Canada’s population is booming – and we aren’t building nearly enough homes
- Thread starter The_Foxer
- Start date
Can't import 400 000+ immigrants and not expect housing problems. Especially in areas where building permits are scarcer than trustworthy politicians.
Chris Selley: We're not even close to ready for the population growth we're getting — National Post
This isn’t an issue that some backroom genius can spin away. It’s visceral for everyone, from aspiring homeowners to long-time renters to would-be immigrantsapple.news
Maybe it was a while ago when I fished but do recall that they had a couple of boats fishing for them .
Well, the reverse of that is you can bring in 400k along with the other increases in your population BUT - you DO have to plan for the problems and deal with that.
We should almost have a law that says max immigration allowed at any time has to be equal to the new homes etc that we have to support them. Want to bring in 400k new people? FIne - we need to have 300 k homes above our current needs coming online when they get here. Otherwise, nope.
And a similar number being born.
Here's Canada's population growth Currently:
Canada Population Growth Rate 1950-2025
Chart and table of Canada population from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.
And that's with much much less immigration due to covid. As you can see we were adding 1.3 percent per year before covid, and it looks like we'll finish 2022 with close to 1 percent growth. However, immigration is expected to ramp up again (that's the "400,000" figure we've been talking about for 2023-24)
Here's some longer range projections from statcat:
Canada's population could nearly double over the next 50 years
A new report from Statistics Canada suggests that immigration will continue to boost the country's population in coming decades, to the tune of rough…
www.blogto.com
As you can see even the 'medium' projections of population growth have us growing a total NET amount (that's after deaths and births) by an average of about 1.1 million people per year.
Canada’s population growth at highest level in more than 30 years
As of April 1, 2022, Canada’s population was estimated to be nearly 39 million people. This is a population increase of nearly 128,000 people over three months from January 1. This marks the highest rate of growth in the first quarter of a year since 1990 and is a continuation of the high...
www.cicnews.com
Population and demography statistics
Indicators, data and detailed analysis related to Canadian demographics, from a wide set of data sources including population estimates and projections, and the census.
All of which means we need to be building around about 600,000 homes a year on average. We MIGHT be able to squeak by with 500k IF we do some planning and make sure the mix of home sizes is right (they can't all be one bedroom apartments, and they can't all be 6000 ft luxury homes).
We currently build about 275 thousand, and some of those use land with existing homes on them so we decommission a few as well.
I know you like to think there's no problem here but.... there's a problem here.
Babies dont buy houses. 1.47 births per woman is a negative growth rates. Gotta have 2 minimum for replacement.
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They do when they grow up. Which is the problem we're seeing now - millenials and gen x'ers have no homes they can afford to buy because they're priced out of the market due to a lack of supply. In fact, among that group home ownership is the lowest it's ever been and getting worse.
But more importantly - their parents do. A 1 bedroom place may have been plenty for mom and dad when they were just a couple, but with 1 or 2 kids it's not viable. So they have to move to something bigger - and if there ISN'T something bigger available..... that's a problem.
And of course most of our population growth is from immigrants. And it may shock you to learn most people applying for immigration aren't' babies anymore.
I know you like to think there isn't a problem. There's a problem.
Goal post movement....
30 years from now when boomers and Gen X are long gone
Will they spit out 2 full kids to replace themselves?
There's no goal post movement in the slightest. At any given time a percent of our population is young, medium and old. That's an ongoing cycle. Babies still need a home to live in.
Not even the boomers will be gone by that point. And the gen x will be retirement age but most of them will be alive in 30 years. Gen x ended in the early 80s, Those guys are in their 40's, they're not likely to be dead by 70.
No - we'll immigrate replacements. That's what's happening now.
SIgh. This is going to be another case where you can't get your head around the basic facts isn't it. I've shown you the population growth stats, and it had average age breakdowns there, so clearly you are bound and determined to stick your fingers in your ears and lie to yourself and anyone who says different.
Well i've learned that trying to explain things to you when you get like that is about as useful as explaining to a 'trans person' that they're still biologically a man/woman. Easier just to humour them.
So sure - We'll have PLENTY of homes because BABIES DON"T BUY HOMES!!!! For sure!! Also all the boomers and gen x will all be dead within 30 years so we'll have their homes. ! Why not? There's TONNES of homes now, no shortages!! ANd if there is a shortage, people don't mind not having a place to live!
See? You were right all along!! Well done.
OH - ABSOLUTELY!!! Statcan has NO idea what they're talking about. We're only getting a TOTAL of 93 thousand new canadians per year, everyone knows that! You're a mathimatical genus, you've just solved the housing crisis!! THANKS Petros!!!
Sure, absolutely if you say so!!! I trust you over statcan any day. Your math skills are unparallelled - thank god we have you!
Stats Can says 1.47 births per woman. Stats Can say 307 000 kick the bucket. Is 93,000 enough to replace the 0.53 not being replaced by birth?
You're WAY smarter than them! And for SURE we're not going to have ANY immigration so absolutely we're only going to have a population growth of 93,000! You're amazing - we'll TOTALLY have enough homes now!! You should be prime minister!