Death knell for AGW

[Tonington]

Question, is it easier to set records earlier in a record than later in a record? To put it another way, would you expect a record to have more weight in a small sample, or a large sample? :lol:

There is a reason that it is better to look at the distribution of events, and to normalize by the local standard deviation, as James Hansen and colleagues did. For one it minimizes the bias that comes from comparing records in a small sample to a large one.

 

[L Gilbert]

Ummm....

That's what that says.

ooops
Guess I was reading in a hurry.

 

[Tonington]

But either way, she is saying that human activities are boosting warming just by developing areas. Makes sense. Forests and such are usually cooler than parking lots and such.

That's a bit of a stretch though, to attribute late records to human development. You'll notice that Spencer never mentioned what kind of homogenization the NOAA data uses. NOAA uses satellite images of brightness at night, amongst other tools to differentiate areas of high development, and adjusts accordingly so to remove the bias that would otherwise exist later in the data set. Spencer knows this.

 

[L Gilbert]

That's a bit of a stretch though, to attribute late records to human development. You'll notice that Spencer never mentioned what kind of homogenization the NOAA data uses. NOAA uses satellite images of brightness at night, amongst other tools to differentiate areas of high development, and adjusts accordingly so to remove the bias that would otherwise exist later in the data set. Spencer knows this.

I'm not so sure. Even in winter there's a noticeable difference between the temps in the local towns and the temps in the rural areas. Summer temps are even more amplified. So like I said, forests and marshes and whatnot are simply cooler than increasing urban areas concerning surface temps (the urban heat island thing). Not much of a stretch, IMO.

IR photography indicates it really well.

 

[Tonington]

I'm not so sure. Even in winter there's a noticeable difference between the temps in the local towns and the temps in the rural areas. Summer temps are even more amplified. So like I said, forests and marshes and whatnot are simply cooler than increasing urban areas concerning surface temps (the urban heat island thing). Not much of a stretch, IMO.

No, I get what you're saying. The point I was trying to make, though probably not very well, is that just like you say, urban records have higher development and they definitely will be biased to the warmer due to the amplification of heat. One of the adjustments NOAA makes is to use those stations with less urbanization, and to choose rural stations wherever possible. In the end, the difference doesn't turn out to be that large.

 

[L Gilbert]

No, I get what you're saying. The point I was trying to make, though probably not very well, is that just like you say, urban records have higher development and they definitely will be biased to the warmer due to the amplification of heat. One of the adjustments NOAA makes is to use those stations with less urbanization, and to choose rural stations wherever possible. In the end, the difference doesn't turn out to be that large.

Ah, I see.
Still, I was considering that Loc, being a skeptic about climate warming, probably posted the article thinking it would deflate pro-GW types. In fact, as I pointed out, not only does the researcher in her article acknowledge human intervention in climate, but added that just by developing more areas, is supplying even more heat than just what the GHGs cause.
IOW, it seems to have backfired on him.

 

[taxslave]

Ah, I see.
Still, I was considering that Loc, being a skeptic about climate warming, probably posted the article thinking it would deflate pro-GW types. In fact, as I pointed out, not only does the researcher in her article acknowledge human intervention in climate, but added that just by developing more areas, is supplying even more heat than just what the GHGs cause.
IOW, it seems to have backfired on him.

Not so much a sceptic about global warming, more the sky is falling attitude of the truthers. There is bound to be heat generated around urban areas that in some cases is measurable however it doesn't mean that the world is going to hell in a handbasket.

 

[L Gilbert]

Not so much a sceptic about global warming, more the sky is falling attitude of the truthers. There is bound to be heat generated around urban areas that in some cases is measurable however it doesn't mean that the world is going to hell in a handbasket.

Yeah, I know. I don't think the world is doing that either, but it is changing and we have added to the change in more ways than just GHGs.

 

[Locutus]

:lol: @ koolaiders



A good common sense Saskatoon solid poll.

But still kids...

via sda

A CKOM Poll Goes Horribly Wrong

"Do you believe climate change is happening because of human activity?" (bottom right of page)

Latest News - The Stories We're Working On | News Talk 650 CKOM

 

[L Gilbert]

Funny stuff. Good thing sensible people hinge their opinions on evidence and research rather than polls.

