PC majority in Provincial election 2022
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Uninspiring choices to blame for Ontario's record-low voter turnout?
Only 43 per cent of voters participated. “I don’t think anybody would be really happy with that number”: Pollster
Author of the article:Scott Laurie
Publishing date:Jun 03, 2022 • 11 hours ago • 2 minute read • Join the conversation
After an election with Ontario’s lowest ever voter turnout that surprised even some pollsters, Premier Doug Ford said he has a strong mandate and plans to govern for all Ontarians.
At his post victory news conference Friday after winning a landslide majority, the Progressive Conservative Leader was asked about whether the low voter participation dilutes the scale or legitimacy of his victory.
“I think it’s pretty clear that people gave us a mandate – with 83 seats. And we are going to focus on our mandate,” Ford said.
But with turnout plummeting down to 43%, many voters did not feel inspired or inclined to vote.
“There was nobody worth voting for. That’s why I didn’t vote,” said Maria Carter.
“Looking at what we had to vote for, do you go with Ford? Do you go with the other guy, who we don’t even know who these people are,” said Bill Bowe.
The low turnout surprised even one pollster.
“Our numbers were showing voter turnout was going to be at around 50%,” said Andrew Enns, Executive V.P., Leger. “Which I thought – ‘Wow, that’s pretty low.’”
The firm tracked voter intentions throughout the month-long campaign.
“I don’t think anybody would be really happy with that number,” said Enns. “You definitely want to see a higher engagement. It provides a greater degree of legitimacy.”
The poor turnout this year was dramatically lower than the last election in 2018 when 56.6% of eligible voters cast ballots.
Just over 10.7 million people were eligible in Thursday’s election. But only 4.7 million cast a ballot.
“There wasn’t serious awareness. But I personally voted,” said Yusuf Ali, who never received a voter registration card but registered in person on election day. “There were a lot of young people who were not at the polls when I was there.”
“People didn’t want to vote because it was a silent protest,” said Hamda Ali, who also voted. “Most of them didn’t even know. Too stressed, too busy.”
A number of factors may have been in play — from opposition parties that did not capture the broader attention of voters, to the impact of COVID-19.
“I think the pandemic may have had an influence,” said Enns from Leger. “There are some people who aren’t super anxious to get out into the public and engage or stand in a lineup.”
slaurie@postmedia.com
torontosun.com
Only 43 per cent of voters participated. “I don’t think anybody would be really happy with that number”: Pollster
Author of the article:Scott Laurie
Publishing date:Jun 03, 2022 • 11 hours ago • 2 minute read • Join the conversation
After an election with Ontario’s lowest ever voter turnout that surprised even some pollsters, Premier Doug Ford said he has a strong mandate and plans to govern for all Ontarians.
At his post victory news conference Friday after winning a landslide majority, the Progressive Conservative Leader was asked about whether the low voter participation dilutes the scale or legitimacy of his victory.
“I think it’s pretty clear that people gave us a mandate – with 83 seats. And we are going to focus on our mandate,” Ford said.
But with turnout plummeting down to 43%, many voters did not feel inspired or inclined to vote.
“There was nobody worth voting for. That’s why I didn’t vote,” said Maria Carter.
“Looking at what we had to vote for, do you go with Ford? Do you go with the other guy, who we don’t even know who these people are,” said Bill Bowe.
The low turnout surprised even one pollster.
“Our numbers were showing voter turnout was going to be at around 50%,” said Andrew Enns, Executive V.P., Leger. “Which I thought – ‘Wow, that’s pretty low.’”
The firm tracked voter intentions throughout the month-long campaign.
“I don’t think anybody would be really happy with that number,” said Enns. “You definitely want to see a higher engagement. It provides a greater degree of legitimacy.”
The poor turnout this year was dramatically lower than the last election in 2018 when 56.6% of eligible voters cast ballots.
Just over 10.7 million people were eligible in Thursday’s election. But only 4.7 million cast a ballot.
“There wasn’t serious awareness. But I personally voted,” said Yusuf Ali, who never received a voter registration card but registered in person on election day. “There were a lot of young people who were not at the polls when I was there.”
“People didn’t want to vote because it was a silent protest,” said Hamda Ali, who also voted. “Most of them didn’t even know. Too stressed, too busy.”
A number of factors may have been in play — from opposition parties that did not capture the broader attention of voters, to the impact of COVID-19.
