Hung Parliament: Brown to stand down if Cons and Lib Dems agree a coalition

Blackleaf

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The world's oldest surviving democracy has given Britain a hung parliament, its first since 1974.

The General Election is actually 650 mini elections taking place in 650 constituencies. Over 4000 candidates stood in the election, each vying to become one of 650 MPs having a seat in the Commons.

Therefore, for any party to win a majority, they must have at least 326 MPs elected during the election. However, no party managed it.

The Tories won the election, gaining 2 million more votes than Labour, but they didn't quite hit the magic 326 seats. They finished on 307 seats (assuming they take the ultra-safe Tory seat of Thirsk and Malton later this month), Labour got 258 seats and the Liberal Democrats finished on 57 seats.

Since the last general Election, in 2005, that is an increase of 97 Commons seats for the Tories and a decrease of 91 for Labour.

And, despite the Liberal Democrats riding high in the polls during the election campaign since their comparitively unknown leader Nick Clegg appeared in the first TV debate - a phenomenon known as Cleggmania - they actually did WORSE in this election than in 2005, gaining just 57 seats, six seats LESS than they had previously. This proves that, despite the British public liking the look of Nick Clegg, they still can't bring themselves to vote for a party whose loony policies include having an amnesty for illegal immigrants, joining the Euro and getting rid of Britain's nuclear weapons.

However, because of the hung parliament, David Cameron's Tories are now in discussions with the Liberal Democrats to try and maybe form a coalition government. If the Tories' 307 seats are added to the Liberal Democrats' 57 seats, that would be a total of 364 seats, which puts them well above the 326 needed for a majority government. Nick Clegg said during the campaign that, should a hung parliament occur, he will enter discussions with whichever party has the most votes and the most seats - and that's the Tories.

However, should those discussions break down, Clegg may then enter talks with Labour to form a government, However, the elections mathematics make it more difficult for Labour to form a coalition than the Tories. Adding Labour's 258 seats to the Liberal Democrats' 57 only gives them 315 seats, still below the 326 seats needed, so they will have to form a "rainbow coalition" with several other smaller parties, such as UKIP, the Green Party and maybe the Scottish and Welsh nationalists.

Both Labour and the Tories are trying to woo the Lib Dems by saying they would implement one or two Lib Dem policies if they help them to form a government. The Tories are offering the Lib dems three seats in the Cabinet if they help them to form a Government. The Liberals haven't been in power for 80 years. And the Lib Dems also want a new electoral system. The Tories wish to keep it the same, but have offered the Lib Dems a committee to look into it.

Meanwhile, Gordon Brown remains PM, as the constitution declares, as someone needs to keep their hands on the tiller whilst discussions over a possible Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition takes place, althought the Tories may decide to rule by themselves as a minority government. It is also possible that a second General Election will take place later this year, possibly in October or November, which the Tories are likely to win. Unlike other European countries, the British aren't used to coalition governments, which are often more ineffective.

Britain could have a new government up and running within a couple of days. Of all the G8 nations - US, Britain, Japan, Italy, Germany, France, Canada and Russia, Britain is the speediest at setting up a new government after an election. Usually, when there's no hung parliament, the new PM is installed the very next morning.

The Green Party has also been celebrating after winning its very first seat in the Commons. Its leader, Caroline Lucas, snatched Brighton Pavilion from Labour, winning 16,238 votes. Labour's Nancy Platts finished second, with 14,986 votes; the Tory candidate finished third with 12,275 votes. Though the Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality Party must also be feeling proud with themselves in that constituency. Their policies include increasing the statutory retirement age to beyond death, finding a cure for Zombie bites and granting the undead the same rights as the living. Their candidate gained a whopping 61 votes.

'Gordon will do the right thing': Blunkett says Brown WILL stand down if Lib Dems and Tories agree on coalition

By Niall Firth
9th May 2010
Daily Mail


  • Brown emails Labour supporters to say he will continue to fight
  • Lib Dem and Tory teams due to meet at 11am today to thrash out deal
  • Hung parliament could saddle Britain with billions more in debt
  • Lib Dems to be offered up to four Cabinet posts in Tory deal
  • Three Labour MPs join voters in calling for Brown to stand down as leader
  • Lib Dems still 'suspicious' of Tories, says MP Simon Hughes

Gordon Brown smiles as he walks to church in North Queensferry in Fife this morning


2010 General Election - the result

Commons seats (in brackets - change on last election, 2005)

Conservatives: 307 seats (+97)
Labour: 258 seats (-91)
Liberal Democrats: 57 seats (-6)

(Conservatives have so far won 306 seats but there is still one seat, Thirsk and Malton, still to declare. This is due the death of UKIP candidate John Boakes from a suspected heart-attack, announced on 22 April. The election in this constituency is to be postponed until 27 May but is an ultra-safe Conservative seat, so the Tories will, in all likelihood, gain their 307th seat.)