 

[Locutus]

Czech President: Global Warming Believers “Arguments And Ambitions Are Very Similar To Those We Used To Live With Under Communism, They Want To Control The Whole of Society”…



Václav Klaus: The arrogance of the global-warming alarmists is appalling


President Václav Klaus has again spoken words of wisdom on global warming. Here is an extract of his speech at the International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies, organized by the World Federation of Scientists in Erice, Sicily on 20 August 2012:

As someone who personally experienced central planning and attempts to organize the whole of society from one place, I feel obliged to warn against the arguments and ambitions of the believers in the global warming doctrine. Their arguments and ambitions are very similar to those we used to live with decades ago under Communism. The arrogance with which the global-warming alarmists and their fellow-travellers in politics and the media present their views is appalling. They want to suppress the market, they want to control the whole of society, they want to dictate prices (directly or indirectly by means of various interventions, including taxes), they want to “use” the market. I agree with Ray Evans that we experience the “Orwellian use of the words ‘market’ and ‘price’ to persuade people to accept a control over their lives”[8]. All the standard economic arguments against such attempts should be repeated. It is our duty to do it.

To conclude, I agree with many serious climatologists who say that the warming we may expect will be very small. I agree with Bob Carter and other scientists that it is difficult “to prove that the human effect on the climate can be measured” because “this effect is lost in the variability of natural climate changes”[9]. Provided that there are no irrational attempts to mitigate the human effect on global temperature, the economic losses connected with the warming we may expect will be very small. The loss generated as a result of the completely useless fight against global warming would be far greater.

Read the entire speech here

The New Nostradamus of the North: Václav Klaus: The arrogance of the global-warming alarmists is appalling

h/t Weasel Zippers

 

[CDNBear]

When in doubt, whip the Red card out, lol.

 

[Cabbagesandking]

Shoulkd anyone care what Klaus says or thinks? His own government does not and he has been touting this rubbish for many years.

It has not stopped the Czech Republic from being a participant in Kyoto and attempting to reduce its emissions.

Weasel Zippers; Small Dead Animals! They have about the same credibility as Wattsupwiththat.

 

[petros]

Weasel Zippers; Small Dead Animals! They have about the same credibility as Wattsupwiththat.

Far more than ol' sauerkraut.

 

[beaker]

I am surprised that the leader of a country can disassociate himself so far from reality that he can blame scientists for telling us the results of their research. But I live in Canada, a country with Harper as prime minister so I am surprised quite often. This Vaclav though he does us proud by saying it to a community of scientists. There is. O record of how his statements were received. I hope noone got up and walked out on him.

Might have been hard on his probably highly inflated ego. We don't know how serious it is going to get, that part is true but that uncertainty relies mostly on how far we go to avoid the problem

 

[petros]

If you lived during the 1930's scientists would have pegged you as low end of the human scale and slated you for sterilization. Were the eugenics scientists of the day right or wrong about anthropometry and genetics?

 

[beaker]

If you lived during the 1930's scientists would have pegged you as low end of the human scale and slated you for sterilization. Were the eugenics scientists of the day right or wrong about anthropometry and genetics?

It is a good thing to be able to laugh in the face of your own ignorance petros may it be a balm to your injured soul

 

[petros]

It is a good thing to be able to laugh in the face of your own ignorance petros may it be a balm to your injured soul

It's great to laugh at the stunned. Thanks for the giggles.

Just like Kyoto...Eugenics was law backed by alleged science. You remember what happened to those 15 Million people in Poland right? It was all backed by science and 100% legal.

[One of the best quotes of all time.....

Never forget that everything Hitler did in Germany was legal. - Martin Luther King, Jr

 

[beaker]

Just like Kyoto the Montreal protocol, the regulation of sulfur emissions, and the recognition of liability for pollution must rest on polluters. All backed by legislation and backed by science

 

[petros]

Just like Kyoto the Montreal protocol, the regulation of sulfur emissions, and the recognition of liability for pollution must rest on polluters. All backed by legislation and backed by science

WOOHOO whip out the Zyklon B!!! It's backed by science.