S. ???

All Canadian provinces pulled U.S. booze from store shelves last year after Trump imposed tariffs. The bans on U.S. liquor remain in place in all but Saskatchewan and Alberta. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked provinces to restock American alcohol on their shelves as Canada finalizes a trade deal with the U.S. "Whether Nova Scotians or whether Canadians will actually buy it when it gets back on the shelves, that's a whole other discussion."

Houston said provinces were also asked to ensure their procurement policies don't include anything that specifically excludes the United States. U.S. states generally do not (?) have procurement policies that specifically name and exclude Canada or Canadian provinces. Instead, they use broad domestic preferences—such as "Buy American" or "Buy Local" laws—that favor U.S.-made goods or local in-state suppliers over all foreign sources equally.

Speaking about the deal, Houston said he was "optimistic," adding that "the broad strokes of it seem really good for Canada."

Houston said the "core elements" of supply management are set to remain intact under the agreement, but did not provide specifics. He also some areas of defence procurement aren't being touched, which he said is good for Nova Scotia? Some?

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe echoed Houston's comments during a press conference Wednesday, saying the prime minister had asked provinces to change their procurement of U.S. alcohol.

“(That) doesn't impact Saskatchewan or Alberta," he told reporters in Prince Albert, Sask. "We've allowed consumers to make their own choice all along."

Carney asks provinces to return U.S. alcohol to stores — The Canadian Press

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked

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Wow, so we have avoided pile on top of Trump tariffs that would go on top of the other Trump tariffs until at least Saturday (?) in exchange for what?

 

[bob the dog]

Might be good if they use an insignia to indicate Canadian distillers so people are clearly aware of the choice they are making.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Might be good if they use an insignia to indicate Canadian distillers so people are clearly aware of the choice they are making.

U.S. states generally do not (?) have procurement policies that specifically name and exclude Canada or Canadian provinces. Instead, they use broad domestic preferences—such as "Buy American" or "Buy Local" laws—that favor U.S.-made goods or local in-state suppliers over all foreign sources equally.

Yep. That sounds like it doesn’t violate anything. America is already doing it. Good for the goose is good for the gander.

While none of the details of what's being considered have been made public, a source with knowledge of the forthcoming agreement said Trump’s U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are being lowered from 50 per cent to 25 per cent. Discussions regarding derivatives and exemptions are ongoing. The deal is also expected to cut Trump's headline tariff rate on Canadian-built cars and trucks from 25 per cent to 15 per cent, a source said.

Since the North American auto market is so highly integrated, a vehicle assembled in Canada often contains 50 per cent or more of U.S.-manufactured components. If the tariff is applied only to the non-U.S. portion, the effective rate would drop by up to half (7.5 per cent), the source said?

Trump expected to slash tariffs on Canadian goods, Carney asks premiers to put U.S. booze back on shelves — CBC News

Canadian and U.S. negotiators are working on the final text of an agreement that would avert new tariffs and smooth over longstanding bilateral trade irritants, officials from both countries said Wednesday.

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Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said Carney has asked provinces to put U.S. beer, wine and spirits back in government-run liquor stores. The premier said that's something he's "willing to do for the prime minister at this point."

 

[Ron in Regina]

Canada’s top trade negotiators are set to meet with their U.S. counterpart in Washington on Thursday as the two sides work to close a deal meant to offer some relief to Ottawa from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs in exchange for a suite of Canadian concessions?

Trump announced that the countries had reached an agreement on Tuesday night, less than two hours before he was set to hammer Canada with 50-per-cent tariffs on US$20-billion worth of goods, under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. But Mr. Carney told provincial premiers on Wednesday that crucial details – such as the amount of tariff relief Canada will receive – are still being haggled over.

Mexico is watching Canada-U.S. trade talks closely — The Globe and Mail

Mexico City and Washington have already held three rounds of talks, with a fourth set for September

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Canada was ‘hoping’ to trade concessions on a long list of U.S. demands for reduced Trump tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act on autos, steel, aluminum and forestry, which Mr. Trump imposed last year, and for the President not to implement his latest threatened Trump-ish Smoot-Hawley tariffs. Mr. Trump has “paused” those latest tariffs until 12:01 a.m. on Saturday while the two sides try to close a deal upon his coercive but arbitrary time-lines. In exchange, the U.S. demanded Canada end provincial bans on U.S. alcohol and Buy Canadian procurement policies, lift retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos, and change how licences in the dairy supply-management system are allocated.

Washington has also made several defence and security-related demands, including that Canada give the U.S. the right of first refusal on buying critical minerals, complete a deal to buy F-35 fighter jets, buy American military equipment to join the Golden Dome missile defence shield, and export more oil to the U.S. while still facing Trump tariffs but at a somewhat reduced rate?