“I think the pandemic may have had an influence,” said Enns from Leger. “There are some people who aren’t super anxious to get out into the public and engage or stand in a lineup.”
slaurie@postmedia.com
Uninspiring choices to blame for Ontario's record-low voter turnout?
After an election with Ontario’s lowest ever voter turnout that surprised even some pollsters, Doug Ford said he has a strong mandate.
The low voter turnout is because the vast majority of the population is quite happy with good government and saw no reason to change to something worse.
No, turdOWE won because of the seat distribution system . Conservatives got the majority of the popular vote last three elections. Toronto, for example has more seats than many provinces.We have many ridings that are bigger than the entire GTA, with only one MP. See, there is more than one way to rig an election.
I’m just taking a cooldown break from yardwork so I’m not gonna pull up statistics but Google is all of our friends….
The Conservative Party, Federally, in Canada, did get more votes in the “One Person, One Vote” system that we have than any other party, & the Liberal Party of Canada won these last couple of elections regardless due to seat distribution. That’s what Taxslave is alluding to.
For example If the Liberal Party gets 55% of the votes in 15 ridings in the GTA, & the Conservatives get 85% of the votes in 13 ridings in Saskatchewan…then the Liberals are 2 seats ahead at that point, even though more people (one vote, one person) voted for conservatives collectively…
You think you got problems? Wyoming, with less than 600,000 people, has the same representation in the Senate as California, with 39.5 million.
And a plurality is not a majority. Majority means 50%+1 or more.
Yes but every state has the same representation in the senate . That is not the case in Canada .
There's no Tory dynasty in Ontario and the Liberals aren't dead
Author of the article:Lorrie Goldstein
Publishing date:Jun 04, 2022 • 21 hours ago • 3 minute read • 22 Comments
Premier Doug Ford had an impressive election victory on Thursday, but it’s not the start of a Progressive Conservative dynasty in Ontario and the Liberal Party isn’t going to disappear.
People who think in such politically apocalyptic terms don’t know the history of Ontario politics.
It’s going to be very difficult for the PCs to win a third majority government in 2026, whether Ford is still premier or has retired and been replaced by a successor.
The last time any party in Ontario achieved three majority governments in a row was when John Robarts and the PCs won the 1963 and 1967 elections, followed by Bill Davis winning a third majority in 1971 — 51 years ago.
Davis — Ontario’s longest serving premier in the modern era (1971 to 1985) — never won back-to-back majorities, let alone three in a row.
Following his 1971 majority government, Davis won minority governments in 1975 and 1997, followed by a second majority in 1981.
The last political dynasty in Ontario — 42 years — lasted from 1943 when George Drew was elected premier to 1985, when Davis retired from politics, 37 years ago.
Since then, Ontario voters have elected and defeated Liberal, PC and NDP governments without any enduring loyalty to any one party.
The Liberals’ David Peterson won fewer seats in the 1985 election than PC premier Frank Miller who succeeded Davis (48 for the Liberals, 52 for the PCs).
But Peterson forged an alliance with then NDP leader Bob Rae (whose party won 25 seats in the 1985 election) to become premier.
Peterson’s Liberal government lasted five years — a minority government from 1985 to 1987 followed by a majority from 1987 to 1990 — before being defeated by Rae and the NDP, who won a majority government that lasted from 1990 to 1995.
Rae and the NDP were defeated in 1995 by the PCs’ Mike Harris, who won two majority governments (1995 and 1999) before resigning in 2002, with the party choosing Ernie Eves as his successor.
Eves lost the 2003 election to the Liberals’ Dalton McGuinty, who won two majority governments (2003 and 2007) followed by a minority government in 2011.
McGuinty announced his retirement a year later and was replaced by Kathleen Wynne, who won a majority government, from 2014 to 2018.
Wynne was defeated by Ford and the PCs in 2018, who won a majority government and have now been re-elected with a second majority, which will run until 2026.
The Liberal party isn’t going to disappear, even though it was reduced to seven seats in the 2018 election and added only one more on Thursday, insufficient to achieve official party status which today requires 12 seats.
The NDP lost official party status in the 1999 and 2003 elections and survived to become the official opposition party in the last two elections.
Since the end of the PC dynasty in Ontario in 1985, the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have all been in government, all been the official opposition party and all been the third party in the Legislature.
The reason is that Ontario has a mature three-party system (the Greens having won only one seat in the last two elections).
