Latest Federal Polls
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Pretty much coincides with my thoughts on the matter. I'm glad he brought up Jody Wilson - Raybould - that just clinches the rottenness of the man!
Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government? Lots of Liberals.
Not a good look for 'lil potato
Not a good look for 'lil potato
LILLEY: Scheer set to win most seats, according to polls
Brian Lilley
Published:
October 18, 2019
Updated:
October 18, 2019 8:36 AM EDT
Leader of Canada's Conservatives Andrew Scheer and his wife Jill campaign for the upcoming election in Little Harbour, Nova Scotia October 17, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
There is a real and pressing reason that Andrew Scheer is pushing on the idea that the party winning the most seats gets to form government. There is no way that I can see the Liberals winning the most seats in this election.
Looking at all the polling available, Scheer and his Conservatives will win the most seats come Monday.
That includes the latest polling done for the Toronto Sun as part of the DART & Maru/Blue Voice Canada Poll.
Nationally, this poll puts the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals with a four-point lead. DART has Scheer’s party at 33% voter support compared to 29% for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and 21% for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. The Greens come in at 7% and the People’s Party at 2%.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau takes part in a TV interview with journalist Celine Galipeau at a Radio-Canada studio as he campaigns in Montreal on Oct. 17, 2019. (Reuters)
“The polling suggests a minority parliament for either the Conservatives or the Liberals, dependent on two major factors — voter turnout and geography,” said pollster John Wright, a partner at DART.
That’s Wright’s official stance but allow me to differ from my friend and longtime collaborator on watching politics. Based on Wright’s own numbers and looking at geography and voter turnout, I’m willing to say we are looking at Prime Minister Andrew Scheer.
That’s if the Liberals and NDP will allow it to happen.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said repeatedly that he will do anything to stop the Conservatives from taking power, a foolish move that negates his bargaining power with Scheer if the Conservatives do win the most seats. Even on Thursday, Singh was saying he wouldn’t respect the convention that the party with the most seats attempts to form government in a minority.
“We don’t respect Conservatives, no,” Singh said.
That’s a bad rookie mistake from a man who has been rising in the polls and could be using his balance of power position to get concessions from the two main parties.
LILLEY: Trudeau attacks Kenney and Ford while trolling for Quebec votes
LILLEY: Trudeau gives Quebec a pass in a way he never would for Alberta or Ontario
CBC won't sue Liberals over partisan ad using their material
For his part, Trudeau has refused to say that he will work as part of a coalition, simply saying Canada needs a “progressive government, not a progressive opposition.” Note he isn’t saying a Liberal government.
So how can I say that the Conservatives will win the most seats come Monday? Well there is more to it than the look of desperation on Trudeau’s face or his decision to spend the last two days in Quebec with a lot of time in Montreal.
He’s changed his podium sign in Quebec to read “Standing up for Quebec,” not for Canada. He’s fighting the Bloc who have come up from 23% support in Quebec at the start of the election to 33% now.
Justin Trudeau’s blindspot on Quebec and Bill 21: 10/3 podcast
The Bloc is eating away at any hope that Trudeau had for gaining seats in Quebec, he could actually lose some of the 40 seats the Liberals currently hold.
In 2015 the Liberals won 80 seats and took 45% of the vote in Ontario. The latest DART numbers have the Liberals at 32% support behind the Conservatives at 36% while the NDP sits at 22%. There is no scenario where the Liberals hold all of those seats; they could easily lose half of them if Monday goes badly for them.
Then there is the question of turnout.
The Liberals and NDP are most popular with voters between the ages of 18 and 34 while the Conservatives are the most popular party with anyone over the age of 35. Older voters are more reliable voters and while Trudeau was propelled to victory by a coalition of young voters, women and Indigenous voters in 2015 — none of those groups are as excited for the Liberals this time around.
When Scheer’s Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority on Monday, his claim of who gets first crack at forming government goes from theoretical to a question of reality. If Scheer holds two or three seats more than Trudeau, then a coalition has a shot. But if Scheer holds a lead of 15 to 20 seats, then it becomes difficult for the Liberals to grab hold of power.
It will be late Monday or early Tuesday before we know exactly what voters will decide but I can say clearly now, the Liberals don’t have a path to victory that doesn’t include roping in the NDP or Greens.
blilley@postmedia.com
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-scheer-set-to-win-most-seats-according-to-polls
Brian Lilley
Published:
October 18, 2019
Updated:
October 18, 2019 8:36 AM EDT
Leader of Canada's Conservatives Andrew Scheer and his wife Jill campaign for the upcoming election in Little Harbour, Nova Scotia October 17, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
There is a real and pressing reason that Andrew Scheer is pushing on the idea that the party winning the most seats gets to form government. There is no way that I can see the Liberals winning the most seats in this election.
Looking at all the polling available, Scheer and his Conservatives will win the most seats come Monday.
That includes the latest polling done for the Toronto Sun as part of the DART & Maru/Blue Voice Canada Poll.
