The latest polls suggest the province that almost single-handedly gave Stephen Harper a majority government in 2011 could see a tight contest between the Conservatives and Justin Trudeau's Liberals in 2015.
Though the Liberals still lead in ThreeHundredEight's weighted polling averages in Ontario with 38 per cent support, that puts them only two points up on the Conservatives. In the past seven polls carried out in Ontario, the Liberals have registered 40 per cent or less in all of them — and that after managing 40 per cent or more in 10 of the previous 12 polls.
The latest poll from Ipsos Reid, which sampled more than 8,000 people nationwide and over 2,000 in Ontario alone, put the two parties dead even at 37 per cent apiece.
The New Democrats trail in third place with 20 per cent in the weighted average, and have shown little life in Ontario since slumping in May. The Greens are in fourth with five per cent support.
Support appears to be shifting in Ontario, and the consequences could be significant. In September, the Liberals enjoyed a 10-point lead over the Conservatives in the polling average with 43 to 33 per cent support, enough to ensure a healthy share of the 121 seats up for grabs in the province next year. But with the gap narrowed to just two points, many seats could be decided by very slim margins.
Ontario is certainly the most important prize in 2015. The Conservatives won 73 seats there in 2011, a gain of 22 over their performance in 2008 and an increase that accounts for the party moving from minority to majority status in the House of Commons.
The last time the Liberals won an election, in 2004, Ontario was responsible for sending 75 Liberal MPs to Ottawa, and during the Jean Chrétien years the party nearly swept the province in every riding.
So the stakes could not be higher for Trudeau and Harper in Ontario. While the federal election could be decided in the province, it could be the Greater Toronto Area that decides which way Ontario swings.
The poll from Ipsos Reid shows how close things are in the region. After winning Toronto by only a handful of points in 2011, the Liberals are again in a strong position there with 46 per cent support, 20 points up on the second place New Democrats. But in the wider 905 area code that surrounds the city, the Conservatives hold a narrow four-point lead over the Liberals, with 41 to 37 per cent support.
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Polls show Justin Trudeau, Stephen Harper in tight Ontario race - Politics - CBC News
the winds of sh!t are beginning to blow through the gta friends. ;-)
Though the Liberals still lead in ThreeHundredEight's weighted polling averages in Ontario with 38 per cent support, that puts them only two points up on the Conservatives. In the past seven polls carried out in Ontario, the Liberals have registered 40 per cent or less in all of them — and that after managing 40 per cent or more in 10 of the previous 12 polls.
The latest poll from Ipsos Reid, which sampled more than 8,000 people nationwide and over 2,000 in Ontario alone, put the two parties dead even at 37 per cent apiece.
The New Democrats trail in third place with 20 per cent in the weighted average, and have shown little life in Ontario since slumping in May. The Greens are in fourth with five per cent support.
Support appears to be shifting in Ontario, and the consequences could be significant. In September, the Liberals enjoyed a 10-point lead over the Conservatives in the polling average with 43 to 33 per cent support, enough to ensure a healthy share of the 121 seats up for grabs in the province next year. But with the gap narrowed to just two points, many seats could be decided by very slim margins.
Ontario is certainly the most important prize in 2015. The Conservatives won 73 seats there in 2011, a gain of 22 over their performance in 2008 and an increase that accounts for the party moving from minority to majority status in the House of Commons.
The last time the Liberals won an election, in 2004, Ontario was responsible for sending 75 Liberal MPs to Ottawa, and during the Jean Chrétien years the party nearly swept the province in every riding.
So the stakes could not be higher for Trudeau and Harper in Ontario. While the federal election could be decided in the province, it could be the Greater Toronto Area that decides which way Ontario swings.
The poll from Ipsos Reid shows how close things are in the region. After winning Toronto by only a handful of points in 2011, the Liberals are again in a strong position there with 46 per cent support, 20 points up on the second place New Democrats. But in the wider 905 area code that surrounds the city, the Conservatives hold a narrow four-point lead over the Liberals, with 41 to 37 per cent support.
more
Polls show Justin Trudeau, Stephen Harper in tight Ontario race - Politics - CBC News
the winds of sh!t are beginning to blow through the gta friends. ;-)