A more enduring theme in Ontario politics is that voters prefer their provincial government to be of a different political stripe than the federal government — which repeated itself Thursday, with Ford’s victory while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are in power in Ottawa.
lgoldstein@postmedia.com
torontosun.com
Author of the article:Lorrie Goldstein
Publishing date:Jun 04, 2022 • 21 hours ago • 3 minute read • 22 Comments
Premier Doug Ford had an impressive election victory on Thursday, but it’s not the start of a Progressive Conservative dynasty in Ontario and the Liberal Party isn’t going to disappear.
People who think in such politically apocalyptic terms don’t know the history of Ontario politics.
It’s going to be very difficult for the PCs to win a third majority government in 2026, whether Ford is still premier or has retired and been replaced by a successor.
The last time any party in Ontario achieved three majority governments in a row was when John Robarts and the PCs won the 1963 and 1967 elections, followed by Bill Davis winning a third majority in 1971 — 51 years ago.
Davis — Ontario’s longest serving premier in the modern era (1971 to 1985) — never won back-to-back majorities, let alone three in a row.
Following his 1971 majority government, Davis won minority governments in 1975 and 1997, followed by a second majority in 1981.
The last political dynasty in Ontario — 42 years — lasted from 1943 when George Drew was elected premier to 1985, when Davis retired from politics, 37 years ago.
Since then, Ontario voters have elected and defeated Liberal, PC and NDP governments without any enduring loyalty to any one party.
The Liberals’ David Peterson won fewer seats in the 1985 election than PC premier Frank Miller who succeeded Davis (48 for the Liberals, 52 for the PCs).
But Peterson forged an alliance with then NDP leader Bob Rae (whose party won 25 seats in the 1985 election) to become premier.
Peterson’s Liberal government lasted five years — a minority government from 1985 to 1987 followed by a majority from 1987 to 1990 — before being defeated by Rae and the NDP, who won a majority government that lasted from 1990 to 1995.
Rae and the NDP were defeated in 1995 by the PCs’ Mike Harris, who won two majority governments (1995 and 1999) before resigning in 2002, with the party choosing Ernie Eves as his successor.
Eves lost the 2003 election to the Liberals’ Dalton McGuinty, who won two majority governments (2003 and 2007) followed by a minority government in 2011.
McGuinty announced his retirement a year later and was replaced by Kathleen Wynne, who won a majority government, from 2014 to 2018.
Wynne was defeated by Ford and the PCs in 2018, who won a majority government and have now been re-elected with a second majority, which will run until 2026.
The Liberal party isn’t going to disappear, even though it was reduced to seven seats in the 2018 election and added only one more on Thursday, insufficient to achieve official party status which today requires 12 seats.
The NDP lost official party status in the 1999 and 2003 elections and survived to become the official opposition party in the last two elections.
Since the end of the PC dynasty in Ontario in 1985, the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have all been in government, all been the official opposition party and all been the third party in the Legislature.
The reason is that Ontario has a mature three-party system (the Greens having won only one seat in the last two elections).
A more enduring theme in Ontario politics is that voters prefer their provincial government to be of a different political stripe than the federal government — which repeated itself Thursday, with Ford’s victory while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are in power in Ottawa.
lgoldstein@postmedia.com
GOLDSTEIN: There's no Tory dynasty in Ontario and the Liberals aren't dead
Ford had an impressive election victory Thursday, but it's not the start of a PC dynasty and the Liberal Party isn't going to disappear.
Nice back patting from a receiver of Liberal party funds. Although in this election I am inclined to believe the Liberals lost rather than the Conservatives won.There's no Tory dynasty in Ontario and the Liberals aren't dead
Author of the article:Lorrie Goldstein
Publishing date:Jun 04, 2022 • 21 hours ago • 3 minute read • 22 Comments
Premier Doug Ford had an impressive election victory on Thursday, but it’s not the start of a Progressive Conservative dynasty in Ontario and the Liberal Party isn’t going to disappear.
People who think in such politically apocalyptic terms don’t know the history of Ontario politics.
It’s going to be very difficult for the PCs to win a third majority government in 2026, whether Ford is still premier or has retired and been replaced by a successor.
The last time any party in Ontario achieved three majority governments in a row was when John Robarts and the PCs won the 1963 and 1967 elections, followed by Bill Davis winning a third majority in 1971 — 51 years ago.
Davis — Ontario’s longest serving premier in the modern era (1971 to 1985) — never won back-to-back majorities, let alone three in a row.
Following his 1971 majority government, Davis won minority governments in 1975 and 1997, followed by a second majority in 1981.
The last political dynasty in Ontario — 42 years — lasted from 1943 when George Drew was elected premier to 1985, when Davis retired from politics, 37 years ago.
