Financial Post: Alberta to bleed 31,800 jobs by end of year in oil price carnage
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Lower oil to hurt Canada for months to come: survey
Canada's resource-based economy will reel from the sting of a slump in oil prices until mid-2015 at least, when exporters may start to benefit from stronger U.S. growth and a weaker Canadian dollar, according to the top forecaster for the Canadian economy in Reuters polls in 2014.
Brent crude prices halved between June 2014 and mid-January amid a global supply glut and weak demand. That has already started to hurt Alberta, the main oil producing province, with job losses, falling home sales and business investment.
Although oil prices have begun to rebound, there is still more damage in store, according to JPMorgan's Canada economist Silvana Dimino, who topped the Reuters economic poll accuracy league for 2014, compiled by StarMine.
She expects economic growth to average 2.1% this year on an annualized basis, scaled down from the 2.4% she had forecast in a poll last month.
A sharper slowdown in growth could prompt the Bank of Canada to cut rates by another 25 basis points in March, Dimino said, after the central bank trumped all economists' predictions with a surprise rate cut at the January meeting.
Governor Stephen Poloz said on Wednesday the bank had taken the right amount of insurance with its January rate cut, a remark that prompted several economists to ditch predictions for another rate cut in March.
Before that move, the Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England were the only major central banks expected to raise rates any time soon.
Still, Canada's economy is expected to improve toward the end of the year as exports start to pick up, Dimino said.
BayStreet.ca - Canadian Economy
Canada's resource-based economy will reel from the sting of a slump in oil prices until mid-2015 at least, when exporters may start to benefit from stronger U.S. growth and a weaker Canadian dollar, according to the top forecaster for the Canadian economy in Reuters polls in 2014.
Brent crude prices halved between June 2014 and mid-January amid a global supply glut and weak demand. That has already started to hurt Alberta, the main oil producing province, with job losses, falling home sales and business investment.
Although oil prices have begun to rebound, there is still more damage in store, according to JPMorgan's Canada economist Silvana Dimino, who topped the Reuters economic poll accuracy league for 2014, compiled by StarMine.
She expects economic growth to average 2.1% this year on an annualized basis, scaled down from the 2.4% she had forecast in a poll last month.
A sharper slowdown in growth could prompt the Bank of Canada to cut rates by another 25 basis points in March, Dimino said, after the central bank trumped all economists' predictions with a surprise rate cut at the January meeting.
Governor Stephen Poloz said on Wednesday the bank had taken the right amount of insurance with its January rate cut, a remark that prompted several economists to ditch predictions for another rate cut in March.
Before that move, the Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England were the only major central banks expected to raise rates any time soon.
Still, Canada's economy is expected to improve toward the end of the year as exports start to pick up, Dimino said.
BayStreet.ca - Canadian Economy
RBC predicts 'anemic' growth for Alberta economy in 2015
Persistent weakness in the energy sector and its spillover effects on consumer confidence will hit the Alberta economy hard this year, says a new report by RBC that predicts an “anemic pace” of growth in the province.
The bank’s latest Provincial Outlook, released Thursday, forecasts annual real GDP growth of 0.6 per cent in the province for 2015. That revision is down from the 2.8 per cent forecast the bank made in December. The new outlook predicts growth of 1.1 per cent in 2016.
The 2015 forecast is the lowest economic growth rate in the country. In 2014, Alberta had the best growth at 4.2 per cent.
“Alberta saw a dramatic turn of events in recent months, as it became clear that the steep drop in crude oil prices since mid 2014 would have profound adverse repercussions for the province’s energy sector,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC. “The initial position of strength in the economy is likely sufficient to keep the province in growth territory in 2015, though the risks of a recession can’t be dismissed.”
RBC forecasts economic growth of 2.4 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent in 2016 for Canada. The economy grew 2.5 per cent in 2014.
The report said widespread capital spending cutbacks announced by energy firms since late last year highlight the direct hit that low oil prices will have on investment in Alberta this year,.