Canada, U.S. officials resume talks as clock ticks down on new tariff deadline — The Globe and Mail

Ottawa has asked provinces to put U.S. alcohol back on shelves as part of deal, but premiers have not confirmed buy-in

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Nations outside North America view these bilateral clashes—and challenges to agreements like CUSMA—as indicators of how future global trade rules, protectionism, and retaliatory tariffs will be handled worldwide.

Would this be part of the reason for the Trumpian threats against any retaliation to his coercively draconian Soprano-like negotiating tactics?

Our (Canada’s) reaction is the precedent for other sovereign nations that Trump is dictating terms to going forward.

Donald Trump's trade envoy says the administration will not accept any form of retaliation from Canada if the U.S. president follows through on his latest tariff threat.

Mr. Trump this week has said that, on Canadian tariffs, he would be “reducing it a little bit” and “may bring some of the tariffs down to a level where other countries are.”

Canada, U.S. officials resume talks as clock ticks down on new tariff deadline — The Globe and Mail

Ottawa has asked provinces to put U.S. alcohol back on shelves as part of deal, but premiers have not confirmed buy-in

apple.news

 

[Ron in Regina]

Our (Canada’s) reaction is the precedent for other sovereign nations that Trump is dictating terms to going forward.

Well, it looks ugly for anyone and everyone.

Mr. Trump this week has said that, on Canadian tariffs, he would be “reducing it a little bit” and “may bring some of the tariffs down to a level where other countries are.”

Zero nations can enter trade negotiations with Donald Trump’s United States without facing an asymmetric dynamic. The U.S. strategy explicitly leverages its massive consumer market and unilateral tariffs (such as baseline and sectoral duties) to compel sweeping structural concessions, supply-chain alignments, and investment commitments.

The Asymmetric Reality

• Power Imbalance: Washington dictates terms by initiating broad tariff threats or refusing multi-year extensions on pacts like the United States Trade Representative USMCA framework, forcing smaller or dependent economies onto the defensive.
• Coercive Frameworks: Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) and bilateral frameworks require partners—whether Japan, the European Union, or Mexico—to adopt strict external tariff alignment, investment security rules, and restrictions on third-country trade (targeting China) to mitigate U.S. duties.
• Structural Leverage: Even major economic blocs find that their regulatory autonomy or key export sectors remain under pressure, rendering reciprocal parity virtually unattainable in direct bilateral talks with the Trump administration.

Donald Trump's trade envoy says the administration will not accept any form of retaliation from Canada if the U.S. president follows through on his latest tariff threat.

• The American View: The White House and U.S. trade representatives frame the deal as a major win for American farmers and manufacturers, arguing it eliminates long-standing market barriers.
• The Canadian View: While federal officials maintain they secured the best terms possible under intense pressure, some provincial leaders and labour groups remain skeptical, noting that the asymmetric power dynamic leaves Canada (and pretty much every other sovereign nation on the planet) vulnerable to future shifting demands from Trump’s Washington, or whomever is in charge going forward with this draconian trade example.
  
  
• The Global view?: Divest and diversify away from reliance on U.S. trade to not be put in the same situation Canada had just been demonstrated to be in? This is not a short term accomplishment though. Dabble with the U.S. but as icing and not the cake? The U.S. might become the economic island that Trump wants it to be yet.

Analysts say Mexico watched the Canada-U.S. negotiations with an eye on rules of origin in the automotive sector, which has mushroomed in Mexico over the past 30 years of continental free trade. “Whatever Canada agrees with the U.S. will become the departing point” for Mexico-U.S. talks, said Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, a former Mexican vice-minister of foreign trade and researcher at the Universidad Panamericana in Mexico City.

“We probably have to agree to what we can in order to lower the burden of those tariffs and then live to negotiate another day,” he said of the Mexican negotiating position.

Mexico has been eager to strike a deal with the U.S. to renew the USMCA, which is critical for its manufacturing-for-export economy. The country sends more than 80 per cent of its exports to America. And, unlike Canada, Mexico has not openly courted other countries (yet?) as alternate markets or spoken of ruptures with the U.S.

Mexico is watching Canada-U.S. trade talks closely — The Globe and Mail

Mexico City and Washington have already held three rounds of talks, with a fourth set for September

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“Mexico can’t leave the negotiation table without the USMCA,” said Diego Marroquín, a Mexican trade expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The economy will obviously stagnate without it. … There is no way that they can maintain the current social program structure that has made President Sheinbaum so successful electorally.”

While the U.S. has agreed to more talks in September, some observers caution against reading that as a sign that Mexico is pursuing a more sound strategy than Canada. “Canada is nowhere close to where Mexico is regarding the USMCA review process,” said Arturo Sarukhán, a former Mexican ambassador in Washington. “But at the same time, despite the vindictiveness in the Trump administration and of the President toward Canada, Canada is nowhere as vulnerable politically and diplomatically in terms of hard power than where Mexico is.”