Canada’s population is booming – and we aren’t building nearly enough homes

[The_Foxer]

archive.ph

Canada’s population is about to boom. And Canada isn’t ready.
Last month, Statistics Canada released a report showing this country’s population has recently been growing at almost double the rate of the rest of the G7. The agency also expects that trend to accelerate, because of the Trudeau government’s history of, and plans for, high and rising immigration. Statscan’s medium-growth outlook sees today’s population of 38 million rising by 10 million by 2043. Its high-growth forecast is a population of more than 52 million. Both of those mean growth well above even the swift pace of recent years.
Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia are going to become home to most of these new Canadians. Statscan’s high-growth forecast sees more than two million new people in B.C., nearly three million new Albertans and more than six million more Ontarians.

Canada’s municipalities and provinces are acting like they are blissfully unaware of any of this. Civic policies, notably around housing, are still stuck in the past, with most residential land restricted to low-density homes.

This is absolutely brutal. If people think "climate change" is a serious threat, this is far far more so and it's barely being acknowledged by gov'ts.

And home construction is actually slowing right now thanks to interest changes and uncertainty.

But it doesn't end there. We're not even talking about the fact that we're not building out our schools, definitely not building our medical infrasturcture such as hospitals or doctors, or other support services anywhere nearly fast enough to even keep pace never mind catch up from where they're behind.

All of that stuff takes many years just to complete even if the process is begun today, 2 - 3 years for a home, 10 years or more for a school or a hospital etc.

I can't say this any more clearly - our system is about to collapse in the next 5 years or so (and is on the edge of it now) and the politicians know it and are doing NOTHING. That's on the federal and provincial level. Meanwhile trudeau has borrowed every penny we can afford to so there will be no massive amounts of cash available to fix it.

If we don't start screaming at our various levels and getting people involved we're going to be in REAL trouble in half a decade and I don't know what's going to happen. When new immigrants and young canadians can't get the basics of medicine, education, can't find a roof to put over their heads, i think that we're going to see more than just discontent.

 

[Wise]

I guess I don't care about it. I just care about myself always having a big beautiful home.

Or, I might be just a hobo that borrowed someone's cellphone to post this message here. You never know.

 

[The_Foxer]

I guess I don't care about it. I just care about myself always having a big beautiful home.

Or, I might be just a hobo that borrowed someone's cellphone to post this message here. You never know.

I have a funny feeling that even people with big beautiful homes and hobo's are going to start caring about it more and more. The BBH types are going to find they can't get their medical services and that a lot of the "urban camping" types are suddenly moving into their areas and the hobos are currently dying in record numbers from drug overdoses and nobody gives a crap and as medical resources get more and more strained they're going to find it all but impossible to get help either.

THen protests and then confrontations and then public unrest and it's not going to be a pretty picture.

 

[Ron in Regina]

Had a lot of “Urban Campers” Rolling through and still in our neighbourhood in the last year or two.

Three doors up the street we had squatters and junkies move in and they had two house-fires before they burnt the house down completely and it was ripped down…& then they moved into that garage before it became a burnt out shell that’s been more or less secured for the last year….& The owner of the property has abandoned it.


Then a house across the street that had an older gentleman living in it for the last couple years…. he developed a drug habit apparently and had about 25 other people move in with him and into his garage….& he ended up getting evicted in March and there’s been squatters coming and going breaking in ever since….& that house was on fire six hours ago. The owner of that property has abandoned it.

All I can say is those weeds are taller than the Firefighters.

Directly across the alley from that place squatters and junkies took over a different place and that garage burnt down last week…. and then the squatters just started throwing their garbage into the burnt out garage from the house. Good times…. The owner of that property seems to have abandoned it.


Been try’n to work with whatever tools are available (within the boundaries of the law) to deal with this but getting tired of it. I’m much more concerned about this than theoretical global warming/cooling/changing.


For comparison, this is our humble home:

 

[petros]

Hmmmmm

Canada Suffers Slowest Population Growth Since World War I

Canada’s population grew at the slowest pace in more than a century as Covid-related restrictions curbed immigration.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[The_Foxer]

Hmmmmm

Yeah. For about one year immigration nosedived because of covid. Now it's back because covid is over.

And if you look at the 5 year trend we're still at the very top of the G7 in population growth for that timestretch, even with covid.

 

[petros]

It's not really a population boom as in new born, just immigration, a number that can be controlled.

 

[The_Foxer]

It's not really a population boom as in new born, just immigration, a number that can be controlled.

It's currently "being controlled" at about 400 k per year. That's kind of the point, regardless of how population is growing it's growing at a very fast rate. And we are not coming close to keeping up with the infrastructure or homes needed to accommodate that.

