Increasing tax rates is not always a revenue generator - The Globe and Mail
The Conservatives’ decision to cut two percentage points from the GST removed roughly $12-billion from the federal government’s revenues, and closing this hole in the budget balance will require some combination of spending cuts and tax increases. While the Conservatives have made it clear that they will not increase taxes, the opposition parties have proposed that instead of cutting programs, some taxes should increase. But the estimated revenues that are associated with these measures are overstated by a factor of at least two, and probably much more
A similar story can be told for corporate taxes: this study of OECD countries finds that a 10 per cent increase in the corporate tax rate reduces the tax base by about 7 per cent. It is standard practice in Canadian politics -- government and opposition parties alike -- to assume that this effect is zero. The actual effect of a corporate tax increase on revenues will be a fraction of estimates based on an assumption of no behavioural responses.
One of the reasons why the GST is such an effective generator of revenues is that it generates very little in the way of a behavioural response. The GST tax base is relatively stable: people generally buy almost as much after an increase in the GST as before.
It may be politically attractive to talk about taxing corporations and high earners, and there may be advantages for doing so that have nothing to do with revenue generation. But the effects of these measures on the budget balance are being greatly overestimated.
The Conservatives’ decision to cut two percentage points from the GST removed roughly $12-billion from the federal government’s revenues, and closing this hole in the budget balance will require some combination of spending cuts and tax increases. While the Conservatives have made it clear that they will not increase taxes, the opposition parties have proposed that instead of cutting programs, some taxes should increase. But the estimated revenues that are associated with these measures are overstated by a factor of at least two, and probably much more
A similar story can be told for corporate taxes: this study of OECD countries finds that a 10 per cent increase in the corporate tax rate reduces the tax base by about 7 per cent. It is standard practice in Canadian politics -- government and opposition parties alike -- to assume that this effect is zero. The actual effect of a corporate tax increase on revenues will be a fraction of estimates based on an assumption of no behavioural responses.
One of the reasons why the GST is such an effective generator of revenues is that it generates very little in the way of a behavioural response. The GST tax base is relatively stable: people generally buy almost as much after an increase in the GST as before.
It may be politically attractive to talk about taxing corporations and high earners, and there may be advantages for doing so that have nothing to do with revenue generation. But the effects of these measures on the budget balance are being greatly overestimated.