Omnibus Russia Ukraine crisis

Ron in Regina

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President Donald Trump expects his encounter with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week to be a “listening exercise,”
1755158893197.jpegWhite House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday, sharply downplaying the possibility that a deal to end the war in Ukraine could be imminent despite a warning from the president last week that Kyiv needed to “get ready to sign something.” (???)

The lowered expectations for Friday’s meeting in Alaska came as Russia made significant battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine and appeared to be in little mood to offer concessions that might be necessary to achieve a durable halt in the fighting.

Leavitt made clear that the White House intends the summit as an opening face-to-face encounter, and not one that Trump expects will lead to a deal on the spot. Asked whether Trump might be willing to engage on issues that stray from resolving the war, such as thawing trade between Russia and the United States, Leavitt said the president intends to keep the focus on Ukraine.
Maybe he’ll do the mineral deal with Russia?
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Her comments amplified Trump’s remarks at a news conference Monday in which he had already started to dial back expectations, saying that “I may leave and say ‘good luck,’ and that’ll be the end.”

That’s a notably dampened outlook compared with last week, when Trump floated the idea of territorial concessions as part of a peace deal, with Ukraine giving up territory it controls in exchange for Russian pullouts from elsewhere in the country.
Last week, during a meeting with Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, Trump gave a more expansive view of the potential for a deal on the Ukraine war, saying Zelensky needed to stop saying that he wasn’t authorized “to do certain things” under Ukrainian law, such as giving up territory.

“I said, ‘Well, you’re going to have to get it fast because, you know, we’re getting very close to a deal,’” Trump told reporters. “President Zelensky has to get all of his, everything he needs, because he’s going to have to get ready to sign something.”

Zelensky has been less positive about the talks than U.S. officials are.

The Friday meeting is Putin’s “personal victory,” Zelensky told reporters in Ukraine on Tuesday, saying that the Russian president will be able to use it as a photo opportunity to demonstrate his waning isolation. Asked why Zelensky was not being included in Friday’s summit, Leavitt said that it was because Trump “is agreeing to this meeting at the request of President Putin.” She said the hope was that the three leaders could meet together sometime soon.
 

Ron in Regina

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Trump listening should be interesting. And even if he does, will he comprehend?
Maybe, if the topic interests him. The hastily arranged summit, organised at Putin’s request, will be his first invitation to meet a US president on American soil since he visited George W Bush in 2007.

The surprise announcement caught Kyiv and its European allies off guard but for Putin it signals a preliminary diplomatic victory: a face to face with Trump requiring no concessions, and a step towards his goal of deciding Ukraine’s future at the table with Washington.

Key to Putin’s message on Friday will be an appeal to Trump’s business instincts. On Thursday, the Russian president’s adviser Yuri Ushakov said the leaders would discuss the “huge untapped potential” in Russia–US economic relations.

“An exchange of views is expected on further developing bilateral cooperation, including in the trade and economic sphere,” Ushakov said. “This cooperation has huge and, unfortunately so far, untapped potential.”
Reports — not denied by Washington — suggest that Trump might offer Moscow full control of Donetsk and the smaller neighbouring Luhansk region. In exchange, Moscow could offer a ceasefire and the freezing of the front line in other Ukrainian regions, as well as the retreat from tiny toeholds in Sumy and the northeastern Kharkiv region, according to the reports
Bullshit. The "mineral deal" revolves around Donetsk.
Maybe he’ll do the mineral deal with Russia?
Notably, alongside a cadre of veteran diplomats, Putin is bringing two prominent economic advisers. The inclusion of the finance minister, Anton Siluanov, is particularly notable: he has led Russia’s response to western sanctions, the removal of which the Kremlin has consistently set as a key condition for any peace deal.

Details of that meeting remain murky and at times contradictory. Witkoff, who often travels to Russia alone and without his own translators, is believed to have floated a proposal for Kyiv to cede full control of two regions in eastern Ukraine – Luhansk and Donetsk – in exchange for a ceasefire. Luhansk is almost completely occupied by Russia but Ukraine still controls a large portion of Donetsk, which it would have to voluntarily give up under this plan.
Witkoff initially told European partners that Russia was prepared to give up the territory it controlled in southern Ukraine. But after further talks with European leaders, it emerged that Moscow had no intention of ceding any land; instead it insisted that Kyiv surrender the areas it holds in the Donbas in return for a ceasefire that would lock in the frontlines elsewhere.