Now i suppose next year trudeau could drop immigration to zero till we catch up. But does that seem very likely to you?

If things continue at the current rate by the time it becomes completely out of control it will take a decade to fix - and at that point i think we're going to see some very very serious consequences.

But hey, maybe you're right. Maybe trudeau will see the light and throttle things back right away till we can catch up.

 

[petros]

400K per year is doable in Canada, just not in kToronto and Vancouver. Incentives for settling where populations or cities are ripe for attrition.

$30K houses are sitting abandoned or burned out in my neighbourhood like Ron's. Regina isn't the only city with this issue.

 

[The_Foxer]

400K per year is doable in Canada, just not in Toronto and Vancouver. Incentives for move were populations are cities are ripe for attrition.

I'd have to see some sort of evidence to back that thinking up. Maybe there's some provinces that could but bc? They're already closing down er rooms and medical services in MANY small communities and frankly housing and rent in most of them is outrageously high and scarce for the wage base as it is. You can't dump people somewhere that there isn't jobs and such. If the price of a home is 20 percent less but the average income is 50 percent less that's not going to work.

Seems like ontario is in the same boat at the moment, pei and most of the maritimes, Manitoba (not to mention lack of work) MAYBE alberta but there's no way they can take even half the numbers trudeau is talking about so that doesn't help. I mean seriously - edmonton has a million people, you can't increase that by 25 percent a year, it wouldn't be remotely possible without a massive building and infrastructure plan.

And the reality is you can't really incentivize people to move to small communities where they have no supports or work or the like. they'll quickly move to larger communities.

I don't see any evidence that significant amounts of people could be successfully settled in the smaller communities in any numbers that would prevent a catastrophe. As it is people already living here are moving out to the more rural and suburban communities in large numbers and that's not making the problem go away.

 

[petros]

In theory and with planning the immigrants we bring in should be selfsustaing within a community as well as beneficial to the current populus. If a growing region is troubling with attracting labour, the proportion of professions needed for the region should exceed the demand of the labour (if the region needs it) and sent with the labour.

And yes there is infill potential galore in Canadian cities. BC too.

 

[The_Foxer]

In theory and with planning the immigrants we bring in should be selfsustaing within a community as well as beneficial to the current populus. If a growing region is troubling with attracting labour, the proportion of professions needed for the region should exceed the demand of the labour (if the region needs it) and sent with the labour.

Well absolutely. And it shouldn't even be that hard to do. But at the moment there's a severe disconnect there, the feds are accelerating immigration and neither they nor the provinces are doing anything at all to make sure there's sufficient infrastructure for the new arrivals. It's almost like we need some sort of law that says you can have as many immigrants as you want but no more than we've built the new infrastructure to accept.

Don't get me wrong - i'm pro immigration. But - there has to be some where for them to live. And doctors and such as well.

And yes there is infill potential galore in Canadian cities. BC too.

Well that doesn't seem to be true. Not on the scales required. And i noticed you didn't manage to find any data to support that.

 

[Ron in Regina]

400K per year is doable in Canada, just not in kToronto and Vancouver. Incentives for settling where populations or cities are ripe for attrition.

$30K houses are sitting abandoned or burned out in my neighbourhood like Ron's. Regina isn't the only city with this issue.

Currently absolute Shit is priced more than 30K but shouldn’t be.


This is one week to the day before this property was lit on fire by the squatters inside of it. Whoopsies!!

(How many firefighters are actually in the picture above?)

That’s my girl in the picture for perspective, & that’s as far if she would go to the yard due to being creeped out.

 

[petros]

Well absolutely. And it shouldn't even be that hard to do. But at the moment there's a severe disconnect there, the feds are accelerating immigration and neither they nor the provinces are doing anything at all to make sure there's sufficient infrastructure for the new arrivals. It's almost like we need some sort of law that says you can have as many immigrants as you want but no more than we've built the new infrastructure to accept.

Don't get me wrong - i'm pro immigration. But - there has to be some where for them to live. And doctors and such as well.


Well that doesn't seem to be true. Not on the scales required. And i noticed you didn't manage to find any data to support that.

Currently absolute Shit is priced more than 30K but shouldn’t be.
View attachment 15722
View attachment 15723
This is one week to the day before this property was lit on fire by the squatters inside of it. Whoopsies!!
View attachment 15724
(How many firefighters are actually in the picture above?)
View attachment 15725
That’s my girl in the picture for perspective, & that’s as far if she would go to the yard due to being creeped out.