Popular vote

Conservatives: 10,683,787
Labour: 8,604,358
Liberal Democrats: 6,827,938

% of vote

Conservatives: 36.1
Labour: 29
Liberal Democrats: 23

Swing

Conservatives: +3.8%
Labour: -6.2%
Liberal Democrats: +1.0

Other parties and their number of Commons seats

United Kingdom Independence Party: 914,154 (no seats)
British National Party: 564,321 (no seats)
Scottish National Party: 491,376 (6 seats)
Green Party: 285,616 (1 seat)
Sinn Fein: 171,942 (5 seats)
Democratic Unionist Party: 168,216 (8 seats)
Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalists): 165,394 (3 seats)
Social Democratic and Labour Party: 110,970 (3 seats)
Alliance: 42,762 (1 seat)
Respect: 33,081 (0 seats)
Independents: 16,150 (no seats)
Others: 445,296 (1 seat)

Gordon Brown's future was hanging in the balance today after one of Labour's most senior figures indicated that the Prime Minister would resign if the Lib Dems and Tories were able to strike a deal.

Former Home Secretary David Blunkett said that Mr Brown would 'do the right thing' if David Cameron and Nick Clegg were able to 'cobble together an agreement'.

The Lib Dems and Tories were locked in coalition talks this afternoon as they frantically tried to hammer out a deal which would see David Cameron finally claim the keys to No 10.

Business leaders have warned that the financial markets face meltdown if the two sides cannot come to an agreement before they open tomorrow morning.

Mr Blunkett's comments come as Mr Brown faced growing pressure from Labour MPs to stand down and a series of polls showed that the general public wants to see him leave Downing Street.

'I'm absolutely certain that Gordon Brown will do the right thing, I trust him to do the right thing,' Mr Blunkett said.


'On Friday afternoon he did the right thing, I thought he showed statesmanship in terms of indicating that he would continue as Prime Minister because we need a government in place, we need a Prime Minister in place, we can't have a total vacuum.'

Asked whether Mr Brown should stand down if a Tory-Lib Dem deal was struck, he added: 'I think in a scenario you've outlined, I repeat again I trust Gordon Brown to make the right decisions.'

Mr Brown was meeting his senior Cabinet ministers -including Lord Mandelson and Harriet Harman - this afternoon and has sent an email to Labour supporters thanking them for their support during the election campaign.

The Prime Minister said Labour voters had 'heard our message above the roar of a hostile media and a very well funded opposition'.

And he insisted that he would continue to 'fight for the people of this country'.

Lord Peter Mandelson looks exhausted as he arrives at Downing Street to speak with the Gordon Brown this afternoon

As talks continue between Lib Dem and Tory negotiating teams, a senior Tory shadow minister today admitted that he would let a Lib Dem MP take his Cabinet seat if it would help to further the talks.

Shadow education minister Michael Gove said that he would concede his position in a clear sign that the Tories want to thrash out a deal as soon as possible to oust Gordon Brown from No 10.

Nick Clegg and David Cameron had a 'constructive and amicable' secret meeting last night.

But former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown said that there was 'a mountain to climb' if they were to get an agreement.

He said that David Cameron's offer of a committee of inquiry into the electoral system would not satisfy Lib Dem demands for reform.

But he added that it was 'self-evident' that Gordon Brown would not be able to lead a 'rainbow' coalition with the Lib Dems and smaller parties in Scotland.

Mr Gove singled out for praise the Lib Dems' education spokesman David Laws, one of the party's senior figures who had been tipped to take a post in a future Tory-Lib Dem coalition government.

Mr Gove praised Mr Laws who said was 'thoughtful, flexible' and could 'easily' play a role in a coalition Cabinet.

Gordon Brown and Sarah leave church before heading back to London where Brown is meeting senior Labour ministers

'The precise shape of cooperation between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats is something that is up for grabs at the moment,' Mr Gove told BBC1's The Andrew Marr Show.


'There may be options between those two that suit both sides.'