In Alaska (or Russia, depending on who’s talking about this meeting), Putin is likely to push for full control and US recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian territory, two sources in Moscow said.
(YouTube & Trump says he's meeting with Putin in Russia, but their summit is in Alaska)
 

petros

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Maybe, if the topic interests him. The hastily arranged summit, organised at Putin’s request, will be his first invitation to meet a US president on American soil since he visited George W Bush in 2007.

The surprise announcement caught Kyiv and its European allies off guard but for Putin it signals a preliminary diplomatic victory: a face to face with Trump requiring no concessions, and a step towards his goal of deciding Ukraine’s future at the table with Washington.

Key to Putin’s message on Friday will be an appeal to Trump’s business instincts. On Thursday, the Russian president’s adviser Yuri Ushakov said the leaders would discuss the “huge untapped potential” in Russia–US economic relations.

“An exchange of views is expected on further developing bilateral cooperation, including in the trade and economic sphere,” Ushakov said. “This cooperation has huge and, unfortunately so far, untapped potential.”



Notably, alongside a cadre of veteran diplomats, Putin is bringing two prominent economic advisers. The inclusion of the finance minister, Anton Siluanov, is particularly notable: he has led Russia’s response to western sanctions, the removal of which the Kremlin has consistently set as a key condition for any peace deal.

Details of that meeting remain murky and at times contradictory. Witkoff, who often travels to Russia alone and without his own translators, is believed to have floated a proposal for Kyiv to cede full control of two regions in eastern Ukraine – Luhansk and Donetsk – in exchange for a ceasefire. Luhansk is almost completely occupied by Russia but Ukraine still controls a large portion of Donetsk, which it would have to voluntarily give up under this plan.
Witkoff initially told European partners that Russia was prepared to give up the territory it controlled in southern Ukraine. But after further talks with European leaders, it emerged that Moscow had no intention of ceding any land; instead it insisted that Kyiv surrender the areas it holds in the Donbas in return for a ceasefire that would lock in the frontlines elsewhere.

In Alaska (or Russia, depending on who’s talking about this meeting), Putin is likely to push for full control and US recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian territory, two sources in Moscow said.
(YouTube & Trump says he's meeting with Putin in Russia, but their summit is in Alaska)
Those extra cops and NG in DC will come in handy when the draft is announced on Saturday.
 
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Ron in Regina

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Today is the Putin/Trump meeting in Russia/Alaska.
(YouTube & TRUMP PUTIN ALASKA MEETING LIVE | Trump ends Russia Ukraine War With Putin In Alaska Summit? N18G)

After initially playing down the summit as a “feel-out meeting,” Trump in recent days has said he would urge Putin to accept a cease-fire in Ukraine, seeking to jump-start long-stalled negotiations.

If Putin agrees, Trump says he will bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into the talks, potentially flying him to Alaska for in-depth conversations about a longer term peace agreement involving territorial concessions, security guarantees for Ukraine, and U.S. arm sales to Kyiv.

Should Putin balk, Trump is threatening Moscow with “very severe consequences,” possibly including sanctions on major buyers of Russian oil, such as China. The U.S. could also decide to withdraw from the peace process altogether, he said, leaving Moscow and Kyiv to continue the conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Trump has made such threats before and backed away from them, leaving Putin an opening he can try to exploit in their discussions.

Putin and his top aides Thursday said that they planned to discuss trade and arms-control issues, giving Trump added incentive not to let Ukraine interfere with the larger U.S.-Russia relationship.
 

Ron in Regina

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Zelenskyy wasn’t invited. Ukraine says it has conducted a long-range drone attack on a supply ship that it claims was carrying drone components from Iran, striking it at a port north of the Caspian Sea, in a show of force hours before Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet for a summit in Alaska.
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Photographs showed a partially sunken cargo vessel at Olya, near Astrakhan, more than 500 miles from the frontline. Ukraine’s military claimed credit for the attack and the overnight bombing of an oil refinery at Samara on the Volga River, deep inside Russia. Guess this’ll give Putin & Trump something to talk about.
Ukraine’s general staff said the ship hit, the Port Olya-4, was “loaded with components” for Shahed-type drones “and ammunition from Iran”. The port, it added, was an “important logistics hub for the supply of military goods”.
(YouTube & Putin and Trump reach major deal in Alaska)
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Ron in Regina

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The early signs were positive – a warm handshake, a ride along in “The Beast” and the claim by Russia that talks could last “six or seven hours”.

But that feeling came to a screeching halt inside the press tent at the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, when a press conference was called just three hours in – and it emerged that the wider bilateral talks had been scrapped.

