Obama’s Speech in Egypt: A Seminal moment?
- Thread starter SirJosephPorter
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Certainly not, he is a long shot anyway. Ahmadinejad is favored to win. However, the opposition seems to have energized since Obama's speech, I don't know if there is a connection.
Besides, I am not sure that the elections in Iran are free and fair. The elections are probably rigged by the Ayatollahs in favour of their candidate, in this case Ahmadinejad.
His opponent is still a long shot to win, but if he does win, I think Obama’s speech would have a lot to do with it. But if he doesn’t’ win, that does not say anything about Obama’s speech (he is a long shot, a dark horse).
So you win all around? :lol:
If Ahmadinejad loses it is because Obama's speech but if he wins it has nothing at all to do with his speech. How very Joey like.
His speech was just words and the Middle East didn't buy it.
You got that right. Obama’s speech seems to have energized the opposition to Ahmadinejad. But we don’t know if that is enough to win. If his opponent wins, that means that speech made a huge difference. If he wins, that means that Obama’s speech made some difference, but not enough to influence the outcome.
His speech was just words and the Middle East didn't buy it.
It may be just a speech, but it has already had two effects that I can see. One is that it contributed to anti-Hezbollah faction winning the election in Lebanon. The outcome was very much in doubt. Obama gave a speech and anti-Hezbollah group was elected. Whether there is a connection there, we don’t know. I think there may well be a connection.
The second is that it seems to have energized the opposition to Ahmadinejad. We don’t know if that is enough to defeat him. But as far as I am concerned, Obama’s speech has already made a difference.
So Obama's speech energized the opposition? :lol:
I think not. I just think you adore Obama and he can do no wrong. I think that you think Obama s**** Tiffany cuff links.
Ahamadinejad will win and Obama's speech will have done nothing to influence the election. Besides...the Revolutionary Council are the real rulers of Iran. The Iranian President is the mouth piece of the Council.
Ahamadinejad will win and Obama's speech will have done nothing to influence the election. Besides...the Revolutionary Council are the real rulers of Iran.
That is what I said, EagleSmack. The elections are probably rigged, and Ahamadinejad will probably win. But if he loses, I will attribute that in no small part to the speech by Obama.
That is what I said, EagleSmack. The elections are probably rigged, and Ahamadinejad will probably win. But if he loses, I will attribute that in no small part to the speech by Obama.
So Obama's speech energized the opposition?
It certainly seems to have. Until about a week ago, the election was pretty much a done deal, now the opposition is very much energized. It happened right after Obama speech. As to if there is a connection, who knows? But I think there is.
It certainly seems to have. Until about a week ago, the election was pretty much a done deal, now the opposition is very much energized. It happened right after Obama speech. As to if there is a connection, who knows? But I think there is.
Oh I have no doubt at all about that. You're his best cheerleader here.
If the opposition wins it will be Obama's doing but if they lose Obama will be blameless...so to speak.
Too funny.
Everything that comes out of Iran is approved by the Council. The election IS a done deal. Obama's speech has no bearing whatsoever and Iran has said that clearly...words are words.
You know what I think? I think the Middle East has already forgotten that speech.
Amadinejad is four times the human being that scumbag Oblowme is. Rigged elections have been a Yankee staple for a hundred years, at least. On a lighter note I'm beginning to wonder about your intellectual posture, it seems to me that you may have more than just political interest in this pretty boy.
Eagle good day to you, man I read your posts and you are on the path believing that Obama brought America to the hated profile it has in the Middle East today. Look man whether the Middle East forgot the speech or not, Iran is definitely not the panacea of peace and order, they are the most deceptive nation ON THE FACE OF THIS PLANET. The Middle East has problems that are not caused by the US. 80 % OF terrorism in the MEADLE EAST IS FINANCE BY IRAN AND LIBIA. YOU ARE SITING HERE THROWING ROCKS AT OBAMA, WHY IS THAT FAIR?
I am not disagreeing with you in the slightest about Iran. I agree with you 100% there.
But why should I worship at the Obama Temple like others here do?
I am merely saying his speech has no bearing on the Middle East in this instance. Joey here is saying that if Ahmadinejad loses it will be because of Obama and if he wins it will NOT be because of Obama. Either way it is rosy.
I am merely saying his speech has no bearing on the Middle East in this instance.
Really, EagleSmack? Are you an expert on Middle East?
Joey here is saying that if Ahmadinejad loses it will be because of Obama and if he wins it will NOT be because of Obama.
And what is wrong with that? Ahmadinejad losing would be such an unlikely event that many factors will have contributed to it, including the speech by Obama. If he wins, that is to be expected, why blame Obama for it? He would have won, Obama speech or no. However, if he loses, in my opinion, some credit will go to Obama’s speech.
But why should I worship at the Obama Temple like others here do?