Since then, Ontario voters have elected and defeated Liberal, PC and NDP governments without any enduring loyalty to any one party.
The Liberals’ David Peterson won fewer seats in the 1985 election than PC premier Frank Miller who succeeded Davis (48 for the Liberals, 52 for the PCs).
But Peterson forged an alliance with then NDP leader Bob Rae (whose party won 25 seats in the 1985 election) to become premier.
Peterson’s Liberal government lasted five years — a minority government from 1985 to 1987 followed by a majority from 1987 to 1990 — before being defeated by Rae and the NDP, who won a majority government that lasted from 1990 to 1995.
Rae and the NDP were defeated in 1995 by the PCs’ Mike Harris, who won two majority governments (1995 and 1999) before resigning in 2002, with the party choosing Ernie Eves as his successor.
Eves lost the 2003 election to the Liberals’ Dalton McGuinty, who won two majority governments (2003 and 2007) followed by a minority government in 2011.
McGuinty announced his retirement a year later and was replaced by Kathleen Wynne, who won a majority government, from 2014 to 2018.
Wynne was defeated by Ford and the PCs in 2018, who won a majority government and have now been re-elected with a second majority, which will run until 2026.
The Liberal party isn’t going to disappear, even though it was reduced to seven seats in the 2018 election and added only one more on Thursday, insufficient to achieve official party status which today requires 12 seats.
The NDP lost official party status in the 1999 and 2003 elections and survived to become the official opposition party in the last two elections.
Since the end of the PC dynasty in Ontario in 1985, the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have all been in government, all been the official opposition party and all been the third party in the Legislature.
The reason is that Ontario has a mature three-party system (the Greens having won only one seat in the last two elections).
A more enduring theme in Ontario politics is that voters prefer their provincial government to be of a different political stripe than the federal government — which repeated itself Thursday, with Ford’s victory while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are in power in Ottawa.
lgoldstein@postmedia.com
GOLDSTEIN: There's no Tory dynasty in Ontario and the Liberals aren't dead
Ford had an impressive election victory Thursday, but it's not the start of a PC dynasty and the Liberal Party isn't going to disappear.
The Conservatives ran a rather straight forward low risk campaign. A couple shots at the other leaders and a couple highlighting how they were going to help Ontarionians. The Liberals and NDP offered nothing of substance to counter that.
Interesting how Northern Ontario is always Dipper Country.. guess it’s a bunch of Welfare Bums with their hand held out to see what they can take
Doug Ford could benefit if Ontario's NDP and Liberal Party merge
Author of the article:Brian Lilley
Publishing date:Jun 07, 2022 • 12 hours ago • 3 minute read • 39 Comments
Are the Ontario NDP and Liberals about to merge? Not if sane people in both parties have a say in the matter.
Losing stinks in politics just like elsewhere in life. People from the losing camps are still licking their wounds but merging these two fundamentally different parties is bonkers.
Yet, it’s now got the support of one of the most powerful Liberal cabinet ministers from the McGuinty era, Greg Sorbara.
“I would be advocating that – and this is rather controversial – that each of the parties dissolve themselves and enter into a merger that would create the Liberal Democratic Party of Ontario,” Sorbara told the Globe and Mail.
There seems to be some magical thinking that if you took the 23.76% of the popular vote that the Liberals got and the 23.73% of the popular vote that went to the NDP, that the merged party would get 47.49% of the vote and win power.
In math, 2+2 always equals 4, but in politics, that isn’t always the case.
There’s no guarantee that the supporters of each party would stick with this new entity. There would surely be some Liberals moving over to back the Progressive Conservatives and some New Democrats opting to support an existing fringe party or forming one of their own.
Ford and the PCs under such a scenario could end up with even more seats.
That’s not to say that Ontario couldn’t move towards something closer to a two-party system. That’s effectively what exists in every province west of the Ontario-Manitoba border. But in those provinces, the Liberals have either effectively merged with the Conservatives or ceased to be a party that can challenge for power.
In British Columbia, the Liberal Party is actually a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives that often acts more like a party of the right. Premier Scott Moe leads the Saskatchewan Party, which is regarded as being conservative, but is actually described as a “free-market coalition.”
The party has many members who would be federal Liberals and those who don’t want to join the NDP.
In Manitoba, it’s a battle between the PCs and the NDP and in Alberta the UCP and the NDP are the major contenders. Nowhere have the provincial Liberals merged with the New Democrats.
They may have faded into the background, like in Alberta and Manitoba, but they haven’t merged.