Nationally, this poll puts the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals with a four-point lead. DART has Scheer’s party at 33% voter support compared to 29% for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and 21% for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. The Greens come in at 7% and the People’s Party at 2%.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau takes part in a TV interview with journalist Celine Galipeau at a Radio-Canada studio as he campaigns in Montreal on Oct. 17, 2019. (Reuters)
“The polling suggests a minority parliament for either the Conservatives or the Liberals, dependent on two major factors — voter turnout and geography,” said pollster John Wright, a partner at DART.
That’s Wright’s official stance but allow me to differ from my friend and longtime collaborator on watching politics. Based on Wright’s own numbers and looking at geography and voter turnout, I’m willing to say we are looking at Prime Minister Andrew Scheer.
That’s if the Liberals and NDP will allow it to happen.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said repeatedly that he will do anything to stop the Conservatives from taking power, a foolish move that negates his bargaining power with Scheer if the Conservatives do win the most seats. Even on Thursday, Singh was saying he wouldn’t respect the convention that the party with the most seats attempts to form government in a minority.
“We don’t respect Conservatives, no,” Singh said.
That’s a bad rookie mistake from a man who has been rising in the polls and could be using his balance of power position to get concessions from the two main parties.
LILLEY: Trudeau attacks Kenney and Ford while trolling for Quebec votes
LILLEY: Trudeau gives Quebec a pass in a way he never would for Alberta or Ontario
CBC won't sue Liberals over partisan ad using their material
For his part, Trudeau has refused to say that he will work as part of a coalition, simply saying Canada needs a “progressive government, not a progressive opposition.” Note he isn’t saying a Liberal government.
So how can I say that the Conservatives will win the most seats come Monday? Well there is more to it than the look of desperation on Trudeau’s face or his decision to spend the last two days in Quebec with a lot of time in Montreal.
He’s changed his podium sign in Quebec to read “Standing up for Quebec,” not for Canada. He’s fighting the Bloc who have come up from 23% support in Quebec at the start of the election to 33% now.
Justin Trudeau’s blindspot on Quebec and Bill 21: 10/3 podcast
The Bloc is eating away at any hope that Trudeau had for gaining seats in Quebec, he could actually lose some of the 40 seats the Liberals currently hold.
In 2015 the Liberals won 80 seats and took 45% of the vote in Ontario. The latest DART numbers have the Liberals at 32% support behind the Conservatives at 36% while the NDP sits at 22%. There is no scenario where the Liberals hold all of those seats; they could easily lose half of them if Monday goes badly for them.
Then there is the question of turnout.
The Liberals and NDP are most popular with voters between the ages of 18 and 34 while the Conservatives are the most popular party with anyone over the age of 35. Older voters are more reliable voters and while Trudeau was propelled to victory by a coalition of young voters, women and Indigenous voters in 2015 — none of those groups are as excited for the Liberals this time around.
When Scheer’s Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority on Monday, his claim of who gets first crack at forming government goes from theoretical to a question of reality. If Scheer holds two or three seats more than Trudeau, then a coalition has a shot. But if Scheer holds a lead of 15 to 20 seats, then it becomes difficult for the Liberals to grab hold of power.
It will be late Monday or early Tuesday before we know exactly what voters will decide but I can say clearly now, the Liberals don’t have a path to victory that doesn’t include roping in the NDP or Greens.
blilley@postmedia.com
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-scheer-set-to-win-most-seats-according-to-polls
Grits and Tories tied nationally as 905 leans Conservative
Brian Lilley
Published:
October 18, 2019
Updated:
October 18, 2019 5:11 PM EDT
Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, accompanied by Beaches-East York candidate Mae J. Nam, takes a selfie with kids during an election campaign visit stop at Crescent Town Elementary School in Toronto, Ontario, Canada October 17, 2019. Chris Helgren / Reuters
In a national race that many pollsters say is too close to call, the final battle could come down to who wins in key regions of the country.
The latest numbers from Campaign Research show the Liberals and Conservatives tied nationally at 31% support with the NDP’s momentum stalled at 18%.
The poll is similar in many ways to other surveys released over the last few days of the campaign with one exception, the latest numbers show a move towards the Conservatives in the crucial 905 suburban belt that surrounds Toronto.
“The Conservatives seem to have an advantage in the 905 West Regions and the 905 East Regions, while the LPC seems to have a lead in Southwestern Ontario,” pollster Nick Kouvalis of Campaign Research said.
Across Ontario the Liberals hold a 4 point lead, 36% to 32% according to Campaign Research, but in the 905 region the Conservatives lead 46% to 38% over the Liberals in 905 West and 38%b to 34% in 905 East.
HOT RACES: Winning over the 905 opens strong path to election victory
LILLEY: Biggest poll of campaign shows tight race but trouble for Liberals
LILLEY UNLEASHED: Scheer putting time into the 905
The Liberals hold a sizeable lead in Toronto and Ottawa, a slight lead in Southwestern Ontario and the two main parties are tied in the Hamilton-Niagara Region.
In Quebec the Campaign Research poll shows the Liberals with a slight lead at 33% while the Bloc is at 29%.