He said that the aim was to establish a government on 'the most stable foundation possible'.

'It is up to the Liberal Democrats to decide the basis on which they wish to proceed. We are not attempting to sandbag or to manoeuvre them into a situation with which they are unhappy,' he said.

'We want to make sure that we can work together in the next few years.'


David Blunkett today said that Brown would walk if the Lib Dems and Tories could do a deal

Mr Gove also risked the wrath of other senior Tories by appearing to hold the door open to the possibility of a referendum on electoral reform.

But Mr Ashdown said: 'I don't believe that anybody can now establish a new government who is deaf to the calls from the British people for reform to our political system and part of that is electoral reform,' Lord Ashdown told Andrew Marr.

He pointed out that Mr Cameron's offer was no better than that made by Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath to Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe when he was trying to form a coalition after the 1974 general election.


Caroline Lucas smiles after becoming the first Green Party MP to get a seat in the Commons. She took the Brighton Pavilion seat from Labour.

'We have to assume that was an opening bargaining position. I am sure the Tories realise things have moved on from then,' he said.

Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes said that the Lib Dems remained 'very suspicious' of the Tories' willingness to accept electoral reform and he warned that there could still be 'irreconcilable differences' between them.

'The party would have to move significantly if they were to deliver this because they have sounded superficially accommodating but fundamentally pretty unreconstructed.

'The further you go away from the leadership, the more unreconstructed they are,' he told BBC News. So our party is very suspicious of the Tory Party being able to deliver.'

He said that if the talks with the Conservatives did fail, the Lib Dems could still talk to Labour.

'If that isn't possible then of course it is both constitutionally proper but also logical that we would then talk to the other of the three major parties, which is the Labour Party,' he said.

'Now, they appear more accommodating on these things. They may be more willing to be helpful.'

Mr Clegg held a secret face-to-face meeting with Tory leader David Cameron in Whitehall’s Admiralty House last night as they stepped up their bid to forge an historic deal between their two parties.

Afterwards, officials from both sides said the 70-minute meeting was ‘constructive and amicable’.

Up to four Cabinet seats may be offered to Mr Clegg’s party in an effort to push through a Tory-Lib Dem deal.

He will be offered the key posts of Home Secretary, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and two domestic portfolios in reward for getting Mr Cameron into No10.

In a message to Conservative supporters, Mr Cameron today reiterated that he would 'stand firm' on issues relating to immigration, defence, and the handover of further powers to the EU.

At the same time, there were areas where they could give ground to the Lib Dems - such as reducing taxes on the lowest paid.

'Of course, we hope to see a similarly constructive approach from the Liberal Democrats - not least on the urgent issue of tackling the deficit,' he said.

He added: 'Inevitably, these negotiations will involve compromise. But that's what working together in the national interest means.

Nick Clegg speaks to the media outside his house in London this morning as talks were set to continue between the Lib Dems and the Tories

'I hope we can sort things out as quickly as possible, for the good of the country. But we won't rush into any agreement.'

Speaking outside his London home, Mr Clegg said he had met with Mr Cameron yesterday and taken a call from Mr Brown.

'Everyone's trying to be constructive for the good of the country,' he said.

'I'm very keen that the Liberal Democrats should play a constructive role at a time of great economic uncertainty to provide a good government that this country deserves.

'Throughout that we will continue to be guided by the big changes we want - tax reform, improving education for all children, sorting out the banks and building a new economy from the rubble of the old, and extensive fundamental political reform.'


David Cameron pops out to pick up the Sunday papers this morning

As he arrived for the talks at the Cabinet Office with fellow members of the Conservative negotiating team, shadow foreign secretary William Hague said that they would be taking a 'constructive' approach to the discussions.

'We're very conscious of the need to provide the country with a new stable and legitimate government as soon as possible,' he said.

Yesterday it was revealed that Gordon Brown had exploded with rage at Mr Clegg when the Liberal Democrat leader suggested that the Prime Minister had no right to cling on to power after losing the Election.

The outline of a Cameron-Clegg pact emerged as pressure on Mr Brown to resign mounted. A BPIX survey for The Mail on Sunday showed that a total of 68 per cent of voters believe he should go now.

And a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times found that 62 per cent believe Mr Brown should have accepted defeat on Friday after it became clear that Labour was no longer the largest party in the House of Commons.

Even Labour MPs queued up to issue public calls for Mr Brown to go.