I assume you worshiped at the Bush temple.
Really, EagleSmack? Are you an expert on Middle East?
Joey here is saying that if Ahmadinejad loses it will be because of Obama and if he wins it will NOT be because of Obama.
And what is wrong with that? Ahmadinejad losing would be such an unlikely event that many factors will have contributed to it, including the speech by Obama. If he wins, that is to be expected, why blame Obama for it? He would have won, Obama speech or no. However, if he loses, in my opinion, some credit will go to Obama’s speech.
But why should I worship at the Obama Temple like others here do?
I assume you worshiped at the Bush temple.
Hell yeah I am.
You either win...or you don't lose... very JP of you. You are really going out on a limb with this aren't you?
You know what happens when people assume don't you?
If you believe that's true, then you should place a bet:
I would also bet Moussavi winning the election. Most Iranians are young people with moderate or even pro-west attitudes. Moussavi appears to have their support and motivated them to vote. Last election, most young people and moderates didn't bother to vote and Ahmadinejad was the result.
You should read up on the Iranian political system.
Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Their system is relatively democratic and their elections are fair. I'd say their theocratic system is about as free and fair as our plutocratic system. Their system is unduly influenced by religious leaders. Ours is unduly influenced by an elite class of wealthy and powerful people.
To summarize the Iranian political system:
The Supreme Leader has the final say on all matters. He isn't quite a figurehead like Canada's Monarchy or Governor General, but his influence is more on the side of control of the military/intelligence and determining foreign policy. He also appoints people to important positions in government. In turn the Supreme Leader is elected, dismissed and supervised by an elected Assembly of Experts.
The Assembly of Experts are Islamic Scholars elected by universal suffrage. Technically they have power and influence, but in practice they rubber stamp Supreme Leader decisions. They only exercise real power when the Supreme Leader dies.
Since the revolution, only two people have occupied the post of Supreme Leader.
The next most powerful person is the President. Candidates are approved by the Council of Guardians. The President is then elected by universal suffrage, which happens this week. The President controls or influences domestic policy along with the Islamic Consultive assembly.
Candidates for the Islamic Consultive Assembly, are approved by the Guardian Council. Then the 290 member Assembly is elected by universal suffrage, just like the President. Five seats are reserved for religious minorities.
The Guardian Council consists of 12 people. Six are Islamic Jurists appointed by the Supreme Leader and six are legal experts elected by Islamic Consultive Assembly. Unlike Assembly of experts, the Guardian Council has real power and exercises it.
Cut to the chase... Once candidates for President and the Islamic Consultive Assembly are approved by the Guardian Council, they are elected by universal suffrage.
In practice, the Iranian people have about as much influence in who runs their country as Canadians. They elect most of their leaders by universal suffrage in free and fair elections.
In Canada, we elect most of our leaders by universal suffrage in free and fair elections. In practice, people with money or people backed by people with money win elections with few exceptions. We don't directly elect our Prime Minister. Our PM is determined by their party's internal political machinery. If Ignatieff ever become PM, he won't even have been elected. The PM appoints people to important posts in government including Senators, Supreme Court judges and the Govenor General. Ultimately everyone is under the authority of an unelected Monarchy.
Neither system is a true democracy. Both Canadians and Iranians have free and fair elections. But neither can claim to have directly elected their supreme leader.
Quote:
I assume you worshiped at the Bush temple.
You know what happens when people assume don't you? - EagleSmack
EagleSmack, and presumably you don’t (when you assume that I worship at Obama temple).
I assume you worshiped at the Bush temple.
You know what happens when people assume don't you? - EagleSmack
EagleSmack, and presumably you don’t (when you assume that I worship at Obama temple).
Bettors are picking Mir Hussein Moussavi to unseat Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the country's elections this Friday: bets on Moussavi are trading at 55 (indicating a consensus 55 percent likelihood); Ahmadinejad's at 40.1 (40.1 consensus probability)...
Earth_as_one, I did not know that, but it certainly is interesting.
I would also bet Moussavi winning the election. Most Iranians are young people with moderate or even pro-west attitudes. Moussavi appears to have their support and motivated them to vote. Last election, most young people and moderates didn't bother to vote and Ahmadinejad was the result.
The problem is that there are no opinion polls in Iran, so it is purely guesswork. It should be interesting to know what the bettors place their conclusion on. I certainly hope that Moussavi wins.
Earth_as_one, I did not know that, but it certainly is interesting.
I would also bet Moussavi winning the election. Most Iranians are young people with moderate or even pro-west attitudes. Moussavi appears to have their support and motivated them to vote. Last election, most young people and moderates didn't bother to vote and Ahmadinejad was the result.
The problem is that there are no opinion polls in Iran, so it is purely guesswork. It should be interesting to know what the bettors place their conclusion on. I certainly hope that Moussavi wins.