“Accounting for a quarter of economic activity in the province, a sharp drop in non-residential business investment is expected to cut more than 1.5 percentage points directly off Alberta’s economic growth in 2015,” said Wright.
The report said very strong job creation in recent years in the province is likely to stall — employment is expected to decline by 0.1 per cent this year, after growing 2.2 per cent in 2014. Employment growth of 0.7 per cent is forecast for 2016.
Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.7 per cent this year, from 4.7 per cent. The jobless rate is then expected to decline slightly in 2016, to 5.4 per cent.
RBC forecast for retail sales growth is just one per cent, down from 7.6 per cent in 2014.
The housing market is also expected to take a major hit with starts in the province plunging from 40,590 last year to 29,300 this year and 30,800 next year.
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter.com/MTone123
RBC predicts ‘anemic’ growth for Alberta economy in 2015 | Calgary Herald
Persistent weakness in the energy sector and its spillover effects on consumer confidence will hit the Alberta economy hard this year, says a new report by RBC that predicts an “anemic pace” of growth in the province.
The bank’s latest Provincial Outlook, released Thursday, forecasts annual real GDP growth of 0.6 per cent in the province for 2015. That revision is down from the 2.8 per cent forecast the bank made in December. The new outlook predicts growth of 1.1 per cent in 2016.
The 2015 forecast is the lowest economic growth rate in the country. In 2014, Alberta had the best growth at 4.2 per cent.
“Alberta saw a dramatic turn of events in recent months, as it became clear that the steep drop in crude oil prices since mid 2014 would have profound adverse repercussions for the province’s energy sector,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC. “The initial position of strength in the economy is likely sufficient to keep the province in growth territory in 2015, though the risks of a recession can’t be dismissed.”
RBC forecasts economic growth of 2.4 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent in 2016 for Canada. The economy grew 2.5 per cent in 2014.
The report said widespread capital spending cutbacks announced by energy firms since late last year highlight the direct hit that low oil prices will have on investment in Alberta this year,.
“Accounting for a quarter of economic activity in the province, a sharp drop in non-residential business investment is expected to cut more than 1.5 percentage points directly off Alberta’s economic growth in 2015,” said Wright.
The report said very strong job creation in recent years in the province is likely to stall — employment is expected to decline by 0.1 per cent this year, after growing 2.2 per cent in 2014. Employment growth of 0.7 per cent is forecast for 2016.
Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.7 per cent this year, from 4.7 per cent. The jobless rate is then expected to decline slightly in 2016, to 5.4 per cent.
RBC forecast for retail sales growth is just one per cent, down from 7.6 per cent in 2014.
The housing market is also expected to take a major hit with starts in the province plunging from 40,590 last year to 29,300 this year and 30,800 next year.
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter.com/MTone123
RBC predicts ‘anemic’ growth for Alberta economy in 2015 | Calgary Herald
Growth is still growth.
Betcha you would like to be able to use that word in your neck of the world, eh Flossy?
10,446*jobs posted in Saskatchewan today...
Nothing changed in SK.
Is it another "oh just you wait" like Global Warming, stopping oil sands and Injun uprisings?
Nothing changed in SK.
Is it another "oh just you wait" like Global Warming, stopping oil sands and Injun uprisings?
I wonder how many people are employed by Mr Wynne in continually adjusting her debt clock?
If she were smart, they'd do it manually and have a small army employed for just this reason alone
If she were smart, they'd do it manually and have a small army employed for just this reason alone
"If she were smart"....
She isn't. I hope like hell they issue that Hydro One IPO before settling the deliberate overbilling. I'll be the first to file fraud charges with the ON securities commission and IMET.
If ON isn't smart enough to help it's self from being ripped off, somebody has to step in.
That says a lot about how far Alberta has come. We're expecting economic GROWTH despite oil prices in the toilet. Thank Ralph for that