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3 houses and 1 lot on my block up for grabs. $16000 for the lot

$16,000

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Regina, Saskatchewan S4T2N5​

MLS® Number: SK883325
Century 21 Dome Realty Inc.



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Description​

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[The_Foxer]

Well exactly.

The idea that somehow an abandoned home can just magically be tenanted, or that they don't cost money to buy, is laughable.

It's not the 60 grand you'd need to buy the property, it's the 300 grand and 1 year wait you'd have to put up with to build a livable dwelling on it.

And regina isn't absorbing more than a handful at the best of times. With a 216k population they can MAYBE manage an additional increase of 5 - 10 k per year, and after a few years of that unless someone's been doing some serious building and hiring of medical staff and teachers etc that will overload it as well. And how's the job market there? Will there be the 15- 30 thousand new living wage jobs available over that time?

And no offense but what percent of the immigrants do you think want to start building their new lives in Regina?

Canada cannot absorb that many people at all unless we start to radically improve infrastructure.

 

[The_Foxer]

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3 houses and 1 lot on my block up for grabs. $12000 for the lot

uhhh - thats 216 properties. Most of which will be already needed and bought by people living in Canada. The fact that a house is for sale doesn't mean it's not currently occupied - which means that for that unit to sell another unit is going to be taken. Sooooo - what's your point? Did you think they were all empty and we could move 216 people in overnight?

And again - total population growth is expected to be between 400 and 600 thousand. Sooo - great, that's 216 down... where's the rest going?

 

[petros]

Uhhhh there is more than one city and town in Canada.

 

[petros]

Well exactly.

The idea that somehow an abandoned home can just magically be tenanted, or that they don't cost money to buy, is laughable.

It's not the 60 grand you'd need to buy the property, it's the 300 grand and 1 year wait you'd have to put up with to build a livable dwelling on it.

And regina isn't absorbing more than a handful at the best of times. With a 216k population they can MAYBE manage an additional increase of 5 - 10 k per year, and after a few years of that unless someone's been doing some serious building and hiring of medical staff and teachers etc that will overload it as well. And how's the job market there? Will there be the 15- 30 thousand new living wage jobs available over that time?

And no offense but what percent of the immigrants do you think want to start building their new lives in Regina?

Canada cannot absorb that many people at all unless we start to radically improve infrastructure.

Reality is that lot can have a 4 pkex in 90 days IF there was a will. 4 families of 3 is 12 on one lot.

 

[The_Foxer]

Reality is that lot can have a 4 pkex in 90 days IF there was a will. 4 families of 3 is 12 on one lot.

I doubt you could get the planning permits done in 90 days. I seriously question if you could even get the architect drawings done in that time.

According to some of the local regina custom home builders it takes between 10 - 16 months just for the construction, and that does not take into account "a number of factors" which can add an undetermined additional time. I would assume that being local builders they would know. And that still doesn't cover the permit process.

Costs Associated to Building Custom Regina Home - Leenan Homes

Looking to build the home of your dreams but don't know what costs to consider? Leenan Homes has a guide to help!

leenanhomes.com

4 plexes would be even more complicated.'

As it is, in total there are not enough homes. Reports done show that canada wide we built 100,thousand fewer homes PER YEAR than we needed to from at least 2016 onward just to keep pace, and we were already low to begin with.

Estimating the Structural Housing Shortage in Canada: Are We 100 Thousand or Nearly 2 Million Units Short?

www.scotiabank.com

And that's canada wide - so in other words, even if we evened out the people with the homes and magically made them all match up - we still wouldnt' have enough.

And construction has slowed down again.

Canadian New Home Construction Begins To Slow As Forecasts Call Fewer Starts - Better Dwelling

Canadian new housing construction is slowing, but remains above pre-pandemic levels. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data shows new housing starts slowed in January 2022. The number of new homes to start construction fell below last year’s level. Financial institutions forecast...

betterdwelling.com

now - remember home building for developers is about a 3 year cycle. so stuff getting started today is usually stuff they committed to some time ago. Sometimes they can decide not to start right away but - the bottom line is with interest rates volatile and a recession being predicted we'll likely see more slowdowns before we see things pick up. ANd - at the same time our population increase is accelerating.

And again we haven't touched on medical or schools - most of the provinces are already strained to the breaking point with not enough doctors or nurses or facilities. So - adding ANY people until that changes further puts massive strain on the system that's already at the breaking point.

This is a very serious problem.

 

[The_Foxer]

Uhhhh there is more than one city and town in Canada

Sure - and if we add them alllllll up, and add up the people coming in - there's not enough. Regina is one of our larger ones and as you've shown - there's really no room. 215 homes even if they WERE all empty would be nothing.