The two leaders appeared on stage for just 12 minutes. There was no ceasefire and they did not take a single question.

“What the f--- was that?” one American journalist exclaimed. “Is that all?” Indeed, it was.
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Tecumsehsbones

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The early signs were positive – a warm handshake, a ride along in “The Beast” and the claim by Russia that talks could last “six or seven hours”.

But that feeling came to a screeching halt inside the press tent at the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, when a press conference was called just three hours in – and it emerged that the wider bilateral talks had been scrapped.

The two leaders appeared on stage for just 12 minutes. There was no ceasefire and they did not take a single question.
On the upside, all indications are that Trump got a "Satisfactory" on his performance review from his boss.
 

Ron in Regina

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On the upside, all indications are that Trump got a "Satisfactory" on his performance review from his boss.
Putin welcomed Trump to Alaska.
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“We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed to,” Trump said. “There are just a very few that are left, some are not that significant, one is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there.”

Well, that clears up everything.
 
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spaminator

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The early signs were positive – a warm handshake, a ride along in “The Beast” and the claim by Russia that talks could last “six or seven hours”.

But that feeling came to a screeching halt inside the press tent at the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, when a press conference was called just three hours in – and it emerged that the wider bilateral talks had been scrapped.

The two leaders appeared on stage for just 12 minutes. There was no ceasefire and they did not take a single question.

“What the f--- was that?” one American journalist exclaimed. “Is that all?” Indeed, it was.
View attachment 30620
because that worked so well the last time. :rolleyes:
 

Ron in Regina

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Surprise…surprise…(not surprised). President Donald Trump dropped his demand for a ceasefire in Ukraine and told its president Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine’s eastern Donbas area in exchange for halting the war.

Hours after Trump and Putin met Friday in Alaska, Trump said Ukraine and Russia should go straight to negotiating a settlement, a split with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies that aligns the United States with Putin.
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Zelensky has rejected Russian demands to cede Ukrainian land. The Ukrainian leader and his European partners, including the leaders of Britain, France and Germany, had lobbied the White House to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire before any negotiations.

After the summit, Trump told Zelensky and other European leaders in a phone call that in addition to land Russia has seized in the war, Putin wants Ukraine to cede all of Donbas in exchange for a promise to freeze the front line elsewhere, according to four people familiar with the discussion. All spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

Putin told a meeting of top Russian officials on Saturday that the summit with Trump was “very useful” and “in my opinion, it brings us closer to the right decisions.” He said he told Trump that settling “root causes” — his demands that Ukraine be demilitarized and barred from joining NATO — “must be at the heart of any possible agreement.”

“It’s really up to President Zelensky to get it done,” Trump said. “I would also say the European nations, they have to get involved a little bit.”

Putting the onus on Zelensky leaves the Ukrainian leader in a delicate position, as all sides maneuver to avoid being seen as hindering Trump’s push for a peace deal.

Although polls show that war-weary Ukrainians increasingly favor a settlement, it would be difficult for Kyiv to sell giving away territory — home to hundreds of thousands of people, and where forces built up defensive lines for years — for an undefined truce.

One of the people familiar with the talks said Ukraine would not relinquish Donetsk because it would leave Ukraine wide open to future attacks. “If [Putin] takes over Donbas, he has a clear road all the way to Odesa.”
 
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Ron in Regina

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Anyway, Trump on Sunday promised "BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA" in a social media post without specifying what this might be.

Sources briefed on Moscow's thinking told Reuters the U.S. and Russian leaders have discussed proposals for Russia to relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine in exchange for Kyiv ceding a swathe of fortified land in the east and freezing the front lines elsewhere.

Top Trump officials hinted the fate of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region - which incorporates Donetsk and Luhansk and which is already mostly under Russian control - was on the line, while some sort of defensive pact was also on the table.

"We were able to win the following concession, that the United States could offer Article 5-like protection," Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, suggesting this would be in lieu of Ukraine seeking NATO membership. He said it was "the first time we had ever heard the Russians agree to that."

(I’m assuming Russia absolutely did not agree to the above, but it makes for a good sound bite at this point)

Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty enshrines the principle of collective defense, the notion that an attack on a single member is considered an attack on them all. That pledge may not be enough to sway leaders in Kyiv to sign over Donbas.

Ukraine's borders were already meant to have been guaranteed when Ukraine surrendered a Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in 1994, and it proved to be little deterrent when Russia absorbed Crimea in 2014 and then launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. The war has now dragged on for 3-1/2 years and killed or wounded more than 1 million people.