Harper portraying himself as economic safe haven when his whole strategy is in ruins

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,784
459
83
I'm sure Harper's 'surprising' initiative to finally start investing in manufacturing again will help.

If only he had listened to the economists who were recommending this years ago, we might have avoided this lopsided economy.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
It's not the Feds job to develop Ontario's mfg ability.

Had your province had any foresight, they would not have taxed the industry to death and driven them South.

Now, if what you're saying is that Ontario can not be counted on to make good decisions and want Harper to take the reigns of power, well, that would be an excellent idea
 

Angstrom

Hall of Fame Member
May 8, 2011
10,659
0
36
Aggressive policy's Like energy independence, don't usually get a positive reaction from the ones who we depended on in the past.

Are you saying our aggressive energy independence was a bad policy?
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,784
459
83
It's not the Feds job to develop Ontario's mfg ability.

Had your province had any foresight, they would not have taxed the industry to death and driven them South.

Now, if what you're saying is that Ontario can not be counted on to make good decisions and want Harper to take the reigns of power, well, that would be an excellent idea

If it were entirely up to Ontario, then the Feds wouldn't be investing in manufacturing all of a sudden.

Federal parties ‘discover’ Southwestern Ontario’s manufacturing muscle | Windsor Star

What a difference a cheaper barrel of oil and a weakened dollar can make on the Canadian political landscape — and in the potential fortunes of Windsor and Southwestern Ontario.

The leaders of the top three federal political parties are suddenly tripping over themselves with promises to help the region and its much-diminished, but still-mighty, manufacturing sector. Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau have each made a point in recent days of publicly touting the importance of this area’s industrial sector.

“My question is, where were they five years ago?” said University of Windsor political scientist Lydia Miljan. That’s when a brutal recession ravaged the region, with factories closing, companies moving out and thousands upon thousands of jobs lost.
 

Angstrom

Hall of Fame Member
May 8, 2011
10,659
0
36
Where were we 5 years ago?

At par with the greenback Lydia Milijan.
What has changed since?

79€ to the green back.

These university people are getting really dumb.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,784
459
83
You'll need to take off those oil tinted glasses one day Angstrom.

Nominal GDP growth takes an even deeper hit than real GDP at below 2%, compared to the 5% we would have enjoyed if oil had just stayed at 100 bucks.

It is nominal figures, after all, that matter in fiscal finances, and we find that the difference between US$100 and US$50 is a $61.2-billion surplus at the federal level and a deficit of almost $1-billion.

The impact on TSX profits is even more pronounced. Instead of earnings per share growth of around 15% for this year in the US$100-per-barrel scenario, there’s a projected decline of more than 10% under a US$50 oil backdrop.

In other words, the TSX would be trading at a 16x forward price-to-earnings multiple with oil at US$100 instead of 21x — that’s the difference US$50 makes: five points on the multiple.

The unemployment rate in that land of US$100 oil would have averaged 6.6% this year, but the jobless rate ends up closer to 7.1% at US$50.

Again, the impact of a US$50 difference in the price of oil that has already exerted itself on Bank of Canada policy is a nontrivial drag on the loonie.

David Rosenberg is chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. and author of the daily economic report, Breakfast with Dave. Follow David and his colleagues on Twitter @GluskinSheffInc


David Rosenberg: What US$50 oil really means for Canada’s economy | Financial Post
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
110,160
11,736
113
Low Earth Orbit
I'm sure Harper's 'surprising' initiative to finally start investing in manufacturing again will help.

If only he had listened to the economists who were recommending this years ago, we might have avoided this lopsided economy.

And kept resources in the ground and not built up west coast ports, highways, bridges and railways to keep the vast wealth of Canada landlocked for another 100 years because of some whinny bitches in Ontario?
 

Angstrom

Hall of Fame Member
May 8, 2011
10,659
0
36
You'll need to take off those oil tinted glasses one day Angstrom.

Nominal GDP growth takes an even deeper hit than real GDP at below 2%, compared to the 5% we would have enjoyed if oil had just stayed at 100 bucks.

