Biden’s bad debate gives third-party candidates hope
Author of the article:Washington Post
Washington Post
Theodoric Meyer, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Alec Dent
Published Jul 03, 2024 • 4 minute read
Former president Donald Trump isn’t the only presidential candidate seeking to turn President Biden’s stumbling debate performance last week to his advantage.
Some third-party candidates say they believe Biden’s disastrous debate could help them win over voters who are wary of supporting the president but can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump.
It could take weeks before enough polls conducted since Thursday evening’s debate come out to determine whether Biden’s struggles have helped third-party candidates. But several of them cited anecdotal evidence of new enthusiasm since the debate.
Green Party candidate Jill Stein said that her campaign has seen an uptick in donations and that a virtual event she held on Friday drew the biggest audience she has seen to date.
Stein said the debate reminded her of when Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016 after a bruising primary, leading some disappointed supporters to consider Stein.
“There was a huge outpouring of interest in our campaign,” she said. “This is kind of like that now.”
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party nominee, said he spoke with two or three dozen voters at the Houston Pride parade on Saturday who were considering breaking with Biden.
“So many voters came up and said things like, ‘After that debate, man, I’m looking for other options,’ ‘I’m ready to vote for you,’ or ‘I’m going to give you an honest look because I just can’t with Biden anymore after the debate,'” Oliver said.
And Edwin DeJesus, a spokesman for the independent candidate Cornel West, said the campaign “absolutely [believes] the debate gives Dr. West an opening to exposure for more voters seeking a real alternative to the two-party system.”
Fighting third parties
Stein, Oliver, West and the independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are wild cards in the presidential race. They have no chance of winning the White House, but they command enough support to change the outcome of the race if it remains exceedingly tight.
Kennedy has the support of 7 percent of registered voters, according to a Washington Post average of national polls conducted last month, although some swing-state polls have found his support in the double-digits. Stein and West each command about 1 percent support, according to the average.
Stein won about 51,000 votes in Michigan when she was the Green Party nominee in 2016 and about 31,000 votes in Wisconsin – surpassing Trump’s margin of victory in each state.
Democrats have responded by organizing an unprecedented effort to convince voters to resist the temptation to support third-party candidates. The Democratic National Committee debuted a TV ad on Monday warning that “a vote for Stein, West or RFK Jr. is a vote for Trump.” The DNC created a dedicated team months ago to fight the third-party threat, and it’s staffed by more than a dozen people, including lawyers and consultants who also work on other efforts.
Democrats have challenged Stein, West and Kennedy’s efforts to get on the ballot in some states, including a lawsuit that Clear Choice Action, a Democratic super PAC focused on third-party candidates, filed against Kennedy’s campaign on Monday in Illinois. Another outside group, Third Way, has helped coordinate efforts to convince voters that “Jill Stein is a Russian asset and that RFK is a right-wing loon,” as Matt Bennett, Third Way’s executive vice president, put it.
Bennett said he was “very worried” that Biden’s debate performance would lead some voters to consider backing third-party candidates.
“It is our job over the next four months to convince them not to do that,” Bennett said.
The bigger danger
Kennedy is polling much stronger than other third-party candidates – but some Democrats say Stein and West, who are running to Biden’s left, are at least as much of a danger.
“Even if [Stein and West are] only getting a point or two, I think whatever the Green Party gets, whatever Cornel West gets is coming disproportionately out of Biden’s vote share,” the Democratic pollster Zac McCrary said.
“All three are a challenge, but combined, West and Stein are probably taking as many or more votes from Biden than Kennedy is,” Pete Kavanaugh, a deputy manager on Biden’s 2020 campaign who leads Clear Choice Action, wrote to Washington Post reporters.
Trump seemed to agree, praising Stein and West at a rally last month in Philadelphia.
“I like her very much,” Trump said, referring to Stein. “You know why? She takes 100 percent from them. [West] takes 100 percent. Kennedy’s probably 50-50, but he’s a fake.”
Debate impact
Getting on the ballot is time-consuming and expensive in some states, and it won’t be clear which candidates will be on which ballots until late August or early September, Kavanaugh said.
But he’s skeptical the debate will help third-party candidates. “I don’t think it changes anything with the third-party dynamic,” Kavanaugh said. “They were a factor before, and they still are.”
Trump’s campaign also disputed that Biden’s debate performance would help his third-party rivals.
“The only candidate who is surging because of his dominant debate performance is President Donald J. Trump,” Karoline Leavitt, a Trump campaign spokeswoman, told The Post.
"There was a huge outpouring of interest in our campaign," she said. "This is kind of like that now."
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