Vauxhall MP Kate Hoey - who served as sports minister under Tony Blair from 1999-2001 - said it would be impossible for Labour to achieve 'renewal' until it had a new leader.

Her comments follow a call yesterday from Bassetlaw MP John Mann for Mr Brown to stand down as Labour leader and PM, because he was losing the party votes and standing in the way of a credible coalition deal with Liberal Democrats.

And Graham Stringer - long-time critic of Mr Brown - became the third Labour MP since the election to publicly call for Mr Brown to stand down, warning that he was losing support in the party.

'I've probably spoken to about 15 Labour MPs since the election - some of them who have been very supportive of Gordon over the last three years, some of whom have been closer to my position - and not one of them thinks he should stay on,' he said.

The Prime Minister is said to have become angry on the phone when Mr Clegg questioned whether he was the right man to lead Labour after the defeat at the polls.

‘Nick merely raised the issue of whether it was the correct thing for Mr Brown to remain in office in view of the outcome of the Election,’ said a source.

‘It seemed perfectly legitimate and he was taken aback by the response. Mr Brown talks about working with others but he cannot stop being tribal.’

Liberal Democrat MPs say Mr Clegg ‘can’t stand’ Mr Brown. Officials denied the two men had rowed, but insiders insisted there was a heated disagreement.

Senior Labour figures including Work and Pensions Secretary Peter Hain and Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw have taken over the job of wooing the Lib Dems.

Mr Bradshaw claims the combined Labour and Liberal vote means there is a majority for what he calls the ‘Progressive Party.’




Cameron's Cabinet: Lib Dem MPs Vince Cable (top), Chris Huhne (centre) and David Laws (bottom) could be offered ministerial roles under a Tory-Lib Dem coalition

But Tory and Lib Dem officials insisted last night they remained ‘hopeful’ they would reach an agreement that would enable Mr Cameron to become Prime Minister, with considerable influence for Mr Clegg and his party.

William Hague will lead the Conservative team with Mr Laws in charge of the Liberal Democrat side.

Officials are increasingly confident the discussions will be successful.

Fears of a revolt by senior Liberal Democrats did not materialise when Mr Clegg met his MPs yesterday. Most were broadly supportive of his tactics. But Mr Cameron could face problems.

Right-wingers fear he may use a deal with the Lib Dems to alter Tory policies on Europe, global warming and other issues.

Enlarge


Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg already agree on a series of measures including pupil premiums to help children from disadvantaged backgrounds and scrapping Labour’s plan to impose a £6billion national insurance ‘jobs tax’ on employers.

The Tories have ruled out compromising on Trident nuclear submarines and immigration.

The main stumbling block remains the Lib Dems’ campaign to replace Britain’s voting system with proportional representation, which Tories fear could leave them in permanent exile from power.

The first sign of a possible breakthrough came after Mr Clegg appeared to signal a subtle shift in his stance. In a brief statement yesterday, he talked of the need for ‘political reform’ instead of electoral reform.

Mr Cameron is already committed to ‘political reform’ such as a ten per cent cut in the number of MPs.


dailymail.co.uk
 
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SirJosephPorter

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I don't see Brown staying on. It looks like Tories and Lib Dems will form a coalition. If they don't, we are talking of total chaos. Labour and Lib Dems combined don't have enough votes to govern.

The big question is, will the electoral reform be the sticking point? If Tories flatly turn down the demand for electoral reform, do Lib Dems have a plan B?
 

Bar Sinister

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Jan 17, 2010
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Hung parliament? In Canada we call it a minority government. Is it called a hung parliament in Britain because its MP are particularly well endowed?
 

FiveParadox

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Re: "Hung Parliament" in the United Kingdom

If that’s the case, Bar Sinister, perhaps it’s British politics I should be after! :lol:
____________​

I actually hope that The Right Honourable Gordon Brown P.C., M.P. (Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath), the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, has the chance to stay on as the head of Government for some time to come. Notwithstanding statements by The Right Honourable Nick Clegg P.C., M.P. (Sheffield Hallam), the Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the fact of the matter is that this general election did not resoundingly reject the leadership of Her Majesty’s Government; our constitutional framework dictates that the prime minister (not necessarily the leader of the party with the largest plurality) have the first chance to meet the newly-formed House of Commons.

Considering the fact that there are going to be very difficult (and most probably unpopular) decisions to be made in the very near future, it would make a lot of sense for a prime minister who is clearly not going to last until the next general election to make those tough decisions so that the next Government can be the most stable one possible. Peace, order and good government should be the guiding lights as political leaders in the United Kingdom traverse these uncommon* constitutional waters (*for the United Kingdom, at least).
 