Had Andrea Horwath’s NDP been more ruthless — and more competent — after the last election, they would have attempted to kill off the Ontario Liberal Party and take much of itsr voting base. Horwath and her team couldn’t do it and even though the Liberals still don’t have official party status, they showed a bit of life and even edged out the NDP in the popular vote in last week’s election.
The Liberal brand is still strong in Ontario. Sure, it’s a bit battered and worn, but the Liberals remain a going concern.
What the NDP and Liberals both need to do is figure out what they are offering voters.
The NDP lost the blue collar union vote this election. Many workers who used to view the NDP as representing their interests don’t see a place for themselves. Is the NDP still a party of labour or has it moved on to represent urbanites motivated by grievance and identity politics?
The Liberals used to be a centrist party, the mushy middle that could pull voters from all sides. For the past two elections, though, they’ve tried to outflank the NDP on the progressive left. They need to decide who they are.
Until these parties figure those fundamental questions, Doug Ford and the PCs will be able to “Get it Done” at Queen’s Park without much opposition.
torontosun.com
Author of the article:Brian Lilley
Publishing date:Jun 07, 2022 • 12 hours ago • 3 minute read • 39 Comments
Are the Ontario NDP and Liberals about to merge? Not if sane people in both parties have a say in the matter.
Losing stinks in politics just like elsewhere in life. People from the losing camps are still licking their wounds but merging these two fundamentally different parties is bonkers.
Yet, it’s now got the support of one of the most powerful Liberal cabinet ministers from the McGuinty era, Greg Sorbara.
“I would be advocating that – and this is rather controversial – that each of the parties dissolve themselves and enter into a merger that would create the Liberal Democratic Party of Ontario,” Sorbara told the Globe and Mail.
There seems to be some magical thinking that if you took the 23.76% of the popular vote that the Liberals got and the 23.73% of the popular vote that went to the NDP, that the merged party would get 47.49% of the vote and win power.
In math, 2+2 always equals 4, but in politics, that isn’t always the case.
There’s no guarantee that the supporters of each party would stick with this new entity. There would surely be some Liberals moving over to back the Progressive Conservatives and some New Democrats opting to support an existing fringe party or forming one of their own.
Ford and the PCs under such a scenario could end up with even more seats.
That’s not to say that Ontario couldn’t move towards something closer to a two-party system. That’s effectively what exists in every province west of the Ontario-Manitoba border. But in those provinces, the Liberals have either effectively merged with the Conservatives or ceased to be a party that can challenge for power.
In British Columbia, the Liberal Party is actually a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives that often acts more like a party of the right. Premier Scott Moe leads the Saskatchewan Party, which is regarded as being conservative, but is actually described as a “free-market coalition.”
The party has many members who would be federal Liberals and those who don’t want to join the NDP.
In Manitoba, it’s a battle between the PCs and the NDP and in Alberta the UCP and the NDP are the major contenders. Nowhere have the provincial Liberals merged with the New Democrats.
They may have faded into the background, like in Alberta and Manitoba, but they haven’t merged.
Had Andrea Horwath’s NDP been more ruthless — and more competent — after the last election, they would have attempted to kill off the Ontario Liberal Party and take much of itsr voting base. Horwath and her team couldn’t do it and even though the Liberals still don’t have official party status, they showed a bit of life and even edged out the NDP in the popular vote in last week’s election.
The Liberal brand is still strong in Ontario. Sure, it’s a bit battered and worn, but the Liberals remain a going concern.
What the NDP and Liberals both need to do is figure out what they are offering voters.
The NDP lost the blue collar union vote this election. Many workers who used to view the NDP as representing their interests don’t see a place for themselves. Is the NDP still a party of labour or has it moved on to represent urbanites motivated by grievance and identity politics?
The Liberals used to be a centrist party, the mushy middle that could pull voters from all sides. For the past two elections, though, they’ve tried to outflank the NDP on the progressive left. They need to decide who they are.
Until these parties figure those fundamental questions, Doug Ford and the PCs will be able to “Get it Done” at Queen’s Park without much opposition.
LILLEY: Doug Ford could benefit if Ontario's NDP and Liberal Party merge
Parties are fluid coalitions of voters and a merger may not work the way some partisans hope.
happens a lot in highly unionized areas. Here in BC we have many forestry union workers are so stupid they voted for the party that took away logging jobs by banning old growth logging in many areas. Worse their union donated over a million $$$$ of members money to elect the party that took their jobs away.