British Columbia appears to be another battleground with 29% saying they back the Conservatives, 26% back the NDP and 25% back the Liberals while the Greens sit at 17%.
The closeness of that race could see BC become the deciding factor in this election.
The Liberals continue to hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada while the Conservatives hold the same in the prairies.
This study was conducted by Campaign Research between October 16th and 18th, 2019 through an online survey of 1987 randomly selected Canadian adults and has an estimated margin of error of +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-p...aded-for-a-plurality-of-seats-but-no-majority
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/grits-and-tories-tied-nationally-as-905-leans-conservative
Brian Lilley
Published:
October 18, 2019
Updated:
October 18, 2019 5:11 PM EDT
Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, accompanied by Beaches-East York candidate Mae J. Nam, takes a selfie with kids during an election campaign visit stop at Crescent Town Elementary School in Toronto, Ontario, Canada October 17, 2019. Chris Helgren / Reuters
In a national race that many pollsters say is too close to call, the final battle could come down to who wins in key regions of the country.
The latest numbers from Campaign Research show the Liberals and Conservatives tied nationally at 31% support with the NDP’s momentum stalled at 18%.
The poll is similar in many ways to other surveys released over the last few days of the campaign with one exception, the latest numbers show a move towards the Conservatives in the crucial 905 suburban belt that surrounds Toronto.
“The Conservatives seem to have an advantage in the 905 West Regions and the 905 East Regions, while the LPC seems to have a lead in Southwestern Ontario,” pollster Nick Kouvalis of Campaign Research said.
Across Ontario the Liberals hold a 4 point lead, 36% to 32% according to Campaign Research, but in the 905 region the Conservatives lead 46% to 38% over the Liberals in 905 West and 38%b to 34% in 905 East.
HOT RACES: Winning over the 905 opens strong path to election victory
LILLEY: Biggest poll of campaign shows tight race but trouble for Liberals
LILLEY UNLEASHED: Scheer putting time into the 905
The Liberals hold a sizeable lead in Toronto and Ottawa, a slight lead in Southwestern Ontario and the two main parties are tied in the Hamilton-Niagara Region.
In Quebec the Campaign Research poll shows the Liberals with a slight lead at 33% while the Bloc is at 29%.
British Columbia appears to be another battleground with 29% saying they back the Conservatives, 26% back the NDP and 25% back the Liberals while the Greens sit at 17%.
The closeness of that race could see BC become the deciding factor in this election.
The Liberals continue to hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada while the Conservatives hold the same in the prairies.
This study was conducted by Campaign Research between October 16th and 18th, 2019 through an online survey of 1987 randomly selected Canadian adults and has an estimated margin of error of +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-p...aded-for-a-plurality-of-seats-but-no-majority
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/grits-and-tories-tied-nationally-as-905-leans-conservative
ALREADY DONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LIE-berals DID NOT CARE that John Turner HAD DUAL..........................
Cdn AND U.K. citizenship!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But LIE-berals DID CARE when Lyin` Brian Mulroney NAILED TURNER...........................
for supporting dirty deals by Our Pet RAT Pierre Trudope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NOR DO LIE-berals CARE that there are CURRENTLY TWENTY TWO MP`s...............................
in our Parliament wirth either DUAL OR TRIPLE CITIZENSHIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LIE-beral hypocrisy knows few limits and no boundaries!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I would be more supportive of your posts if you replaced the word "Liberal" with the name "Trudeau". He's the Asshole!
For my part - I would be less likely to call you RUDE NAMES.......................
if you STOPPED BEING SUCH A HYPOCRITE AND Asshat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our idiot Boy is merely the PUBLIC FACE of the LIE-beral party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AS I have already explained!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our idiot Boy is the MOST PROMINENT advocate of LIE-beral POISON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But he is being pushed forward by a MULTITUDE OF ASSHATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If he disappoints the LIE-beral party - then they will find ANOTHER ASSHAT to wear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our idiot Boy DID NOT FORCE HIS VIEWS on the party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rather - the Party made him leader because he SUPPORTED THE PARTY VIEWS SO STRONGLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You CANNOT Make the idiot Boy into the party whipping boy.........................
to save the party.........................................
any more than Ontari-owe LIE-berals can save THEIR BRANCH of the party.......................
BY BLAMING Wynne-bag!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is too bad our Joyless Lie-beral Monkey is TOO DUMB to understand that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm an open book in that department, looks now like I will vote Mel Arnold the incumbant as I think he's for smaller gov't but most importantly it's not a vote that will benefit Justin either directly or indirectly. That f**ker HAS to go. The Dippers will support him in a minority gov't and besides they are for killing the pipelines. Greens are a f*cking joke, they will just kill industry. That's my take on the situation, anyway ………..take it or leave it!
WELL GOSH.......................................
THAT IS A GOOD POINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
About two LIE-berals who were THROWN OUT OF THE PARTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FOR BEING HONEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As fro other LIE-berals who may be essentially honest....................................
we have a phrase to describe such people:::::::::::
"powerless back benchers"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NO INFLUENCE - means no ability to make trouble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!