Cliffy

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If that’s the case, Bar Sinister, perhaps it’s British politics I should be after! :lol:
Wasn't there a recent pole that found the British to be the worst lovers. Probably because they're all water logged.

Wonders will never cease. I am in agreement with Jack - who cares about their politics. It certainly isn't worth a 10 thousand word cut & paste like this.
 

SirJosephPorter

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Hung parliament? In Canada we call it a minority government. Is it called a hung parliament in Britain because its MP are particularly well endowed?


I have already mentioned it, Bar. Canada is a bit of an oddball in this respect. Usually when no party has a clear majority, there is a coalition and the coalition commands an absolute majority. That is what they are doing in Britain, they are forming a coalition. The coalition (Tories and lib Dems) will have an absolute emajority. The other party in the coalition, Lib Dems probably will have seats in the cabinet. When James Callahan (Labour) had a minority government, he also governed with a coalition.

The way we do things here, where the biggest party forms the government on its own, and the rest of the parties may support it or not as they wish, is not how things are done in most democracies.

Minority government is not the same as hung Parliament. In most counties, a hung Parliament results in coalition government, not a minority government. Unless parties cannot agree on a coalition. Then there is a minority government, it is defeated at the first opportunity and they have early elections.
 

YukonJack

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The British Elections was just another clear example of the idiocy of a multi-party system with no run-off elections to determine a 50% +1 clear winner.
 

SirJosephPorter

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The British Elections was just another clear example of the idiocy of a multi-party system with no run-off elections to determine a 50% +1 clear winner.

How can you have run off election between parties? If no party gets 50% votes, are we supposed to have another election with just the top two parties (Libs, Cons in Canada or Lab, Con in Britain) and leave all the other parties out in the cold?

Runoff elections are OK when persons are fighting in election, whether president, chancellor etc. Run off elections are nonsense in a Parliamentary democracy.
 

SirJosephPorter

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The contrast between Canada and Britain shows how much of an oddball Canada is. When Paul Martin lost the election, Conservatives became the biggest party, Martin automatically resigned and Harper became the PM. There was no talk of forming coalition, partnerships etc. It was then up to the individual parties whether they wanted to support the minority government or not. If they had tried, it is quite possible that Liberals and NDP could have formed a coalition here and governed as a coalition, rather than Harper governing as a minority.

But what is happening in Britain is mere typical of Parliamentary system than what happened in Canada.
 

YukonJack

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Many countries have run-off elections, when the initial election did not produce a clear winner.

Party leaders get to be party leaders the same way.

If it is good for some countries, and good for individuals, why subject the country to a useless and painful sentence and the looming uncertainty of minority governments?

Only fools who think that 36-39% gives mandate to any party to govern would oppose the only logical way of run-off elections.
 

Bar Sinister

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I have already mentioned it, Bar. Canada is a bit of an oddball in this respect. Usually when no party has a clear majority, there is a coalition and the coalition commands an absolute majority. That is what they are doing in Britain, they are forming a coalition. The coalition (Tories and lib Dems) will have an absolute emajority. The other party in the coalition, Lib Dems probably will have seats in the cabinet. When James Callahan (Labour) had a minority government, he also governed with a coalition.

The way we do things here, where the biggest party forms the government on its own, and the rest of the parties may support it or not as they wish, is not how things are done in most democracies.

Minority government is not the same as hung Parliament. In most counties, a hung Parliament results in coalition government, not a minority government. Unless parties cannot agree on a coalition. Then there is a minority government, it is defeated at the first opportunity and they have early elections.

What I object to in this is the term "hung parliament" which clearly has a negative connotation. So far as I know the term is unique to Britain. In more democratic parts of the world where coalition governments are the norm the term is never used. I suspect this is a ploy by the British media to put as bad a light on the vote as possible. But then there is nothing new about media spin and exaggeration.
 

SirJosephPorter

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The British media did not invent the term just recently. Traditionally a Parliament where no party has a majority is known as hung Parliament. But you are right; ‘hung Parliament’ is the order of the day in most democracies, especially where they have proportional representation.
 

JLM

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"Only fools who think that 36-39% gives mandate to any party to govern would oppose the only logical way of run-off elections."

Not so fast Y.J. - where there are two leaders obviously not, where there are 3 or more the answer could well be "obviously so".