It is nominal figures, after all, that matter in fiscal finances, and we find that the difference between US$100 and US$50 is a $61.2-billion surplus at the federal level and a deficit of almost $1-billion.

The impact on TSX profits is even more pronounced. Instead of earnings per share growth of around 15% for this year in the US$100-per-barrel scenario, there’s a projected decline of more than 10% under a US$50 oil backdrop.

In other words, the TSX would be trading at a 16x forward price-to-earnings multiple with oil at US$100 instead of 21x — that’s the difference US$50 makes: five points on the multiple.

The unemployment rate in that land of US$100 oil would have averaged 6.6% this year, but the jobless rate ends up closer to 7.1% at US$50.

Again, the impact of a US$50 difference in the price of oil that has already exerted itself on Bank of Canada policy is a nontrivial drag on the loonie.

David Rosenberg is chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. and author of the daily economic report, Breakfast with Dave. Follow David and his colleagues on Twitter @GluskinSheffInc


David Rosenberg: What US$50 oil really means for Canada’s economy | Financial Post

Ok, here is what the article says.

Can't make 15% profit on oil production like we have in the near past.
Get ready to see canadian business investment into other formats.

Where were we 5 years ago? Making 15% profits on oil production.
Where are we today?
Trying to find different ways of making as much money as possible.

Ok . You're a business man all of a sudden mentalfloss,

You have the choice of investing you're money to make 15% profit in oil
Or you can invest into manufacturing and make a 3% profit, what do you choose to invest in?
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,784
459
83
None of your post disagrees with the fact that we should have had a more balanced portfolio in the first place, Angstrom.


And kept resources in the ground and not built up west coast ports, highways, bridges and railways to keep the vast wealth of Canada landlocked for another 100 years because of some whinny bitches in Ontario?

You are assuming that we could not have done both.
 

Angstrom

Hall of Fame Member
May 8, 2011
10,659
0
36
None of your post disagrees with the fact that we should have had a more balanced portfolio in the first place Angstrom

You have the choice of investing you're money to make 15% profit in oil
Or you can invest into manufacturing and make a 3% profit, what do you choose to invest in

It's that simple when you're a business man

So you go to the bank mentalfloss, and they tell you you can grow you're money at 15% with hardly any risk
Or you can grow you're money at 3% with hardly any risk. What do you invest you're money in floss?
 

Angstrom

Hall of Fame Member
May 8, 2011
10,659
0
36
Mentalfloss???

Where are you?

So you go to the bank mentalfloss, and they tell you you can grow you're money at 15% with hardly any risk
Or you can grow you're money at 3% with hardly any risk. What do you invest you're money in floss?

Did mentalfloss just flake out of our conversation?
 

bluebyrd35

Council Member
Aug 9, 2008
2,373
0
36
Ormstown.Chat.Valley
I'm sure Harper's 'surprising' initiative to finally start investing in manufacturing again will help.

If only he had listened to the economists who were recommending this years ago, we might have avoided this lopsided economy.
Harper investing in manufacturing?? Get a grip. By plunging the economy into the beginning of recession, and putting our dollar on the fastest slide I have ever seen he has diminished the value of our dollar so that world can buy our goods at a really cheap price. However, since Canada is large importer of goods from other countries, guess where the cost of living goes goes for Canadians (Hint it ain't down) The price of food, and all the goods we don't manufacture will be felt in a month or less. Now add to that the salaries and the pensions that will not catch up for many months, or even years, who suffers??? All Canadians except perhaps the few manufacturers that actually have a market outside of Canada. Canada sells mostly raw materials.

Even the oil we produce is unlikely to be refined in Canada, if a pipeline to the Southern US goes through.

At least, we can drive at little cheaper than previously, just not as cheaply as non-Canadians are able to. Nice to be a country with lots of oil LOL.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
110,160
11,736
113
Low Earth Orbit
Manufacturing is smoking hot in SK now that goods can get to port.


It must be a regional thing for sh-t manufacturing economic conditions.